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What will move Mortgage Rates? This weeks Economic Calendar 9/14/09

By
Mortgage and Lending with CMG Home Loans NMLS 248937

 

Last week was the 6th straight week of modest gains we have seen in Mortgage backed securities. Unfortunately we had a bit of a sell off Friday Afternoon that wiped out a really nice gain for the day, but overall the week still ended up with Fannie Prices UP 8/32nds. That is enough for rates to be down a little making homes more affordable.

This week is a mix of data with Infation reports and some Fed speak to mix things up a bit:

  • Monday September 14: Its a no major news day. The market started the day off enough to wipe out last week's gain, but has since flattened out and is only off 2/32nds as I type.
  • Tuesday September 15: Happy Birthday to... Well You know who you are! 
  • Tuesday: August Producer Price Index expected +.8% with a core of +.1%. The core level is the key here, showing little inflation pressure at the wholesale level. As forecast this is supportive of steady to possibly lower rates.
  • Tuesday: August Retail sales expected +2% x-auto+0.4%. Cash For Clunkers.. Well look at the number and you will see that it worked, for cars at least. The balance was a weak back to school spending surge. Not likely to move the market.
  • Tuesday: July Business Inventory expected -0.9%. July is OLD news at this point, so probably not much more than a Yawner. But it is a sign that we will see future production since the inventory numbers have been negative all year.
  • Tuesday:(again)...  Fed Chair Bernake speaks at a conference in DC "Reflections on a year of Crisis". This is expected to be a re-run of his speech made in WY in August. What we want to pay close attention to here is if he talks about closing the Fed Check book up since we are fast approaching October when the Fed is stepping out as a buyer of Treasuries and Mortgages. I don't expect there will be anything new here so it is not a likely market mover.
  • Wednesday September 16: My 20th Wedding Anniversary...
  • Wednesday: August Consumer Price Index expected +0.3% with a core rate of +0.1%. With a core that low the market should be happy and will be supportive of steady rates.
  • Wednesday: August Industrial Production expected +0.6% and Capacity 69.0. This is a bump up from last month but is mostly due to Auto Production and inventory re building.... Not likely to be a market mover.
  • Thursday September 17: Initial Jobless Claims expected up 5,000. not likely to move mortgage rates.
  • Thursday: August Housing starts expected +3.2% and building permits expected +0.7%. This is a pretty modest UP, not likely to be any issue today.
  • Friday: No significant news on the calendar.

Looking at the calendar it is probably going to be a quiet week, UNLESS we get a big shocker on CPI or PPI and possibly Retail sales. The markets doubt that there is a sustained economic recovery in the near term and inflation will most likely be calm as well... All supportive of steady to possibly lower rates for now.

So I dont see a real Biggie of the week. A wild card perhaps in the Bernake Speach if he happens to say he will keep the check book open for the rest of the year, that would make the market happy and will likely lower rates. But that is truly a wild card that we cant anticipate.

Thanks for reading, I hope this helps you understand what moves the market each day.

Have a great week

Rob

Robert Rauf

Mortgage Banker

www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com   or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf

(732)223-1630 x102

Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership!

Real Estate Mortgage Network

REMN

 

 

 

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Comments (7)

Donne Knudsen
Los Angeles & Ventura Counties in CA - Simi Valley, CA
CalState Realty Services

Rob - a nice quiet week is good.  I'll take that.  I need a nice and quiet week right now.  LOL

Sep 14, 2009 04:43 PM
Toula Rosebrock
Diane Turton, Realtors, Forked River, NJ - Lacey Township, NJ
Broker/Sales Associate, Realtor, Lacey Township,

ToulaRosebrock,com

Hi Rob:

A pretty eventful week for you!

Hope you had a Happy Birthday and Happy Anniversary!!!

I had noticed your birthday message on FB also the other day...

Sep 15, 2009 12:09 AM
Robert Rauf
CMG Home Loans - Toms River, NJ

Hi Toula, Yes every week is eventful!  Especially in September.

Good Morning Donne!  Hope you have a quiet week!

Sep 15, 2009 01:36 AM
Mike Jones
SUNSTREET MORTGAGE, LLC (BK-0907366, NMLS 145171) - Tucson, AZ
Mike Jones NMLS 223495

Robert,

You said something that I know nothing about:  October [is] when the Fed is stepping out as a buyer of Treasuries and Mortgages.  Why is that?

Mike in Tucson

Sep 15, 2009 02:11 AM
Robert Rauf
CMG Home Loans - Toms River, NJ

Mike, Since the Fed cant lower rates anymore (fed funds pretty much at 0%) they have been a big buyer in the credit markets helping to calm the waters and stepping in as a buyer when the proverbial Sh-- hits the fan.  This has been their way of keeping long term rates low. That "checkbook" is closing up in October when that piece of the stimulus package expires.

The Fed is expected to own over a Trillion dollars in residential mortgages by time this all shakes out.

Basic supply and demand, you lose a big buyer and it may hurt the price... lower price on a credit instrument means a higher yield.

Sep 15, 2009 02:18 AM
Jim Valentine
RE/MAX Realty Affiliates - Gardnerville, NV

Robert - If you buy a big enough diamond for your anniversary you will certainly affect the economy!  LOL  Thanks for the informative post. 

Sep 16, 2009 02:11 AM
Robert Rauf
CMG Home Loans - Toms River, NJ

Thanks Jim, NO diamonds this year... I have the recession as an excuse :)

Sep 16, 2009 04:22 AM