Last week was the 6th straight week of modest gains we have seen in Mortgage backed securities. Unfortunately we had a bit of a sell off Friday Afternoon that wiped out a really nice gain for the day, but overall the week still ended up with Fannie Prices UP 8/32nds. That is enough for rates to be down a little making homes more affordable.
This week is a mix of data with Infation reports and some Fed speak to mix things up a bit:
- Monday September 14: Its a no major news day. The market started the day off enough to wipe out last week's gain, but has since flattened out and is only off 2/32nds as I type.
- Tuesday September 15: Happy Birthday to... Well You know who you are!
- Tuesday: August Producer Price Index expected +.8% with a core of +.1%. The core level is the key here, showing little inflation pressure at the wholesale level. As forecast this is supportive of steady to possibly lower rates.
- Tuesday: August Retail sales expected +2% x-auto+0.4%. Cash For Clunkers.. Well look at the number and you will see that it worked, for cars at least. The balance was a weak back to school spending surge. Not likely to move the market.
- Tuesday: July Business Inventory expected -0.9%. July is OLD news at this point, so probably not much more than a Yawner. But it is a sign that we will see future production since the inventory numbers have been negative all year.
- Tuesday:(again)... Fed Chair Bernake speaks at a conference in DC "Reflections on a year of Crisis". This is expected to be a re-run of his speech made in WY in August. What we want to pay close attention to here is if he talks about closing the Fed Check book up since we are fast approaching October when the Fed is stepping out as a buyer of Treasuries and Mortgages. I don't expect there will be anything new here so it is not a likely market mover.
- Wednesday September 16: My 20th Wedding Anniversary...
- Wednesday: August Consumer Price Index expected +0.3% with a core rate of +0.1%. With a core that low the market should be happy and will be supportive of steady rates.
- Wednesday: August Industrial Production expected +0.6% and Capacity 69.0. This is a bump up from last month but is mostly due to Auto Production and inventory re building.... Not likely to be a market mover.
- Thursday September 17: Initial Jobless Claims expected up 5,000. not likely to move mortgage rates.
- Thursday: August Housing starts expected +3.2% and building permits expected +0.7%. This is a pretty modest UP, not likely to be any issue today.
- Friday: No significant news on the calendar.
Looking at the calendar it is probably going to be a quiet week, UNLESS we get a big shocker on CPI or PPI and possibly Retail sales. The markets doubt that there is a sustained economic recovery in the near term and inflation will most likely be calm as well... All supportive of steady to possibly lower rates for now.
So I dont see a real Biggie of the week. A wild card perhaps in the Bernake Speach if he happens to say he will keep the check book open for the rest of the year, that would make the market happy and will likely lower rates. But that is truly a wild card that we cant anticipate.
Thanks for reading, I hope this helps you understand what moves the market each day.
Have a great week
Rob
Mortgage Banker
www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf
(732)223-1630 x102
Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership!
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