Measuring Home Sales Success

By
Real Estate Agent with Joe Manausa Real Estate 8508880888

Home sellers in Tallahassee are finding it a little easier to sell a home in Tallahassee as home selling success rate trends are equal to the levels that we were experiencing back in early January of this year. It appears as if the trend is going to continue higher as well.

Sales Success Trend Improving

By tracking the one-year trend of home selling success rates, we can observe the overall ease (or difficulty) of getting a home sold in Tallahassee, without interference from the seasonal affects that are found in shorter trends. The following real estate graph shows the short term trend and long-term trend of home selling success rates in Tallahassee.

Tallahassee Real Estate Market Inventory Sales Success Trend September 30 2009

The home sales success trend is measured by dividing the total number of homes sold during a period of time into the total number of homes listed during that same period of time. The result is not the actual success rate of homes selling during that time, but the general movement of this trend gives potential home sellers in Tallahassee a feel for the change in ease or difficulty in getting a home sold.

In the graph above, the blue field is the non seasonal one-year trend of the home sales success rate in Tallahassee. This number has been rising since mid-April and now registers at 38% (meaning total sales ÷ total listings = 38% for the past 12 months). The shorter trends indicate that this number will continue to rise for the near future.

Home Sellers Helping Home Sales Success

You might wonder why this trend is improving, I certainly did. In Tallahassee, we are still seeing roughly 1 in every 3 homes listed actually get sold (meaning there is currently 1 buyer for every 3 homes for sale in Tallahassee). So why the steady increase in home sales success?

 

 

 

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Anonymous
Thomas Drozd

 I would like to think that some of what you are experiencing may be what the market is feeling overall.  Many profesional in the real estate market are trying to predict the bottom of the market, in terms of falling home prices, and using this to get buyers to feel confident about buying.  In New Jersey homes have fallen about 20% of their value since 2006 (of course when I purchased my existing home!) and none of us can re-finance if we wanted to.  But my feeling isthat we ave seen the bottom and now more than ever is the time to buy or refinance to get the best deal possible that may not be seen for many years.

<A href="http://www.njmortgageloansource.com">mortgagaes, homes, loans, loan source,nj homes, nj loan source,nj mortgages</A>

 

 

Sep 29, 2009 11:44 PM #2
Rainmaker
550,663
The Scott Loper Team Bux-Mont Premier Properties
Keller Williams Real Estate - Montgomeryville - Lansdale, PA

Great statistic (sales success trend).  It would be interesting to look at a graph like this that goes several years back.  That way, one might be better able to see whether there is actual improvment in sales or if it is just more of a repeated seasonal pattern.  I suspect that a large part of the upswing in the shorter trends is due to the lag between when homes are listed and when they actually sell.  In our area for example, July through September is when the number of closed sales typically peaks (those homes probably went under contract ~ 2months prior to settling), but the number of new listings that appear in July - September falls off from its peak earlier in the year.  I'm going to try running this measure for the sales in my county.

-Scott

Sep 30, 2009 12:33 AM #3
Ambassador
1,987,374
Fernando Herboso - Broker for Maxus Realty Group
Maxus Realty Group - Broker 301-246-0001 - Gaithersburg, MD
301-246-0001 Serving Maryland, DC and Northern VA

Joe. . I vote this to be one of the most informative charts in Activerain. . great job!

Sep 30, 2009 12:51 AM #4
Rainer
37,160
Jim & Cathy Wood Greater Nashville Area Real Estate
Crye-Leike Realtors, Inc. - Mount Juliet, TN

Joe-

You're a wizard with numbers.

Your selling season is the opposite of ours. Here we slow down in November and buyers don't come back till late March.

Sep 30, 2009 02:21 AM #5
Rainer
80,895
Gene perez
Greater Mortgage Solutions & Valley Hills Realty - Santa Maria, CA

looks like your neck of the woods is not doing too bad

Sep 30, 2009 03:00 AM #6
Rainmaker
288,972
Pippa Mac
Chevaux Group Realtor, The Woodlands and Spring - The Woodlands, TX
The Woodlands TX Real Estate

Wow ... what a great chart and easy to read statistics.  Thank you for sharing!  pippa

Sep 30, 2009 03:16 AM #7
Rainer
24,202
Rashel Beaver
Phoenix, AZ

Nice chart. Great to your area is doing so well. Thanks for the post.

Sep 30, 2009 03:39 AM #8
Rainmaker
231,989
Emily Lowe
The Lipman Group | Sotheby's International Realty - Nashville, TN
Nashville TN Realtor

Wow - I really like this chart Joe - did you do this yourself?  Great idea!

Sep 30, 2009 06:59 AM #9
Rainer
332,763
David O'Doherty
Raleigh Realty Inc - Clayton, NC
Clayton NC Homes, Raleigh, NC

Great charts Joe, I hope the trend is spreading.

Sep 30, 2009 07:01 AM #10
Rainmaker
709,157
Petra Norris
Lakeland Real Estate Group, Inc. - Lakeland, FL
Realtor, Lakeland FL Homes for Sale

Joe - once again, you never seize to amaze me by your outstanding reports and graphs. I remember that you have done a tutorial on graphs - basic. Isn't it about time to show a intermediate/advanced tutorial on doing graphs :)

BTW, there is no doubt that you know your market really well from your detailed reports. Congratulations on your gold star :)

Sep 30, 2009 07:45 AM #11
Rainmaker
1,179,549
Joe Manausa
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Tallahassee Real Estate

Wow Lenn. I am truly honored with your kind words. Thank you!

Sep 30, 2009 08:58 AM #12
Rainmaker
1,179,549
Joe Manausa
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Tallahassee Real Estate

Thanks Thomas. I feel like we have reached the bottom on transactions in Tallahassee (as noted in previous posts), but I unfortunately am confident that prices in Tallahassee will continue to decline until the supply levels get closer to 6.0 months of supply. Hopefully, your market is already there. Nationally, we are just under 9 months of supply, so I suspect pricing pressures will continue for some time.

Sep 30, 2009 09:01 AM #13
Rainmaker
1,179,549
Joe Manausa
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Tallahassee Real Estate

Thank you Fernando. It is really great to get positive feedback like this and i appreciate your kind words.

Sep 30, 2009 09:02 AM #14
Rainmaker
1,179,549
Joe Manausa
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Tallahassee Real Estate

Thanks Scott, but if you study it closely, you'll see that this is nearly two years worth of info. The one year trend removes any affect that seasonality would bring. The shorter trends show you the seasonal effects.

Sep 30, 2009 09:03 AM #15
Rainmaker
1,179,549
Joe Manausa
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Tallahassee Real Estate

Thanks Emily. I have a great lady in my office, Carol Palacios, who records the "hotsheet" data every day for me. We begun this project on March 3, 2008 and have recorded daily hotsheet info ever since.

Sep 30, 2009 09:05 AM #16
Rainmaker
1,179,549
Joe Manausa
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Tallahassee Real Estate

Jim, actually our season is exactly the same, slower in September through March. The reason the sales success is rising is not seasonal, as this is a one-year trend (each point represents 365 days of information). This is purely an uptrend!

Sep 30, 2009 09:07 AM #17
Rainmaker
1,179,549
Joe Manausa
Joe Manausa Real Estate - Tallahassee, FL
Tallahassee Real Estate

Thank you Petra for your kind words. Believe it or not, I still only do the stuff in the basic video. Once you get all your graphs set up, you just keep updating the data. Maybe a new video is in order ....

Sep 30, 2009 09:08 AM #18
Rainer
45,729
Jeff Engle
Neighborly Realty - Lincoln, CA
PlacerAreaHomes.com

Well done.  And an intersting take on your situation.

Sep 30, 2009 09:42 AM #19
Rainmaker
1,079,379
Sharon Alters
Coldwell Banker Vanguard Realty - 904-673-2308 - Fleming Island, FL
Realtor - Homes for Sale Fleming Island FL

Joe, I noticed your charts and analysis early in my blogging career - and they are still some of the best!

Sep 30, 2009 10:24 AM #20
Rainmaker
1,542,870
Lyn Sims
RE/MAX Suburban - Schaumburg, IL
Schaumburg IL Real Estate

Joe, you're the best in telling the facts to either buyer or sellers in Tallahassee.  Trends that are as current as possible that you can use to your advantage whether a buyer or seller.  You always want to be ahead of or on the crest of the 'wave' never behind it.  This info shows that.

Sep 30, 2009 12:22 PM #21
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