Case Shiller Index Points to Stable Housing Market

By
Real Estate Agent with Windermere

 Seattle Case-Shiller Numbers:

 

You all know I love the Case SHiller index.  The numbers reported Tuesday are pointing once again to a recovery in the Seattle housing market.  Thou prices are down about 12% over the last year; they have only dropped about 2% since February and have remained flat since March.

Nationally, the index points to a 3% increase since March.

For over a year the housing market locally has be dominated by people who ‘need' to sell or buy because of job or life change.  People who ‘want' to move have remained on the sidelines.  Most have been hoping their values will climb back to peak levels.

We have just started to see people who ‘want ‘to move coming back into the market.  Some are motivated by the low interest rates but all have them have come to terms with the perceived loss in their home value.

But they have found great values available in the market.

Last year I predicted that home values would level off in May and I'm pleased to see that they have.

Baring any major event, I see the Seattle hocusing market continue to rebound with homes in the upper price ranges starting to move as attitudes change and money for jumbo loans  mimics conventional loans.

Months of Inventory for the Eastside Based on Pending sales:

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Washington King County Kirkland
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Rainer
245,400
John Rakoci
Eagle Realty - North Myrtle Beach, SC
North Myrtle Beach Coastal Carolinas

I like statistics. However, that is to include accurate statistics only. Case Shiller covers 20 metro areas that often do not reflect local markets. Recently they have decided to say some of their methods are flawed. Their numbers are near the overbuilt condo market here. However, those coming and looking for homes that have dropped those percentages are having a hard time understanding real estate is local and Case Shiller is not.

Oct 02, 2009 03:27 AM #1
Rainer
10,590
Bill Blanchard
Windermere - Kirkland, WA

Thanks for your comment and I agree.  But the numbers in my blog are for the Seattle Metro area and represent a measurable trend. I also see this trend reflected in my day to day business.  Thanks again for your comment.

Oct 02, 2009 03:39 AM #2
Rainmaker
110,308
Howard Goff
Keller Williams Realty - Vancouver, WA

John, of course all things have a local component. A rising tide only floats most boats andwith sinking tides. Even within our small county there are "hot" areas and "dead" areas. If I were to publish averages of Clark County, WA it would be as inaccurate as Case Shiller for the same reason. General statistics priovide a general indication, not a price for a specific property.

Bill, My curiosity with the Case Shiller numbers is the index has been at or below 110 for over 100 years. Is 140 the new normal (much as 110 was a new normal after WWII)?

If so what has changed to cause home prices to jump from a 50 year average of 110 to 140?

Is it that Case Shiller is somehow negatively biased such in that in a falling market (or maybe even in a rapidly changing market) it does not provide comparable values to what the index has been measuring over the past 50 or 100 years?

My fear is that the current level of 140 is only being supported due to massive government and FED price support measures which cannot continue indefinitely. I am interested in your thoughts.

Dec 20, 2009 06:31 AM #3
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Rainer
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Bill Blanchard

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