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The Rental Vacancy Rate Soars – How will This Affect Home Sales?

By
Real Estate Agent with The Buyers' Counsel

Apartment for rentThe vacancy rate for apartments and other rentals has now hit its highest point since 1986.  The slow job market has left a dent in the demand for housing, particularly during the recent summer rental months.  

This is not good news for home sellers since the air that is leaving the rental market will drive down the cost of rents, making renting a more desirable option for some potential home buyers. 

Reis Inc., a New York real-estate research firm that tracks vacancies and rents, reported that the U. S. vacancy rates reached 7.8%, a 23-year high in the top 79 rental markets.  During the winter months, when demand is typically weaker, that rate may climb even higher.  

The primary driver of this situation is, of course, the high rate of unemployment.  With unemployment currently at 9.5%, a 26 year high, would-be renters are finding other solutions to their housing problems, such as staying home with families or moving in with friends.  

Landlords have been stepping up to the plate with incentives - freshly painting and scrubbing units as well as offering a free month's rent in some cases. 

This is a night-and-day departure from the experience of renters who looked for places to live in the boom years, often paying broker fees and feeling pressured into grabbing an apartment before it was gone.  The power position has switched and has now been put into the renters' hands.  

As rents drop to compete for demand, home prices at the lower end of the market could see a downturn.  If a person can rent a home for less than a mortgage payment, some may choose to sit on the sidelines and wait this one out. 

Although there has recently been some stabilization in housing sales, low to moderately priced home sales could possibly feel the effect of the current rental market's woes.  

Further pressure is being exerted by the impending expiration of the $8,000 home buyer tax credit since it has been viewed as a factor that has motivated the market this year.  Analyst are warning that demand for home purchases could fall with the tax expiration and the supply of homes could increase as more foreclosures hit the market.

Could the increase in the vacancy rate add more fuel to the debate over whether or not it is a good idea to let the $8,000 tax incentive expire?

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Posted by

 

Claudette Millette
The Buyers' Counsel - Ashland, MA
Buyer, Broker - Metrowest Mass

Steve:

So, you are seeing an increase in rentals in your area.  The higher priced units will probably have to lower their rents if the trend continues.

Craig:

I agree that some people will always choose buying over renting. However, I think the lower priced, entry-level properties may suffer if the perception is that renting is cheaper than buying, in addition to the fact that credit is currently tight.

Tina:

Thanks for that.

 

 

 

 

 

Oct 13, 2009 05:29 AM
Claudette Millette
The Buyers' Counsel - Ashland, MA
Buyer, Broker - Metrowest Mass

Gene:

Once again, all real estate is local and your area seems to be against the trend right now if demand is still high.

 

Oct 13, 2009 05:33 AM
Michelle Fradella-Barfuss
Broker, Marketing Coach, Trainer - Red Rock Real Estate - Salt Lake City, UT
Author of "Top 10 Mistakes Agents Make When Market

Good post, Claudette.  We are experiencing the same thing here in Picayune in South Mississippi.  From 1995-2007, we were an area that rentals were very hard to come by, but now we are seeing a huge amount of properties up for rent, and new duplexes being built, from Federal Funding, all over the place.  Not a good situation for our market.

~Michelle Fradella, Broker

Pinnacle Real Estate Services

http://www.picayunehomefinder.com

 

Oct 13, 2009 06:33 AM
Myrtle "Mert" Lemon
Nomel Real Estate, Eagle One Appraisal - Hagerstown, MD
Certified Appraiser & Real Estate Broker

WORD OF CAUTION WITH OWNERS RENTING THEIR PROPERTIES TO AVOID FORECLOSURE.  I have a nephew that rented a property several months ago, they had since been informed the property is now in foreclosure and had to move. They were paying their rent, the landlord was NOT making the payment. Luckily he was able to find another rental quickly, having 3 small children. It would be smart for the tenant to require proof of current standing with landlords mortgage. Hows that for a turn a round!! I know if we list a rental property in Maryland we are to verify they are current with their payment, but what about those not using a broker. (I'm a real estate broker plus an appraiser) 

Oct 13, 2009 06:46 AM
Carl Schumacher
CIDM Real Estate - Grand Rapids, MI

Just lowered my asking rent on two more units I own. Will now be receiving $150.00 a month less for each unit while taxes continue to rise and values continue to fall. What a country! Every prospective tenant asks if I can pay their utilities for them too. Doubling up in these 2 bed units means they are each paying a whopping total of $250.00 a month each for rent and still struggling? I paid $450.00 for a single back in 1982. What's in it for me? Nothing but bills apparently. The insurance policy I have to carry is more than the replacement cost of some of these units. It would be more profitable to burn them down right now. Then everyone could collect $0.00 just like me. Where's my bailout?

Carl S

Oct 13, 2009 07:07 AM
Brad Calef
Coco Plum Realtors - Key Colony Beach, FL

I am not sure if it adds fuel to that fire but the rising vacancy rate is certainly a growing concern ~ Brad

Oct 13, 2009 07:32 AM
Mike Henderson
Your complete source for buying HUD homes - Littleton, CO
HUD Home Hub - 303-949-5848

Interesting post.  In Denver it is a different experience.  I work mostly with investors so I am very familiar with the market.  I sold a 4/2/2 to my client in June for 71K.  He had to put between 11-13K in improvements into the property.  He is renting this for $1150 a month.  Heck of a deal for my client.  Doesn't it make more sense for a homebuyer to buy rather than rent?  For the first time in forever the pricing of homes is based on the rent vs. buy equation it makes sense to buy. 

This is what is clearing out the low end of the market.  Throw in the tax credit for first time buyers and it's impossible to find deals like that one.  More first time buyers, lack of foreclosure inventory and the market is changing.  Amazing how equilibrium works.  Adam Smith was right after all.

Oct 13, 2009 03:20 PM
Dianne Hicks
Realty ONE Group - Poway, CA

I with Judy on this one. With all the foreclosures and short sales you would think that the rental market would be booming. Where are they?

Oct 14, 2009 02:34 AM
Lyn Sims
Schaumburg, IL
Real Estate Broker Retired

I wrote about this a few months ago where my seller can save $500 a month by renting. She has been cut back by 40% and can no longer afford her home.  I have just recently seen 'free rent' signs all over the place with enticements just this week.  Could be the colder weather coming early here but I never noticed so many 'one month free' signs before.

Oct 14, 2009 04:35 AM
Jirius Isaac
Isaac Real Estate &TriStar Mortgage - Kenmore, WA
Real Estate & loans in Kenmore, WA

I have not raised the rental rate on my rentals for 5 years now.  I am afreaid that next , they will ask me for a discount.  It also seems harder to find good tenants beacuse of the unemployment situation.  Not much fun.

Oct 14, 2009 04:42 AM
Carl Schumacher
CIDM Real Estate - Grand Rapids, MI

"I have not raised the rental rate on my rentals for 5 years now."

I'm in a similar situation. I don't even bother to check their credit anymore, it's all bad. Anyone with any credit is buying not renting. If they have a job and they make 2/3rds more than the rent amount per month, they're in. It's amazing to me how many don't make even $1,500.00 a month working full time. At the same time, municipalities are all over me constantly for repairs even though you could eat off the floors in my units. Assessments are over the current values and based on "average values" of loosly defined boundaries determined by the assessor at random it seems. Only way to get them reduced to actual current values is to wait in line for 2 years to go before a state tribunal judge and hope for the best. It's BS. I'm so pissed off at this country right now, I'm ready to go to guns. Frankly, if my wife didn't have such a good paying job right now that she loves, we'd be leaving the country for a brighter future elsewhere. America, land of opportunity, free trade, and free markets. Right.

Carl S

Oct 14, 2009 09:49 AM
Ryan Shaughnessy
PREA Signature Realty - www.preasignaturerealty.com - Saint Louis, MO
Broker/Attorney - Your Lafayette Square Real Estate Partner

Claudette - We see a different trend.  The sale market is impacting the rental market with additional inventory, increased vacancy rates, and downward pressure on rental rates.  However, it seems to be a 1 way street.  Although rental may be more attractive from a financial perspective, there is still a deep seated desire for renters to own their home.  As a result, there always seems to be a steady stream of renters purchasing new homes - notwithstanding favorable rental terms.

Oct 14, 2009 03:05 PM
Claudette Millette
The Buyers' Counsel - Ashland, MA
Buyer, Broker - Metrowest Mass

Jirius & Carl:

It is sad to hear that you are having so much trouble with your rental properties.  You did the right thing at the time by investing in real estate for the future with all good intentions as many people did.  I hope it turns around for you soon.

 

Oct 14, 2009 03:21 PM
Claudette Millette
The Buyers' Counsel - Ashland, MA
Buyer, Broker - Metrowest Mass

Ryan:

That's good to hear.  I think for most people it is still more desirable to buy rather than to rent, as long as they can get financing. 

 

Oct 14, 2009 03:23 PM
Mark Velasco
West Shores Realty - Whittier, CA
Top Producing Broker Associate

Well Claudette. The rents and home prices will be going lower. This is not necessarily a bad thing in this economy. The Buyer credit will cost us lots of grief if we continue. I love the extra sales, however, the market needs to now correct itself.

Oct 15, 2009 06:36 PM
Claudette Millette
The Buyers' Counsel - Ashland, MA
Buyer, Broker - Metrowest Mass

Mark:

I can't say that I totally agree with you that lower home prices are a good thing since so many of us have already lost a considerable amount of value in our homes over the past few years. Perhaps you have as well.  The buyer credit is something that I think the government feels, at this point, it needs to continue for awhile since they are more concerned about the ramifications of stopping it.  You can read my post on this today, if you are interested, at:

http://activerain.com/blogsview/1287274/the-home-buyer-tax-credit-expiration-the-pressure-is-mounting-

 

Oct 15, 2009 11:12 PM
Kenneth Young
Uni International LLC - Virginia Beach, VA

I believe that the rent depends on the area.   Here in Virginia Beach, the rents are actually coming down since we do not have high unemployment.   Agree that the higher rental units are taking longer to rent, but still there is a market for them....

Oct 16, 2009 09:08 AM
Claudette Millette
The Buyers' Counsel - Ashland, MA
Buyer, Broker - Metrowest Mass

Kenneth:

It's good to hear about an area that is not suffering from high unemployment.  I hope it continues that way for you.

 

Oct 16, 2009 12:27 PM
Jeff Stinson
Kasteel Property Management - Property Manager - Springville, UT

I've been seeing the same thing here in Utah.  Rents are down $50 to $100 and vacancies are up.  It seems like a lot of people have started moving in with family.  I was hoping the lack of finacing options would cause more renters to than buyers to be on the market.

Jeff Stinson - Property Manager.

www.kasteelproperty.com

Nov 04, 2009 05:54 AM
Claudette Millette
The Buyers' Counsel - Ashland, MA
Buyer, Broker - Metrowest Mass

Jeff:

That was a question I had earlier on this post - where are these people going?  You are right.  Many of them are probably moving in with family or friends.

 

Nov 04, 2009 06:04 AM