Mid October Trends Concerning

My mid-month trend report for October, 2009 is a little alarming to theory that we have bottomed out on pricing.  Using Bareis MLS stats as my source, Oct 1-15 shows the entire sales volume of Marin County Real Estate for both Single Family Residences and Condominiums at 93 sold units.  This is on par with Sept mid-month volume of 92 and August mid-month of 91. 

The concern is what is currently showing as average price and price per square foot(value).  As you know in past posts, I use average pricing as opposed to median pricing as it is easier determined in our system and I support the use of price per square foot as a market barometer (but not used as a value indicator on a particular property).  PRICING is just that, the average money spent, but applying an additional modifier helps determine VALUE.  If I had more expertise and time, I would breakdown my modifiers into a matrix of bedroom/bath size, sf, lot sf and parking, then apply those to the pricing to determine what average values are actually doing.  But, I'm a simpleton, so I stop at just tracking price per sf.

The Average Sold Price for Marin County, Oct 1-15, is $691k, this is down 23% from the mid-September price of $898k.  The Price/Sf for mid-October is $405/sf, down 8% from mid-Sept $437/sf.  How the month ends has not been too much different than the mid-month averages in prior months, so October is on pace to have a large decline in price and value, but a volume pace of the prior few months. 

My September figures from MLS paint a different picture than what was reported in our local press.  MLS only considers properties traded on the open market. The media uses a source that includes all recordings. Though complete, these additional sales are too often skewed because they are not a reflection of free market trades.  Anyway, as my numbers showed an increase in average price and value in September, October's pace is back to July and August's numbers.

If you're still reading this blog and have any specific questions about the stats, please don't hesitate to comment of contact me.