Admin

$8K Buyer Tax Credit adds 5% to cost of a home...WSJ article today

By
Real Estate Agent with Brush Real Estate

Uncle SamIt looks like Our Favorite Uncle has done it again!

There is a great article in the Wall Street Journal today that quotes a Goldman Sachs source who states that the Federal first time buyer tax credit boosted sales by over 200,000 units...that's a whole 'lotta homes!

Unfortunately, in the process of boosting sales Washington caused shortages of affordable homes and drove prices up about 5%...that's my government at work!!!

And, the huge FED purchases of mortgages have driven the average mortgage rate down about 0.3% below where it would be expected...and that purchase program will end next spring...so expect a half-point rebound in mortgage rates...these folks are just full of good news!

 

The article also goes into the problems with Loan Modifications and the glut of foreclosed homes that are still out there in "Real Estate Limbo"...there is also a Must Read section on proposed legislation to slow or stop foreclosures.

 

While the sales increases are nice and prices have stabilized in some areas...here is San Diego County there are plenty of the ugly "Bidding Wars" we all know about and they mention in this article.  The author goes on to say the long term outlook is for an additional 5% to 10% decline in average prices through next year.

Unfortunately the article doesn't state any specific areas for the price declines...it certainly doesn't look like declines are coming in the North San Diego County area....especially in Valley Center or Escondido...we were the first area into the mess and have average declines here over 40% from the peak...great for buyers...so we are seeing home mortgage payments at less than rent...hard to believe that prices can fall much past the "less than rent" point...we will see!

So...if we can believe these WSJ folks this really is a great time to buy...again proving the old saying, "It's an ill wind indeed that doesn't blow at least a little good"

 

Posted by

Free search for homes anwyhere in San Diego County: www.bobdavisrealty.com  No Signup Required...Free Home Value Tools...

For Detailed Info on North San Diego County, Valley Center, Escondido

Call or Email Bob Davis: 760-525-0123  bob@bobdavisrealty.com

CalDRE Lic.# 01719018    

Liz Voss
The Voss Group @ Voss Realty L.L.C. - San Antonio, TX

As a REALTOR in San Antonio I have to disagree with the WSJ article and think it's all hot air

San Antonio Real Estate

Oct 24, 2009 11:50 AM
Franklin & Brentwood, TN Homes Mike Nastri
Keller Williams Realty - Franklin, TN
It matters to us as much as it matters to you.

I read the article too.  Interesting conclusion without siting any real data.  I was always taught that unless it is backed by data, it is just opinion, unless you are the boss.  I can only tell you that we haven't seen it happening here, though I have no real to support that conclusion either.

Here is some data about the percentage of first time buyers.  2008 (pre-FTB tax credit) 41% of home sales were first time buyers.  So far through 2009 (with FTB credit) 50% of home sales are first time buyers.  That is 9% bump in sales just for that segment.  It could also be affected by reduction in the market place of overall sales or people that have to sell before they re-buy.  

So I guess, that even with data supporting, different conclusions can be drawn.  I am a glass half full kind of guy and not so convinced that the tax credit was a bad thing.

Oct 24, 2009 11:57 AM
Bob Davis
Brush Real Estate - Escondido, CA

Thanks for the comments...I do think the tax credit was a good thing.....here is southern california it was ground zero at this time last year...705 of the homes on some streets were foreclosed...no one was buying at all...that all turned around this spring

Goldman Sachs is a pretty data-heavy firm....they most likely have figures to support what they say...

The other thing is that national statistics are virtually meaningless when you see that all the impact of foreclosures was centered in a very few areas....we were hit very hard...but things are lots better now...a year ago you could have your pick of homes under $175K...now we have none left under $200K and there is fierce competetion up to $350K

It is interesting to see how this all has affected different areas of the country

Oct 24, 2009 12:12 PM
Doreen Zelma
Sky Realty - Austin, TX

I can say I am actually seeing a bit of this in Austin as well.  There are some areas where the inventory is so low for first time buyer price points, that the prices are creaping up.  Ah the laws of supply and demand.

Nov 03, 2009 02:19 AM