The Realtor Association of York and Adams Counties (RAYAC) just recently released the sales statistics for September of 2009. Before I analyze anything you see here I want to make sure that the difference between Mean (Average) and Median is Understood.
Mean or what is commonly know as Average is the Sum (add up all the values) of a group of numbers, divided by the total number of values. Example (2,7,9,4,5 add them up = 27 divided by the number of numbers which is 5 = 5.4. We round down to an average of 5) I'm sure everyone knows how to average numbers, but few know what the median is.
The Median (courtesy of www.Investorwords.com) One type of average, found by arranging the values in order and then selecting the one in the middle. If the total number of values in the sample is even, then the median is the mean of the two middle numbers. The median is a useful number in cases where the distribution has very large extreme values which would otherwise skew the data. The reason we are using the median is because there are homes that sell for 10,000 and homes that sell for 1,000,000 or more which would classify as large extreme values as stated above (see median)
Because my primary market is Gettysburg I'm going to cover that area. If you have questions about other areas I can certainly answer any questions you might have. Feel free to email me at David.Monsour@gmail.com with specific questions.
Gettysburg, Pa showed an increase in both median sales price and number of homes sold, which is great news. However before you start jumping for joy and calling your Realtor to increase your price you have to realize that even though we used the median of 130 homes sold in September, statistically speaking, that sample is relatively small.
This number may be caused by a large number of homes selling in a higher price bracket thus shifting the number high enough to show an increase, but this does not necessarily mean that home values on the aggregate have increased. When we price homes we have to find other comparable homes that have sold. We cannot simply translate this to mean that all homes have increased in value 3%.
What we can take away from this is a sign of improvement in the market. We can evaluate again next month to see if this trend continues and possible formulate a better conjecture as to what the future of the Gettysburg market might look like come spring. Look on the bright side, Gettysburg is the only place in Adams county that is showing a potential increase in value. Let's the hope the trend continues and brings the rest of the county along with it. Biglerville's median price is up but the number of homes sold is down significantly.
Interest rates and the potential expansion/extension of the tax credit could really play a roll in home values. Higher interest rates decrease buying power, and the tax credit is propping values somewhat artificially. We should have a better idea of the trends in the next few months.
My contact information is below if you are considering buying or selling in my local market.
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