Here are Today's Mtg rates - and economic commentaries are below - have a Great Weekend and stay safe!
CONV 30 YR 4.875% APR 5.005%
CONV 15 YR 4.375% APR 4.501%
FHA/VA 30 YR 5.000% APR 5.131%
FHA 3/1 ARM 3.875% APR 3.998%
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| All loans subject to credit approval and property appraisal. Programs, rates, and terms subject to change without notice. For ARM loans, rate may increase after settlement. Prequalification is not a commitment to lend, a condition of loan approval, or an application for credit. Pre-approvals will result in a loan decision subject to conditions. Consult a tax advisor regarding the deductibility of interest.-- |   |
FROM "THINK BIG, WORK SMALL"
Like a Rock; 3.50% on the 10 yr note is where the rubber meets the road. It has been tested all through this week and has held; closed above it on Monday but no follow-through on Tuesday, closed at it yesterday but opened lower this morning. Mortgages are also testing key technical levels and like the 10 yr note continue to hold. The cup half full, or half empty? Hard to say but until the 10 can break first level of resistance at 3.38% (40 day MA), the market is at best neutral but still with bearish technicals.
Sept personal income and spending hit at 8:30; income unchanged and spending -0.5%; both right on forecasts. Yr/yr income +1.5%, the lowest increase on record. A little bounce in the bond and mortgage markets, however not much.
At 9:45 the Oct Chicago purchasing mgrs index, expected at 48.7 frm 46.1 in Sept, jumped to 54.2; new orders jumped to 61.4 frm 46.3 in Sept but employment declined to 38.3 frm 38.8. The initial reaction was somewhat a surprise; the stock market took a hit and the rate markets improved; normally better data would act the other way.
At 9:55 the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index, markets were looking for 70.0 frm 69.4, the index at 70.6 slightly better; the one yr outlook however declined to 81 frm 88.
Health care reform continues to move through Congress; the House has its plan, the Senate has yet to finalize whatever it decides. The overriding question we are having trouble understanding; how can we add 15 mil more to health care coverage and not have it cost taxpayers more? One more of those political magic bullets that always miss the target, as this surely will. Tax makers of medical supplies and devices, cut Medicare, subsidize small businesses so they can provide insurance to employees, start a government insurance business to "compete" with private insurers. Health care from a humanitarian perspective is an honorable and good thing; from an economic perspective it will be another program that is a sink hole of spending and increased taxes with wide spread cuts in services and medical quality. Unfortunately there is little alternative that makes sense, so we have more government managing our lives.
This administration and this Democratic controlled Congress will continue to usurp as much control as possible; health care is just one. The next move working through is taking away the Federal Reserve's independence. Treasury and Barney, as well as Christopher Dodd in the Senate are on the case. All central banks should be independent of politics, that is the way it works globally and that is the way the Federal Reserve was set up---keep politics out of managing monetary policy. "If Congress interferes with the Fed's ability to do what has to be done, it could have major negative effects on the economy through its impact on inflation," said former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley, 82. The threat to central bank autonomy "looks to be the worst that I can recall in my lifetime." U.S. stocks, bonds and the dollar would collapse if investors perceive Congress violating the independence of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, said Former Fed Governor Laurence Meyer, now vice chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers LLC.
Mortgage Rates Nearly Flat in Freddie Mac Weekly Survey
McLean, VA - Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.03 percent for the week ending October 29, 2009, up from last week when it averaged 5.00 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.46 percent.
The 15-year FRM this week averaged 4.46 percent up from last week when it averaged 4.43 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.19 percent.
The five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.42 percent this week up from last week when it averaged 4.40 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 6.36 percent.
"Interest rates for 30-year fixed mortgages have averaged just below 5 percent this year, which is the lowest 10-month average since the survey began in 1971," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "As a result, refinance activity has accounted for almost seven out of 10 mortgage applications on average this year," according to Freddie Mac's survey.
"Economic data releases this week offered mixed signals as to the current state of the housing market. For example, total existing home sales jumped 9.4 percent to an annualized rate of 5.57 million homes in September, the strongest pace since July 2007, according to the National Association of Realtors®. However, new home sales unexpectedly fell 3.6 percent to 402,000 houses, the weakest since June of this year, based on figures from the Department of Commerce. Nonetheless, stronger housing demand has lowered the inventory of unsold existing homes in September to the lowest since January of this year and for new homes the lowest since November 1982, which should help stabilize falling house prices."
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