Monday we saw the equity markets rally nicely, and in addition many investors had intra-day price improvements. Helping the interest rate markets was a record $40 billion 3-yr Treasury auction that went well. The 3-year note auction gave investors a yield of 1.435%, with a bid/cover ratio of 3.33 - much better than average. Today we have $25 billion of 10-yr Treasury notes to wade through, with no economic news, but some carry through from yesterday puts out current 10-yr at 3.45% and mortgage prices better between .125 and .250.
But... why are bonds and stocks both doing well? Didn't we just learn that the unemployment rate jumped to 10.2% and reached the highest level since 1983? The rate reflects the fact that the number of people unemployed is increasing, and unemployed people are notorious about not being able to pay their mortgage and, obviously, having their "consumer confidence" be low. And when confidence is low, those flat screen TV's don't fly off the shelves. If the economy is about to rebound, as the stock market thinks, then why is the Fed expected to keep low rates for an extended period of time? Many believe that the outlook for growth, or at least a strong recovery, is grim: there is just too much weakness underlying the economy for the Fed to move to higher rates as inflation is not a worry at the moment.
So place your money wisely, since something has to give.
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