Bond prices rose today, sending 30-year bonds up a point, after data showed signs of weakness in underlying retail sales and regional manufacturing.
U.S. retail sales rose a brisk 1.4% last month but were much less impressive once autos were stripped out, while September's data was revised to show a larger drop overall than earlier reported. Combined with a separate report showing much weaker growth than was expected in New York State manufacturing, the data supported earlier bond market gains, which came in sympathy will rallying euro zone government debt.
The Empire State manufacturing data came in weaker than expected. It will be volatile, a choppy ride as we recover. The Treasury market had seen a bid from early morning and has rallied on this news.
The retail sales data was definitely positive for October, but the revision for the prior month neutralizes the impact. I think we are moving in the right direction, but it's not a straight line higher. in the short term Rates will likely fall .125% - .25%