The NAR Predicts Sunshine and Lollipops

Linda,

Good morning. I love Real Estate [mostly the Florida's Waterfront Lifestyle I market within my unique Coastal Deep Water Community http://GulfHarbors34652.net ] but really, I have to agree with Michele # 1; Carnac's predictions might well be better for 2010.

Steven Zimmerman Realtor ABR GRI / Prudential Best Realty / GULF HARBORS FL 34652 http://retaggr.com/page/StevenZimmerman

I've got to say that I didn't feel like Yun was trying to shove sunshine up my pantleg.  I was a bit surprised at his trend numbers for positive growth, but the meat of his presentation provided some statistical review that actually has some value.  The prediction of +4% and +15% was the only thing that seemed pollyannaish, and frankly, I wasn't interested in that pontification anyhow.  

Speaking from a demographic basis, we can be quite certain that the supply/demand curve will not sustain in its' current configuration.  Builders are not building.  People are still being born.  Household creation is at a historic low, and that is creating a pent up reserve of new households which will emerge as the economy allows.

Bonnie:  While I did not attend the commercial forum, I have time and again heard Yun caution of the issues in that market, and as I understand it, NAR hasn't moved away from their concern over Commercial.  That presentation is also available here.

Is NAR pre-disposed to find the positive in real estate?  Sure.  Would you prefer that they searched out the worst aspects and drilled those into consumers heads?  Not me.  It's encouraging, though, to see the statement "Most renters are not qualified and should not be homeowners" featured prominently in the NAR analysis. 

The presentation pointed out a lot of ongoing problems in the market.  We've undergone a tremendous adjustment in our industry, one that will prove to be difficult but not insurmountable for both for consumers and the industry.  I'm highly enthused about my next 5 years in the business, and that enthusiasm is not born of belief that property values are going to do an about face and skyrocket next year.  I'll do better if we just grind this out, knowing I'm smarter and willing to work harder than the next guy.

 

It's all about jobs... Jobs, baby, jobs How can someone buy a house if they aren't working?

If economists were laid end to end across the US it would probably be a good idea.

I have to totally agree with #198. I have not been a fan of NAR since they turned on their members and started marketing our own listings back at us. Now they say they are going to make a huge profit on our DATA in a national database. Where do all these profits go? I certainly don't see my dues going down with all this profit we are making as an association?

It's all aboiut the DUE$ that are due in December.  Tehy need the cash to $pend on more boondoggles like RPR.

I’m surprised by some of the harsh comments here. As pointed out by many, predicting is not an exact science even when done by so-called experts, so why not be positive? How foolish would the man look if after spending months pushing hard for extended and expanded tax credits, he predicts a tepid year? I agree with those who say that it’s a good time to buy if you want or need to and can afford it; and it’s a good time to sell if you want or need to sell and the conditions are right for the seller. Whether or not the market is optimal shouldn’t enter into it.

WE are going to have 4% appreciation... REALLY?!? 

Central Florida has a long way to go before we see 4% appreciation.

WOW as long as unemployment keeps going up, so will foreclosures. not to mention option arms are resetting into late 2010... high foreclosures will be around for atleast another year or two is my guess... we are where we have never been before, and those are some rosy numbers up top. CA, FL, NV, AZ will have even longer!!

AND there are so many unknowns like unemployment, new house starts, inflation, new loan mods, bank activity and interference, new regulation and on and on...

That said, positivity and the strength to move through and forward is so important. You can be realistic and still be positive. Easier said than done ;)

I've bought 7 houses in 4 cities and dealt with hundreds of real estate agents because I've also been staging homes for 7 years. I have yet to meet an agent who will say "this is a bad time to buy a house".

So why would you be surprised at what the NAR says? Isn't it their job to promote optimism and convince regular people that they still have a need for real estate agents?

Besides, October sales were the highest they've been in 2.5 years!

I truly believe it is a good time to buy a house in my area.  Is it the best time?  I don't know.  I don't have a crystal ball.  However, I have been telling clients and potential clients (depending on their circumstances) that it's not a good time to sell.  I have also told potential clients in the past it wasn't a good time for them to buy.  Even in what I consider to be a great time to buy, I have often subscribed people to my email campaign about budgeting/credit/finance and told them to hang tight and get their houses (finances) in order before they buy.  I have an investor right now that has cash for an investment property and I've counseled him to pass on several homes lately so he'll get a good one, not just one to get one.  I'd much rather turn someone away who is not in a position to buy.  People will tell just a fraction of people about a good experience versus a bad experience (which could be me putting someone into a house when they aren't ready).  There are many ethical agents out there, and it's a shame we get a bad rep due to so many others... others who often leave the business within a year.

Isn't it great how everyone thinks they are an expert and the one that knows what will happen?  Nobody knows for sure what will happen and only time will tell. 

We all have decisions to make every day and the biggest one is "What are we going to focus on?". 

 People who succeed focus on what they can control!

Whitney, This is the most relevant posting on this thread!

He's definitely optimistic.  My concern is the mortgage resets as shown in the graph above.

Things are looking up, but this sounds very optimistic.

Um is Mr. Yun not realizing real estate is local?  Not a prediction that would apply to everyone and everywhere even if he was right.

Here in California we were honored with our Economist from our state board.  It was very interesting, with about the same amount of accuracy as NAR; that the power point slides above thier head as they were touting recovery painted quite a different picture.  I do hope for a better future but feel it is disrespectful of our intellect and misleading to newer agents not to be more honest about the near future.  I think many agents were using this info to decide whether they could hang in there or whether they should consider a new career.  Using false predictions to bolster membership is unconscionable in my opinion.   They should instead focus on basics, technology and "best practices" to clean up our name in the public forum.

Just thought I'd wake up this post a bit... It's always fun to see if the forecast was right or not...

Case Schiller shows the Composite 10 CSXR down -1.20% from December 2009 to December 2010.

Case Schiller shows the Composite 20 SPCS20R down -2.38% from December 2009 to December 2010.

The Case Schiller index for San Diego is up 1.71% from December 2009 to December 2010.

OK, here's the official stats from NAR itself:

http://www.realtor.org/files/research/localmarket/ca_sandiego.pdf

http://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdata

Oops. Guess home sales in San Diego actually declined. Guess appreciation in San Diego was below the 4.0% forecasted as well.