Home prices may rise 4 percent next year, Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, told real estate professionals at NAR's annual convention, held earlier this month in San Diego.
Of course, that statement was met with much applause, as 2009 has been a tough year for real estate, with home prices down in 123 out of 153 U.S. metro areas, according to NAR's own data. Some of NAR's hopeful stance stems from the fact that the home-buyer credit, which has been extended into 2010 and now includes move-up buyers, has been fueling an increase in first-time home buyers, who now make up at least half of all buyers, says CNNMoney.com.
NAR (a trade organization that represents Realtors across the U.S) often tends to have a rosier outlook on the housing market than others -- which makes sense, since it's an organization for professionals whose bread and butter is real estate. I'm not an economist myself, so all I can say is that I hope that NAR is right -- there are many strapped homeowners out there who could use a break.
But I am a little skeptical, what with the tremendous number of foreclosures and short sales that are flooding the market. There just seems to be a lot of inventory out there, inventory that's relatively cheaply priced. Cyberhomes blogger Rick Hazeltine also has his doubts whether 2010 will usher in some good real estate news.
Meanwhile, SignOnSanDiego.org notes that some economists don't agree with NAR's forecast. For instance, Patrick Nugent, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Massachusetts, thinks home prices may fall 3 percent to 5 percent in the U.S. next year, the website says.
Readers: Do you agree with the National Association of Realtors' upbeat real estate forecast for next year?-Lauren Baier Kim
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