National Association of Realtors Economist Expects "Stabilization" in 2010. What do you think?

Real Estate Agent with Exit Realty Gulf Coast




The National Association of Realtors met last weekend in San Diego, California with the big question on everyone' s mind; "When will we return to a stabilized market?"

The National Association of Realtors' chief economist, Lawrence Yun, Ph.D, predicts the market should stabilize in 2010. He believes with the extension on the tax credit it should bring in between 2.3 and 2.4 Million first home buyers. The question on my mind is what about the 10% unemployment rate? What about the foreclosures?

Yun thinks that people that have jobs will not wait to purchase a home because they want their tax credits. With the government giving an $8,000 tax credit, why wouldn't people use that towards a down payment? With an abundance of homes priced below $200,000 it is now more affordable for people to purchase their first home or a vacation home.

Foreclosures are all over the MLS. However, foreclosed homes do not sit on the market long. Yun believes that there will not be a second wave of foreclosures. I disagree with him. Working with Asset Management Companies I speak to a lot of people whose homes are being foreclosed. Some people tell me they stopped paying their mortgages over two and a half years ago. Whit that being said, I believe that we will see another wave of foreclosures, not nearly as large as the first.

Buyers are aware of properties that are being foreclosed upon from foreclosure websites before they are even listed. Investors see the value in foreclosures and want to be first in line to put an offer in as soon as they hit the market. Foreclosed properties that I have listed usually have multiple offers within the first week. Banks don't usually come down too much from the list price. We need for this fast absorption rate to continue in order for us to clear the market of the abundance of foreclosures.

Yun believes we will have 3 million foreclosures this year and 3 million next year. Hopefully we will see the fast absorption rate continue on foreclosures. This will help the market stabilize and return to a more "normal" market.

In closing, the market will start to stabilize; however, I believe that it will take at least until the end of 2010 into the beginning of 2011. After we weather the flood of foreclosures home owners should start to see their property values increase.






Toll Free: 1-800-487-2414



Comments (4)

Vickie Nagy
Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate - Palm Springs, CA
Vickie Jean the Palm Springs Condo Queen

We really can't speak to the future as all the details aren't readily available, but our current market is a very strong seller's market with low inventory and rising prices.

Nov 23, 2009 01:40 AM
Ken Tracy
Coldwell Banker Residential - Naperville, IL
Helping clients buy and sell since 2005

Hi Steve.  Very wealthy name you have...:)

Anyway, I think Lawrence Yun is the ultimate talking head.  In the four years I have been a Realtor, I am still waiting for one correct prediction for our chief economist...

Thanks for writing,


Nov 23, 2009 01:41 AM
Bob Jakowinicz
National Realty Centers Livonia--Bob Jakowinicz - Livonia, MI
Michigan Real Estate Agent-- MI Real Adventures

Steve, I think we will continue to fight our way through a series of ups and downs month to month over the next year or so.  When the jobs come back the markets will rebound, here in the Detroit metro area we are doing well but it is not coming easy for anyone.  This market in our area has been a great learning experience to say the least.

Nov 23, 2009 01:45 AM
Tracey Martin
Realty World Premier Associates - Salinas, CA

I believe that Mr.Yun is paid to put a positive spin on the housing market.  I always try to have a positive attitude, however I feel that we are in a bank manipulated buyer's market. At least that is the case in my area.  Across the street from my home there is a house that has been sitting empty for over a year.  The bank has not foreclosed on it even though the owner has called his lender several times to ask them to foreclose. My community is peppered with empty homes. These homes are not on any foreclosure list and not on the MLS. I don't think my area is that different from the rest of the country.  I had a short sale client who had a 710 credit score even though he had not made a house payment in over a year. As it turned out, the bank had not reported one late payment to the credit reporting agencies.  My last foreclosure listing sat empty for 3 years before the bank decided to list it. I am in no way a conspiracy theorist and I don't want to believe that the chief economist my dues help pay would mislead the public, however if he thinks the worst is almost over he either "has his head in the sand" or he is trying to boost the market by telling Americans what they want to hear.  Those of us "in the trenches" know that we are no where near the end.  We also know that the longer the banks hold on to their non-preforming assets, the longer it will take us to get out of this market.  Lenders either don't want our government leaders and Americans to know how bad the mess they made is. or our government knows and they don't want us to know.  I was married to a politician and I know the news we get is the news those in power want us to get and not necessarily the truth.                       

Nov 23, 2009 03:27 AM