Last week I attended the Arizona 2010 Real Estate and Business Forecast. Elliot Pollack, Valley economist who has been providing Economic Forecasts for more than 25 years, presented valuable information for homeowners, buyers, sellers, and renters. There was also a panel of real estate experts from both residential and commercial specialties who essentially confirmed what Elliot Pollack reported.
The main message from the seminar was this:
- Economic recovery will be slow... there is no silver bullet.
- Home values may not be on track until 2013.
- The barometers of real estate recovery will be:
1) population growth which will be driven by
2) job growth or vice versa.
- Energy technology (wind, solar, etc.) will be more important than ever for Arizona's economy. The semiconductor industry has gone overseas and don't expect it to be back soon. Aerospace will concentrate in areas of research centers (not Arizona).
- Economic recovery could take four years and thus the 2013 time frame for the real estate market's return to the highs of 2007.
Residential or commercial renters- now is the time to renegotiate your lease. There is a huge oversupply of rentals and landlords should be ready to take any deal they can get or they may have to see their properties empty and subject to vandalism.
- First time buying a home? Now is the time.
- Buying a home is still cheaper than renting a home, but not for long.
- Interest rates have not been this low in years.
- The First-time Homebuyer Tax Credit will be available until this spring.
- Real Estate Deals are out there but the inventory of smoking deals is beginning to dry up.
- Talk to a mortgage lender and get qualified immediately.
- Affordability indices for the valley are at record lows.
"Buyers -- you can buy more house now you could at any time in the past 11 years." Elliot Pollack, Economist.
If you are considering purchasing a new home from a home builder, please remember it costs you nothing to have a buyer's real estate agent represent you. If you decide to not have a real estate agent represent you, then you have no-one looking out for your best interests. If you want a better deal for you and your family, be sure to call a real estate agent before you go out to look at those new homes.
• If you are happy in your home and not thinking of moving and can afford your mortgage, then count your blessings and enjoy your good fortune.
• If you are looking to cash in the equity in your home, then the longer you can wait the better.
• If you are thinking of moving up and you still have some equity in your home, then it is time to sell. (As your home value increases so will the cost of your new home.) And if you have been in your home for five of the last eight years, then there may be a tax credit available to you.
• If you are downsizing, then hang in there until you are good and ready to move.
• If you are upside-down and want or need to move, then a short sale may be a solution. It is a difficult and complicated path but we have some of the top short sale experts at our office and I would be happy to set up an appointment for you with them.
• If you are upside-down and want to reduce your monthly payments, you may want to start a conversation with your lender about loan modification.
Please call me to discuss any or all of the above scenarios. I am happy to help.
Happy Thanksgiving to you and your loved ones.