Economic Conditions for the Las Vegas Valley November 2009

By
Services for Real Estate Pros with Savvy Home Pix B.1000860.LLC

Economic Conditions for the Las Vegas Valley October 2009

Las Vegas NV Real Estate

 Housing Conditions:

  • Foreclosure/Short Sale Listings (11/15/2009): Total Listings 10393; Short Sales: 4475, 43% of all listings; Bank Owned Listings: 2243, 22% of all listings. Short sale and REO listings consume 65% of total listings
  • New Home Sales (October 2009, units sold): 441 Year Change -44.7% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
  • New Home Sales (October 2009, median price): $205,000 Year Change -16.0% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
  • Existing Home Sales (October 2009, units sold): 4328 Year Change +35.5%
  • Existing Home Sales (October 2009, median price): $125,000 Year Change: -30.6%
  • New Home Permits (September 2009): 396 Year Change -14.1%
  • Rental Rate (MLS Monthly Average August 2009): $1265/month 

My analysis:  Distressed listings (foreclosures and short sales) are 65% of total listings.  Credit markets must be watched as underwriting guidelines continue to tighten.  Condos are barely financeable.  Resale sold units and pendings remain impressive.  Builders cannot compete with bank owned listing prices, thus sales remain lackluster. The rental market is softening due to all the investor/first time buyer combination of activity.  This adds more supply and creates less demand.

New Residents/Employment Conditions:

Las Vegas New Resident Count

Las Vegas Total Employment

  • New Residents (October 2009): 4705, Year Change -16.2%
  • Total Employment (October 2009): 848,300 Year Change -6.7%
  • Unemployment Rate (October  2009) 13.0%, Year Change +68.8%

My analysis: The tourism, gaming and convention numbers need to improve before these numbers improve.  New Resident Count will continue to plummet if no new jobs are created.  Economists are hoping that City Center brings tens of thousands of new jobs.  The Las Vegas Valley has lost -78600 jobs since April 2008.  I am not optimistic that City Center can pull us out of this slump.  (see Tourism/Gaming conditions below!)  City Center is expected to draw in anywhere from 10,000-15,000 new jobs.  Unfortunately around 8500 construction workers from the project will be unemployed so that really boils down to only 2500-7500 new jobs.  Unemployment rate is painful.

Tourism/Gaming Conditions:

Las Vegas Convention Attendance

  • McCarran Airport Total Passengers (September 2009): 3,336,007 Year Change -3.5%
  • Gaming Revenue (September 2009): $774,055,720, Year Change -9.3%
  • Visitor Volume (September 2009): 3,350,862, Year Change -3.7%
  • Convention Attendance (September 2009): 401,319, Year Change  12.2% 
  • Hotel/Motel Occupancy (September 2009): 83.2% Year Change -1.3%

My analysis:   Convention attendance rose in the double digits this month after a -58% year over year for month prior.  We shall see if this is a fluke or sustainable.  This sector (tourism) needs to see some serious price corrections before we see a comeback.  Corporate credit is not coming back any time soon.  It will be hard to get convention attendance back up without corporate credit.  Glad to see regular tourists are making their way here with the imbalance of the other numbers to replace the convention attendee numbers.  Gaming and convention business is big business and those numbers MUST increase for jobs to increase and for our entire economy to stabilize.  Any convention attendance decrease of over 10% is extremely painful to this economy and all the overbuilt convention space.  It will be interesting to see what hotel/motel occupancy boils down to after city center opens with almost 6,000 new rooms online.  Anyone else seeing price corrections in store for the Las Vegas Strip?

Sources: Salestraq, Home Builder's Research, Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, Nevada State Gaming Control Board, Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles, McCarran International Airport, Las Vegas Convention & Visitor's Authority, Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation.  Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.  My analysis is my humble opinion

Posted by

Thanks,  Renée Burrows 702-580-1783 Broker/Owner, REALTOR®
 

 

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Re-Blogged 2 times:

Re-Blogged By Re-Blogged At
  1. Kenny Salame 12/02/2009 01:51 AM
  2. Kimberly Dearth 12/02/2009 09:30 AM
Topic:
Real Estate Market Trends
Location:
Nevada Clark County North Las Vegas Bella Vista
Groups:
Las Vegas, NV Area Real Estate Professionals
Resort Communities
Las Vegas Investors and Downtown Real Estate
City and State
Las Vegas Foreclosures - Homes, High-Rises-Condos
Tags:
las vegas listings
las vegas homes for sale
las vegas nv real estate
las vegas economic conditions

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Rainer
232,708
Tim Ludemann
Ochopee, FL

Renee what a great job you did...clients will see a lot of value and Good luck!

Dec 02, 2009 02:11 AM #11
Ambassador
1,510,732
Renée Donohue~Home Photography
Savvy Home Pix - Allegan, MI
Western Michigan Real Estate Photographer

Jeff: I have kind of noticed that the coastal areas have a little immunity through reading market reports everywhere!

Christa:  Believe it or not, I love sleepy old Pittsburgh even though I have never been there.  There is a casino out there that is helping keep the place my husband works for afloat  during these rough times!  That area must be doing well!

Tim:  Thanks!

Kyle:  While I love unadulterated opinions (as I have my own) that one was just a little unfair, even though it is half true.  Plenty of people enjoyed watching the demise of "Sin City" ..........until they realized they owned stocks/bonds/mutual funds/401Ks etcccccc related to gaming, tourism or mortgage backed securities.  Unfortunately for your sake, LV will survive in the form of price reductions, much like the real estate market.  I would guess that 9/10 people would take a free plane ticket, hotel room, food, and entertainment money for a weekend to LV if they were offered the chance.  LV just needs to find that price point where it all balances.

Dec 02, 2009 03:43 AM #13
Rainmaker
358,069
Alan Brown
Coldwell Banker Montrose Colorado - Montrose, CO
29 Years of Real Estate Experience .

It's a long haul back up the hill for all of us, the real estate market will only turn around when the job market changes for the better. Unfortunately Las Vegas jobs are dependant on people coming to visit you, if the job market remains bad other places they will not becoming to Las Vegas on vacation. I doubt whether the new City Center attraction will change anything....

Unfortunately for Las Vegas and Phoenix you had the biggest and fastest gains in prices when the boom was going on now you are paying the price.

Dec 02, 2009 04:05 AM #14
Ambassador
1,510,732
Renée Donohue~Home Photography
Savvy Home Pix - Allegan, MI
Western Michigan Real Estate Photographer

Alan:  BINGO in your assessment!  The only thing that can change anything is some major price corrections on food, airfare and lodging.  As far as paying the price (and I appreciate how you put it so eloquently and diplomatically,)  Today I did two CMAs.  Both were original owners (rare).  One bought in '88 and the other bought in '94.  Both were in the hole 30-50K from when they bought brand new from the builder.  Falling hard is another understatement!

Dec 02, 2009 05:29 AM #15
Rainmaker
1,339,852
Michelle Gibson
Hansen Real Estate Group Inc. - Wellington, FL
REALTOR

Hi Renee - You are the market report Queen, this is awesome information and I'm so glad you got featured, Congrats!!! 

Dec 02, 2009 06:51 AM #16
Rainer
225,278
Kirsten Lindquist
Pacific Union International - Sonoma, CA
Realtor - Sonoma Wine Country

Amazing numbers....and very impressive analysis.  Thanks for the snapshot.

Dec 02, 2009 07:08 AM #17
Rainmaker
422,883
Nevin Williams
Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation - Cary, NC
Senior Mortgage Advisor

Renee -  Real estate investors pay for this type of analysis and information and here you are working hard to let people know free of charge!  Folks,  if Renee works this hard for the general public, think of hard hard she will work for you in a contract negotiation!  Nice job!

Dec 02, 2009 07:46 AM #18
Rainmaker
1,374,734
Cheryl Ritchie
RE/MAX Leading Edge www.GoldenResults.com - Huntingtown, MD
Southern Maryland 301-980-7566

Renee, I love your stats! I was in an office meeting this morning and learned abut some new stats I can use in our MLS System. I need to reserach that link you sent on how to do charts. Same instructions for the chart above as for the other charts you have posted? Love them!

Dec 02, 2009 08:02 AM #19
Rainer
104,867
Debbie Aldrich
The Watts Group Real Estate - Cottonwood Heights, UT
Salt Lake City Realtor - Salt Lake County, Cottonwood Heights

Renee, Wow employment really took a dive, looks like conentions are sneak up little by little, hopefully that will change the unemployment situation.  Tough times.  We are just starting to see positve changes in the market.  Hang in there!!  Vegas needs you!! 

Dec 02, 2009 08:58 AM #20
Ambassador
1,689,404
Joe Pryor
The Virtual Real Estate Team - Oklahoma City, OK
REALTOR® - Oklahoma Investment Properties

What a report. You are the Las Vegas real estate expert!

Dec 02, 2009 09:29 AM #21
Rainmaker
1,248,358
Wallace S. Gibson, CPM
Gibson Management Group, Ltd. - Charlottesville, VA
LandlordWhisperer

....and this week the NASCAR Championship Week in Las Vegas!!!!!  Kudos to NASCAR for removing this "crowning of this year's Champion" from NYC and holding it somewhere that appreciates the sport.....

Dec 02, 2009 12:14 PM #22
Rainer
10,334
Neil Venketramen
Chicago, IL

Nice overview of the market. If there is a hope in all of this is that the popluation continues to rise and people need to stay somewhere.

 

Lets hope the market rebounds to a sustainable level shortly and with your knowledge and information i am sure you are poised to take advantage of this when it does.

 

Thanks for the stats.

Dec 02, 2009 01:19 PM #23
Ambassador
628,138
Roland Woodworth
Q Realty - Clarksville, TN
Q Realty - Power In Real Estate

Renee - This is interesting to see the change in the your area.

Dec 02, 2009 02:00 PM #24
Rainmaker
325,871
Esko Kiuru
Bethesda, MD

Renee,

New resident count is still halfway decent. The other thing is that how many people are leaving town because of the weak job market.

Dec 02, 2009 02:09 PM #25
Rainmaker
232,101
Emily Lowe
The Lipman Group | Sotheby's International Realty - Nashville, TN
Nashville TN Realtor

Renee - Those figures are unbelievable - 65% of the listings are distressed???  Unreal.  I may be coming out to Las Vegas in February.  If so, I'd love to get together and have lunch with you!

Dec 02, 2009 02:52 PM #26
Rainer
63,430
James Lyon
Vista Pacific Realty - Sacramento, CA

Great post Renee, it certainly looks like things are looking up for your market. LV has had a rough go of late.

Dec 02, 2009 03:31 PM #27
Rainmaker
1,051,154
Fred Carver Personal Real Estate Corporation
RE/MAX Camosun Victoria BC Real Estate - Victoria, BC
Accredited Real Estate Consultant

Hi Renee...Love your Visual Stats, easy to understand as the Graph says it all..sales are ahead of Listing :O))

Merry Christmas from Fred Carver

Dec 02, 2009 04:12 PM #28
Rainer
478,183
Not a real person
San Diego, CA

That convention attendance graph certainly is interesting. I would not have thought that it had such ups and downs.

Happy December!

Dec 03, 2009 03:11 AM #29
Rainmaker
528,056
AJ Heidmann ~ CRS
McEnearney Associates, Inc. - Alexandria, VA
YOUR Alexandria & Arlington, VA Real Estate Expert

Renee - What a great gathering of killer statistics; perfectly to the point!  Though it is a little odd that convention attendance is up over 12%, but room occupancy is down 1.3%... unless people are sharing rooms at the convention to cut down on costs. 

Dec 04, 2009 03:39 AM #30
Rainmaker
359,006
Aaron Vaughn, REALTOR© 512-845-4204
eXp Realty - Canyon Lake, TX
My knowledge is your power | eXp Realty

Renee:

You are right -- my comment from Dec. 2 was over the top. And now it's gone. I think I was having a bad day or something, although I don't remember specifically what was going on that day. But I do remember a LOT of frustrating conversations with Wells Fargo around that time ... =)

Mar 17, 2010 08:47 AM #31
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