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Unemployment To Rise Into 2011?

By
Services for Real Estate Pros with TheHousingGuru.com

In a Reuters Blog it has just been reported that Goldman Sachs is projecting unemployment to continue its slow rise throughout 2010 and not peak until mid 2011. Such a view is contrary to that of many economists who have predicted a peak about a year earlier.

 

A continuation of high unemployment for such an extended period would be considered disastrous to both the economic recovery and to the political futures of many of those in Washington, and would probably guarantee a single term to the President. And while there will probably be many who will disagree, the projection is in line with a POST I did just a couple of days ago in which I outlined why “normal” levels of employment are at least a decade away.

 

Regardless of what actions the administration’s “jobs summit” takes, the country has millions of unemployed who must be absorbed back into the work force before full employment can be realized. This single issue will haunt the administration and keep us from experiencing a robust economy for many years, and its effects have yet to be fully realized.

 

It certainly looks as if the “jobless recovery” will be just that—jobless. And such a recovery is no recovery at all.

 

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Heather the Realtor Orlando, Lake Mary
LemonTree Realty - Orlando, FL
First Time Home Buyers, Bank Owned Homes

I think we have 2 more years of this and it's not going to get better anytime soon. Plus in 2012 we will have a new presidential election and hopefully a better change

Dec 02, 2009 01:18 PM
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Heather - These are certainly "times to try men's souls."

Dec 02, 2009 01:20 PM
Richard Stabile
Re/Max Real Estate Limited - Oradell, NJ
Bergen County New Homes Builder Realtor

Most projections call for unemployment to rise. I hope not too much more. The fed has to keep the money supply growing to hopefully get banks to loan to grow the economy. Banks are not giving business loans to small business. We real estate down so much the building industry is hurt so bad that jobs continue to be lost.

Richard 

Dec 02, 2009 01:26 PM
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Richard - While the projection is negative, I think it's certainly realistic.

Dec 02, 2009 01:28 PM
Goodbye Active Rain
Out of Real Estate

With continued outsourcing and the advancement of technology resulting in more automated jobs, all the current jobs lost are pretty much lost forever if we continue down this path inside this current system. 

Dec 02, 2009 03:18 PM
Terry Chenier
Homelife Glenayre Realty - Mission, BC

John,

And the same thinking persists with some people and it's why change is slow.

Dec 02, 2009 04:33 PM
Theodora Wu
TJ Investments - Burien, WA

I hope that this not true, but there is a lot to suggest that high unemployment is going away anytime soon.

Dec 02, 2009 07:09 PM
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Tony - You're right, but many are ignoring that reality.

Terry - We're in uncharted waters. Few have come to the realities of this new economy.

Theodora - Most have been expecting a quick turnaround, similar to previous recessions, but this isn't anything like previous recessions.

Dec 02, 2009 11:27 PM
Dick and Dixie Sells
Sells Real Estate, LLC - Trinity, FL
Realtors, Tampa Bay Florida Homes For Sale

It seems reality and the retoric of the press/politicians continue to not match up. What we see personally  in this profession of real estate each day totally conflicts with the TV and the newspapers. Fore warned is fore armed.

Dec 02, 2009 11:32 PM
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Dick & Dixie - Knowledge is indeed power; and it's not something we get from the daily news.

Dec 02, 2009 11:43 PM
Harry F. D'Elia III
WEDO Real Estate and Beyond, LLC - Phoenix, AZ
Investor , Mentor, GRI, Radio, CIPS, REOs, ABR

If we do not change the mentality in US, then the unemployment rate will increase.

Dec 03, 2009 12:03 AM
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Harry - Regardless of what actions we take now, high unemployment will be with us for a long time.

Dec 03, 2009 12:10 AM
Suesan Jenifer Therriault
JTHIS-Professional Home Inspection Team - Blakeslee, PA
"Inspecting every purchase as if it were my own".

These are very sad times for both the working class and for our country in general, but I can't say I'm surprised. I sat here watching what was going on in our economy and told my kids that this was not a sustainable course. Of course they thought I was just being old fashion and set n my ways. Credit was the answer to all our needs. Imagine that.

Dec 03, 2009 12:53 AM
Jon Budish
Resident Realty - Fort Collins, CO

John, there is a factor that may increase unemployment even more than expected. If the health care bill passes, hospitals are going to have to cut their costs in order to remain viable, with the lower reimbursements they'll receive from the govt.

Dec 03, 2009 01:11 AM
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Sue - We're reaching a "tipping point."

Jon - There are several potentially damaging factors that aren't being considered by most.

Dec 03, 2009 01:43 AM
Anonymous
Georgia

John, we are definitely reaching a "tipping point" in our debt and lack of jobs.  We must STOP SPENDING.  Realistically that isn't easy...even for a family.  But for the politicians it seems that it has become impossible.  Our national debt is going to sink us if we continue on this path.

"The U.S., however, has been the beneficiary of two unusual factors. First, the Social Security Trust Fund has taken in more revenue through payroll taxes leveraged on Baby Boomers than it needs. Ideally, this money should be invested to be available when the Boomers retire. In reality, this source of funds has been loaned to the government to finance increased deficit spending. This has essentially been an interest-free loan, helping to keep Treasury Bond interest rates low."

Dec 04, 2009 12:21 AM
#16
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Georgia - Yes, the handling of the SS Trust Fund is a crime upon upon the entire country.  And politicians seem to believe we can "continue on this path" indefinitely.

Dec 04, 2009 12:26 AM
Leslie Helm
Tennessee Recreational Properties - Jamestown, TN
Real Estate For Trail Riders

I'm not sure it will "peak" because that implies a leveling off or a downturn. I think that unemployment will continue to rise. Given all the factors in play, how could it not?

Dec 04, 2009 09:48 AM
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Leslie - I certainly hope it will peak sooner than predicted.

Dec 04, 2009 12:49 PM