Arizona's Economic Recovery How long will it take for Arizona's Economic Recovery? A recent article ran in the Arizona Republic states that it may take four more years to rebound from our economic woes. Lee McPheters, director of the JPMorgan Chase Outlook Center says "Arizona remains dead last among all the states for job growth and is expected next year to experience an unprecedented third straight year of job losses." Since the recession officially began in December 2007, Arizona has lost 265,000 jobs according to the U.S. Labor Department. Personal income is expected to decrease by 1.5% in 2009 for the first time ever. Phoenix is only behind Las Vegas when it comes to having the most homes underwater, which is when the owner owes more than their home is worth.
Arizona is still considered to be in a recession, although
many parts of the country believe they are well on their way to
recovery. One thing that holds Arizona down is the state
budget deficit, and the decline in sales-tax revenue and personal
income taxes. McPheters feels that the state budget defecit
will continue to be around $1.5 billion to $2 billion a year for
several more years. Another thing that may hold Arizona back
from a quicker recovery is the lack of jobs, which may deter people
from moving here. One other item that may hold Arizona's
recovery back is the high inventory of homes, office, multi-family,
industrial and retail space. Scottsdale economist, Elliott Pollack
feels the Arizona metropolitan area over-built during 2003 through
2006, and it will take years to fill these vacancies in both
residential and commercial real estate.
We will just have to wait and see. Even if it does take
longer for us to recover in Arizona, I feel it will be a positive
thing, and when things do turn around, we will see greater growth than
in many other areas of the country. Arizona's Economic Recovery may take
longer, but will be greater.
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