Nationally, it seems like we are hearing more and more positive news about the economy and trends are beginning to lead us to believe that the economy is heading in the right direction.
Finally, on the local level, there are some trends appearing that may be early signs of a stabilization in the real estate market.
The principal indicator that suggests this improvement is the number of new listings on the market.
Starting at the end of 2007, more and more new listings started to hit the market at the same time that sales started to slow, leading to a huge oversupply that peaked in March 2009 at 75 months (6 months is considered to be a stable market!).
The inventory is finally declining as the number of new listings slows. Since August of this year, the number of new listings has declined each month along with the overall inventory, dropping back to the lowest level since May of 2008.
I supect that there are several reasons for this. Firstly, at this point most of the sellers who are not really serious have seen the writing on the wall and pulled their listing. Secondly, we have been in this recession long enough that most of the people who have been forced to try and sell have already acted, while the people who are managing to ride out the recession have hung on long enough and will probably be o.k.
Still of concern is the fact that sales continue to be very slow and while the decline in inventory is helping to swing the market back to something of an eqilibrium, sales will still need to pick up significantly to find a truly balanced market.
As I work with buyers, I have noticed that the selection of properties is not as exciting as it was a few months back, There are certainly a good number of foreclosed properties that are still working their way through the system and will be hitting the market in the next few months.
For sellers, it is still a difficult time because of the lack of sales and a serious seller simply has to outshine the competition on price.
Who knows what the future holds, but the trends are at least suggesting a move back towards a balanced market.
(The data referenced in this article is taken from the Aspen / Glenwood Springs MLS which includes properties from Aspen all the way to Western Garfield County.
For more information on real estate in Aspen and the Roaring Fork Valley, please visit: www.TopAspenRealtors.com
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