It's that time of the month - the HAGERSTOWN (21740) Real Estate Numbers are OUT - and they're UP!!
That's right folks, the 10th is here, and that means the local real estate numbers are here, and the numbers are UP!!
(If you'd just like to look at the Hagerstown Homes Sales Numbers yourself, and not have to listen to me blather on for 1,000 words just to get to them, you can go directly to where I've posted them here:
- Hagerstown, 21740 - November 2009 Real Estate Sales Data
- Hagerstown, 21742 - November 2009 Real Estate Sales Data
But before we get too Holly-Jolly about the stats, let me acknowledge right off the bat, real estate sales continue to be driven by the Federal Home Buyer Tax Credit - - -
- - - and that dynamic particularly intensified in November, because up until November 6, the official cut-off date for the tax credit was scheduled to be November 30 - settlement by November 30.
So even though we informed professionals were hearing from our Washington peeps that Congressional extension of the tax credit was very likely, it was our duty to report to our clients that Washington is Washington, and just because you think you have the votes don't mean you're gawna win the election (see United State Supreme Court, Bush v. Gore, 531 U.S. 98 (2000)).
And therefor we had to dutifully say, or at least I felt I did:
well, I'd bet my next five-figure commission (this year) that Congress and the President will extend the tax credit, but, that's not guaranteed, so, if you consider the $8,000 tax credit an important piece of your Hagerstown or Frederick or Baltimore or Columbia or Finksburg or Funkstown home-buying strategy, then, we have to assume that the extension will not get passed.
It's pretty easy to bet your 2009 five-figure commissions away...I don't have to finish the joke, right? - you get it...
Anyway - always with the digressions - in order to qualify for the tax credit before the extension, a Hagerstown home buyer had to get to settlement by November 30th, which meant contracts would have to be written by the first week of November at the very latest.
While all this was going on, I noticed an intersting dynamic. For just those last 2 weeks of October and the first week of November, we actually had a seller's market (to some extent, everything is relative, right?), for about a minute, there. Yup, a Hagerstown sellers' market - remember those?
What had happened, I believe, was this:
Throughout the spring and summer, Hagerstown home buyers had been doing just like they've been doing for the last - what has it been two, two-and-a-half years now? - sitting on the fence, shopping, shopping, shopping, and then doing some more shopping, and then throwing out lowball offers, and when exasperated sellers who were already losing their shirts dared to counter-offer, buyers were saying "nahh, we're good" and then going back out and shopping and shopping and shopping and waiting and cruising the internet and sitting down and having a latte and enjoying the lovely view of cascading prices, and then just for good measure, then -
- - -they went out and shopped a little more...
...and then a little voice in their heads - or the somewhat louder voice of Maryland Realtors like me - started saying in August, and September, "y'know, you really oughta keep your eye on that November 30th tax credit deadline..."
And somewhere around October 15th, buyers said:
"Doh!"
and
"Oh %$#^&, WE BETTER KEEP OUR EYE ON THAT NOVEMBER 30th DEADLINE!!"
And the (mini) rush was on! 
So, here in Hagerstown, properties priced under $140K or so were getting snatched up in no time, and sellers recognized that - just for today - they didn't have to make any concessions; institutional sellers, i.e. banks holding foreclosures, particularly knew that - just for today - they had the stronger hand.
It almost felt like the old days, way back in 2005, when buyers were in a frenzy...
Kinda, sorta - it all happened so quickly, I don't really think any buyer or seller really had enough time to fully grasp what that market dynamic was at the time.
Anyway, have I digressed?
No, not really - we're talking about the numbers this month, and at first blush, they are kind of startling, amazingly positive, almost.
But given what I just got done tellin' ya' happened -
They are not all that surprising.
Here, Hagerstown, is what we've got (for zipcode 21740):
- Sales volume in November: $8,733,486, up from $4,208,780 in November 2009, that's an increase of 107.51%!
Wow. Even given the governmentally driven skewing, well, that is just a bit, um, incredible. Course the less than 5% interest rates certainly helped (I know, I know, also governmentally driven - Bernanke printing away there like there's, uh, no tomorrow.)
Okay, let's get on with it:
and that's the first time I've seen that number go to the plus side since, since, since - - -
well, since last January, when there was a temporary single digit reprieve in the double-digit slide - which I am sure you skeptics will argue November will turn out to be, a reprieve...
In any case, the last piece of evidence that the spike was driven by the tax credit:
- 25 of the 55 Hagerstown - 21740 sales were under $150K, and 42 of the 55 were under $200K
('course, 312 of 447 current active listings in Hagerstown 21740 are under $200K - there's just not that much listing for $200K+ anymore!)
The numbers for the 21742 section of Hagerstown don't show quite the same upturn:
- Total volume $6,975,799, up from $3,769,800, increase of 85.04%
- Average sale price $199,309 down from $209,433, decrease of 4.83%
- Total units sold 35, up from 18, increase of 94.44%
Again for a full look at ALL the Hagerstown Home Sales numbers (and there are many more to discuss, like number of active listings and days on market figures), go check them out yourself:
- Hagerstown, 21740 - November 2009 Real Estate Sales Data
- Hagerstown, 21742 - November 2009 Real Estate Sales Data
So, numbers are groovy, but what do they tell us?
I think we'll save a whole 'nother blog for the subject of optism, or, where the hell are we in this whole dang miserable recession-slash-bust thing?,
but for now, I think we can extract one very valuable lesson from the numbers.
BUYERS - THE NEXT EXPIRATION DATE IS SETTLEMENT BY JUNE 30th on CONTRACTS RATIFIED BY APRIL 30th.
DON'T WAIT UNTIL TAX DAY TO START SHOPPING, OR YOU'LL FIND YOURSELF FACING SHORT SUPPLY AND UNCOMPROMISING SELLERS!!
INSTEAD OF GOING TO THE MALL ON DECEMBER 26th - GO BUY A HOUSE!
Submitted with Holiday Cheer,
~d
For great anlayses of the extended and revised Federal Home Buyer Tax Credit - check out these summaries provided by the National Association of Realtors:
David Lidz, Realtor®
Advantage Realty, LLC
19918 Jefferson Blvd.
Hagerstown, MD 21742
(410) 903 - 9489 - cell
(301) 745 - 1620 - office
(301) 766 - 4520 - fax
dlidz@advantagerealtymd.com
www.HomeAgainMaryland.com
www.CharmCityRents.com
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