When is the market going to turn around?

By
Real Estate Agent with Watts Team Real Estate

Ever gotten this question? 

I went to High School in the early 90's in Orange County California.  Aliso Viejo Homes didn't exist.  It's hard to find Realtors and Engineers my age in Orange County California, and I believe it is because of the 90's recession.  All my friend's parents who were realtors or engineers were out of work.   The aerospace industry had left and those high paying jobs with it, mortgage payments were sacrificed, homes were foreclosed, and prices fell.  All the high income engineers lost their jobs and soon after every realtor struggled to find buyers.  I was only in high school but it made a big impact on me and it must have impacted my generation.  Try to find an engineer or realtor today in Orange County between 34-37 years old.  Many parents I trusted and respected cursed their real estate speculation and warned against following their path.   It seemed like the market waited until everyone lost hope before it turned around.

 

Towards the end of our great real estate boom in 2006 I listened while "expert" after "expert" promised that our economy is different this time, much too diverse for a large real estate collapse, "We'll never see an REO market like the early 90s".  We learned our lesson and this time we'll see a "Soft Landing".  Isn't it interesting how history repeats itself?

 I'm about a decade into my real estate career.   www.wattsteamhomes.com has only been around for a few years.   I wasn't selling houses in the 70's when interest rates were 19% and seller financing was the only way to get a transaction done, or when Clinton cut the defense initiative.    I have, however taken a look at California real estate trends over the past 80 years, good times and horrible.  Our market has never been down more than six consecutive years.  After 3 years I have to ask......is this time different?   Will this be a seven year run?  Will this be a 20 year run?  I get asked daily, "When will things turn around?"  

I won't speculate about all the economic factors which will or will not lead to a change.  I'm not an economist (most of them have been dead wrong anyway), I will however say that our upturn is likely to occur when the masses have lost hope in the market and that is still a few years away.   

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Rainer
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Craig Richardson
National Realty - McLean, VA

Keith, great question!  Sounds like you probably know more then the "experts."

Dec 16, 2009 01:42 AM #1
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Rainer
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Keith Watts

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