Mortgage Rates for the Christmas week: The Economic Calendar and what will may move rates this week.

Mortgage and Lending with HomeBridge Financial Services (NJ) NMLS 248937


 As predicted, last week was a choppy week with the market giving us some exciting ups and downs only to end up unchanged for the week (at least Fannies were unchanged). So after much nail biting we had rates pretty much unchanged for the week.  This week should be an interesting one with Christmas tossed into the mix.  Traditionally the last week of the year is pretty lightly traded and with volume down we are apt to see big swings.

This week does have more than Christmas on the Calendar:

  • Monday, December 21: No news day today, but so far it looks like Stocks are having a bit of a Santa Claus Rally and that is not good news for rates. Look for a bump up in rates today.
  • Tuesday, December 22: Final Estimate of third Quarter GDP expected +2.8%. The beginning of the year had business bleeding off inventory, and in the third quarter we saw some of that inventory come back which is good news for manufacturing sectors. It will need to be a much weaker number of 2.5 or less to improve rates.
  • Tuesday: Existing home sales came in up 7.4% which is much better than expected. (sorry I forgot to put this on the calendar yesterday.) Good news is bad news for rates.
  • Wednesday December 23: (is it time to stop working yet?)
  • Wednesday: November Personal Income, spending and consumption expected +0.5%, +0.7% and +0.1%. The most important piece of this report is the PCE index (consumption). This weak estimate is enough to off set the stronger pieces of this report. As forecast This report should be supportive of steady rates.
  • Wednesday: November New Home Sales expected up 2.1%. Not likely to be a market mover.
  • Thursday December 24: Initial jobless claims: expected -10,000. The volatility this time of year with seasonal factors makes this report pretty worthless for predicting any actual employment report in the future.
  • Thursday: November Durable Goods expected +0.5%. There is speculation that factory output might be stronger than reports have shown, so if this number comes in strong it will be a bad news event for mortgage rates ESPECIALLY on a lightly traded Christmas Eve
  • Thursday: Market closes at 2pm for the Christmas Holiday.

There are two big issues to chew through this holiday week, First off is the Holiday.  Something about this time of year that keeps people from working, Thus VERRRRY light trading in the markets is typically the norm. Light trading typically leads to a volatile market with big swings.  From a numbers standpoint, The biggie of the week is the PCE index on Wednesday, this is the number that shows what the consumer is actually doing with their money and it is a favorite of the Fed's. Ahead of any other news, it is likely we may see a bit more profit taking this week as we did see on Friday last week and again on Monday this week.

I just want to wish you all a VERY Merry Christmas, Maybe not politically correct but heck, it is Christmas week after all!



Robert Rauf

Mortgage Banker   or my blog:

(732)223-1630 x102

Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership!

Real Estate Mortgage Network





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Comments (6)

Donne Knudsen
Los Angeles & Ventura Counties in CA - Simi Valley, CA
CalState Realty Services

Rob - Fortunately, I got two loans locked in last week at just the right time and my clients were very happy.  This week, I've got two others wondering if they should lock or wait until next when they are expected to get their final approvals before locking in.  Think I'm going to advise to float this week.  Hopefully next week will be better.

Dec 21, 2009 04:59 PM
Laura Giannotta
Keller Williams Realty - Atlantic Shore - Little Egg Harbor, NJ
Your Realtor Down the Shore!

Hi Rob, as always great info.  And back at ya...Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year!

Dec 21, 2009 08:29 PM
Robert Rauf
HomeBridge Financial Services (NJ) - Toms River, NJ

Donne, Just be careful ... I wouldnt float a client right now with out explaining how volitile things can be in the lite trading during the holidays. This week looks a little scary for rates so far.

Dec 22, 2009 01:16 AM
Robert Rauf
HomeBridge Financial Services (NJ) - Toms River, NJ

Merry Christ mas Laura G!

Dec 22, 2009 01:16 AM
Donne Knudsen
Los Angeles & Ventura Counties in CA - Simi Valley, CA
CalState Realty Services

Rob - Exactly why I'm not advising them.  Based on current turn times, they have the time to wait.  I have explained to them the pros and cons and they have agreed that they would like to wait too.  Both just went into u/w yesterday and we're not expecting final approval until next week.  So, we're waiting and I'm watching and when the time is right I can act quickly.

Dec 22, 2009 02:25 AM ~ Dallas Real Estate Agent Top Team
Dallas Houses for Rent Dallas Apartment Rentals - Dallas, TX

Rob,  I do hope you had a fabulous Holiday, look forward 2010!... I am excited to Kick off 2010... catch up with you later !

Jan 04, 2010 01:45 AM