Rather than mess around with predictions for next year, I thought I'g really go out on a limb and make some predictions for the next decade. After all, they're just as likely to come true and with all this nostalgia stuff on the Web and on TV about our first decade in the 21st Century, I thought, "Why not?"
- Lending gets tighter. FHA will be "a deal" with a 5% down payment. Most lenders won't touch you for less than 20% and a 640 credit score, minimum. There will be lots of "skin in the game".
- Housing prices continue to drop through 2012, maybe 2013, and then flatten out. Why? Two reasons: see #1 and foreclosures and short sales will continue downward pressure on prices.
- Inventory will drop dramatically because of #1 and #2. Buyers won't be able to get a mortgage and Sellers won't have enough equity to sell. Investors will buy up REOs and turn them into rentals. Flipping will be for idiots and scammers.
- NAR membership drops to about 600,000 members since they will have forgotten what the heck they were supposed to be doing. Politicians will see what's going on and refuse lunch invitations from NAR leadership or staff.
- Real Estate teams will be far and few between. Some of the mega super stars will have smallish teams but Realtors who used to have teams or thought they could support them until the "market turned" are going to be back on their own.
- Prediction #5 will lead to Realtors being nice to one another again because they'll know they may need each other to go on vacation of take over when they get sick or have a baby or whatever. Office Managers will actually have to step in and help with their agents in times of need.
- RESPA rules will cause massive consolidation in the mortgage and settlement services industry. This will lead to pricing standardization - not to be confused with "price fixing". Price fixing is illegal, remember? Standardization will be fine.
- HUD will realize that massive mortgage and settlement services consolidation has, de facto, eliminated consumer choice. However, it won't be able to do anything because all these companies will be "too big to fail".
- Full service Realtor and Brokerages will come back into vogue as 20 and 30 something digital natives realize that buying a house online for a $24.95 flat fee isn't all it's cracked up to be.
- 2019 will be "the time to buy" or "the time to sell"...just like every year.
OK. That's it for me. What do you think might happen within the next decade?
Comments(7)