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Forget Predictions for 2010 - What's it going to look like in 2019?

By
Real Estate Agent with RE/MAX United Real Estate

 

Rather than mess around with predictions for next year, I thought I'g really go out on a limb and make some predictions for the next decade.  After all, they're just as likely to come true and with all this nostalgia stuff on the Web and on TV about our first decade in the 21st Century, I thought, "Why not?"

  1. Lending gets tighter. FHA will be "a deal" with a 5% down payment. Most lenders won't touch you for less than 20% and a 640 credit score, minimum.  There will be lots of "skin in the game".
  2. Housing prices continue to drop through 2012, maybe 2013, and then flatten out.  Why? Two reasons: see #1 and foreclosures and short sales will continue downward pressure on prices.
  3. Inventory will drop dramatically because of #1 and #2. Buyers won't be able to get a mortgage and Sellers won't have enough equity to sell. Investors will  buy up REOs and turn them into rentals. Flipping will be for idiots and scammers.
  4. NAR membership drops to about 600,000 members since they will have forgotten what the heck they were supposed to be doing. Politicians will see what's going on and refuse lunch invitations from NAR leadership or staff.
  5. Real Estate teams will be far and few between.  Some of the mega super stars will have smallish teams but Realtors who used to have teams or thought they could support them until the "market turned" are going to be back on their own.
  6. Prediction #5 will lead to Realtors being nice to one another again because they'll know they may need each other to go on vacation of take over when they get sick or have a baby or whatever.  Office Managers will actually have to step in and help with their agents in times of need.
  7. RESPA rules will cause massive consolidation in the mortgage and settlement services industry.  This will lead to pricing standardization - not to be confused with "price fixing". Price fixing is illegal, remember?  Standardization will be fine.
  8. HUD will realize that massive mortgage and settlement services consolidation has, de facto, eliminated consumer choice.  However, it won't be able to do anything because all these companies will be "too big to fail".
  9. Full service Realtor and Brokerages will come back into vogue as 20 and 30 something digital natives realize that buying a house online for a $24.95 flat fee isn't all it's cracked up to be.
  10. 2019 will be "the time to buy" or "the time to sell"...just like every year.

 

OK.  That's it for me.  What do you think might happen within the next decade?

Andrew Mooers | 207.532.6573
MOOERS REALTY - Houlton, ME
Northern Maine Real Estate-Aroostook County Broker

Remember when it was Y2K Y2K this and that? Got that behind us but not many folks talking Y3K Y3K..(smile) Have a Happy New Year and see you on the other side Ken!

Dec 31, 2009 04:01 AM
William "Bill" and Karen Farragher
EXIT Blue Water Realty, Matawan, NJ 07747 - Matawan, NJ
SFR

Predictions are useless, we can only be in charge of our own actions. Throughout history there have been those that rose up and moved on. We have to adapt to the market. Period.

It was fun none the less reading, I know it was in good humor as well so don't take my comment too seriously either. LOL

Happy New Year!

 

PS I like Andrew's comment about Y2K, the world was coming to a screeching halt. yadayada

Dec 31, 2009 04:08 AM
Rich Mielke
REMAX Results, Frederick MD - Frederick, MD
REALTOR, Frederick Maryland Real Estate

Buyers will shun kitchens with granite and stainless appliances. "it looks like something my grandmother had back in the 90's!"

Happy New Year, Ken!

Dec 31, 2009 11:36 AM
Ken Montville
RE/MAX United Real Estate - College Park, MD
The MD Suburbs of DC

Rich - I couldn't have said it better myself. "Retro"  will be in.  Happy New Year to you as well!!

Jan 01, 2010 08:12 AM
Patricia Kennedy
RLAH@properties - Washington, DC
Home in the Capital

Ken, I like your predictions!  They seem to be pretty much in line with what I expect really will happen.  And Happy New Years!

Jan 01, 2010 10:05 AM
Colleen Fischesser Northwest Property Shop
NextHome Experience - Chelan, WA
A Tradition of Trust in the Pacific NW since 1990!

Love the list Ken, very thought provoking and if I'm not mistaken, a little tongue in cheek? #10 is my favorite. You've definitely nailed that one!

Jan 05, 2010 01:43 PM
Betsy Schuman Dodek
Washington Fine Properties - Washington DC Area Real Estate - Potomac, MD
SearchPotomacHomes.com

Ken, I sure hope prices rebound sooner than your predictions but we shall see. Have a great New Year!

 

Betsy

Jan 07, 2010 09:59 PM