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Mortgage Interest Rates for Fixed Rate Mortgages* | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rates as of Friday January b8, 2010 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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*Rates are subject to change due to market fluctuations and borrower's eligibility. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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2010 Forecast:
From Dick Lepre, San Francisco
2010 Year in Preview
- The mortgage industry has to deal with a new Good Faith Estimate and RESPA regulation as of January 1, 2010. This will drive lenders crazy for a few months but eventually be good for borrowers as it locks lenders into the closing costs provided.
- the mortgage industry is facing the potential of dire new rules limiting how loan officers are compensated. The motivation here is to somehow serve borrowers by making loan officers compensation independent of the terms of the loan. How this would affect no point or "no cost" loans is unclear. I was asked by folks at the Federal Reserve to voice my opinions on the suggested changes and did so in September.
- there is legislation in Congress to reorganize the regulation of the banking industry. This is a complex issue but I continue to be troubled by the fact that the same people in Congress who demanded more subprime and prevented more control of FHLMC & FNMA are the folks behind the legislation. This is the ongoing problem I have. In 1993 Congress mandated that the GSEs do subprime. In 1998 HUD demanded expanded subprime lending for the GSEs. When the GSEs could not generate enough bad loans so HUD insisted that they buy pools of subprime and Wall Street and the mortgage industry accommodated them. What resulted was disaster. I always contrast this to bad lending on Option ARMs and commercial real estate which are entirely the fault of the banking sector.
- Money supply and the Fed. This is a big one. The Fed has created an enormous amount of money to buy Treasuries, mortgage paper and other assets. The fact that we did not have a cataclysmic recession was largely the result of Fed interventions. The Fed must consider in 2010 starting to sell Treasuries and mortgages to reduce money supply to prevent inflation. The Fed must be given latitude here. We will have another $1 trillion deficit which will mean more Treasuries. I believe that the Fed has discretion here. No matter how I slice this, it is difficult to not see a runup in mortgage rates of between 0.5% and 1% at the end of the 1stQ 2010. That is when the Fed is supposed to stop buying mortgage debt.
Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates Start the New Year Slightly Lower Than They Ended the Old Year
For Immediate Release January 7, 2010 Contact: corprel@freddiemac.com or (703) 903-3933
McLean, VA - Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) in which the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.09 for the week ending January 7, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 5.14 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.01 percent.
The 15-year FRM this week averaged 4.50 percent down from last week when it averaged 4.54 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.62 percent.
The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.44 percent this week unchanged from last week when it averaged 4.44 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 5.49 percent.
"Mortgage rates eased slightly this week after rising consecutively through December," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. "Current interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages are just about at their annual average for 2009, while ARM rates are considerably below their averages for last year.
"As the economy strengthens further and the Federal Reserve (Fed) decides to raise its overnight target rate, ARM rates will follow suit because they are typically tied to shorter-term interest rates. However, the federal funds futures market does not anticipate any Fed action until the second half of 2010."
From "Think Big, Work Small"
Dec non-farm jobs saw a decline of 85K as most economists were expecting an unchanged number; the range of forecasts was -80K to +100K. The unemployment rate was unchanged in Dec at 10.0%. Nov NFP was revised to +4K frm the original release of -11K, Oct NFP was revised from -111K to -127K. Dec average hourly earnings were up 0.2% which is the increase we see every month. No job creation but markets still believe the economy will continue to improve as businesses do better by cutting jobs and spending. Kind of ridiculous that markets are so willing to dismiss the fact that jobs don't matter. Where in the world does that idea permeate from? From The Street and from those making a living touting buying of stocks. Since the beginning of the recession a total 7.2 mil jobs have been lost; in the past year (2008) 4.2 mil jobs were lost and for the past six months 6.1 mil have lost jobs. 661K people have dropped out of the work force; no matter the spinmiesters making this pigs ear into a silk purse, the lack of jobs and the continuing decline in jobs is not encouraging. The 7.2 million drop in payrolls over the past two years has been the biggest as a percentage of all jobs since World War II was ending in 1944-45.
Gag me on the political spin being attributed to this employment report. I am increasingly disgusted listening to politicians making the case that since the economy lost 600K in Dec 2008 and now only 85K lost, that that is a positive; better than in the past but would be employers are not hiring---period. Ask those that have lost jobs and can't find work if that is a plus. Yes, we can't keep losing 600K a month or we will all be on food stamps, but to paint the Dec report as a move toward the view that the economy is rebounding is, as is said, one can make anything out of data look like they want it too----economists and analysts do it daily. Christina Romer, White House economic person----smiling all the way; saying the job losses disappointing but still on the road. The Obama Administration is losing the battle, pumping almost a trillion dollars to save banks, spending a lot of taxpayers money to revive jobs that so far has been wasted. Another stimulus plan? WTF! Interest rates will explode if Obama continues to rack up increasing budget deficits.
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