This has certainly been an interesting year in real estate. And we are still staring at the tea leaves trying to see the direction of the market and figure out what the future holds.
The biggest thing in housing in the last few months has been the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. It has had a GIANT pull on the market, and when it "expired" (it was renewed and expanded before it actually expired, but the effect seemed to expire) it altered the direction of the market... as it did when it was enacted.
Let's get a few numbers for Lilburn out of the way...
- There were 384 listings as of 12/31/2009
- In November, there were 36 sales
- The Absorption Rates for Lilburn break down as follows:
- 12 month average - 10.04 months of inventory
- 6 month average - 8.35 months of inventory
- 3 month average - 9.76 months of inventory
The link above explains Absorption Rates more fully, but basically, it tells us how long it would take to sell all of the property on the market at the current rate.
Sales for Lilburn in November were up 38.5% compared to November 2008. This was after October was up 15% year over year. Days on Market had also dropped by 7 days to 96 days.
The market is divided up into six segments, but two of them didn't have any activity in the last 12 months.
There were 227 listings and 24 sales in November. Looking back the 12mo/6mo/3mo Absorption Rates were 8.7/7.4/9.1 months. I expected the 3mo rate to be a little better because of the accelerating sales, but that wasn't the case. The Under $200k segment is the strongest, though.
$200k - $400k...
There were 133 listings and 9 sales in November. The 12mo/6mo/3mo Absorption Rates were 12.7/9.9/10.5 months. I also expected the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit to have a little more impact on the 3mo rate, but sales began to slow anyway. The $200k - $400k segment looked like it was staging a rebound. Hopefully it will pick up again after the Holidays.
$400k - $600k...
There were 15 listings and 2 sales in November. The 12mo/6mo/3mo Absorption Rates were 10/9/11.3 months. This segment wasn't as affected by the tax credit as lower priced homes. The change in absorption rates looks like it might be a little more seasonal... As a sneak peak, the December numbers look a lot better so far (I won't have final numbers for a couple of weeks).
$600k - $800k, $800k - $1m and Over $1m...
There were a total of 9 listings and 2 sales in the last 12 months. The absorption Rates can be calculated, but they really aren't meaningful. One extra sale or one missed sale make a HUGE swing in the data. Also, these homes are not likely to be affected by the old tax credit or the newer expanded tax credit.
Click here to search Lilburn properties.