Lancaster County Real Estate Market Report January 13, 2010

By
Real Estate Agent with Prudential Homesale Services Group

Happy New Year!  I hope you had a wonderful holiday season and are looking forward to this year.  The week before Christmas turned out to be very busy for me, and we enjoyed helping three households select homes and enter agreements to buy them, which helped two households and a builder be able to move forward with their plans.

Here are the numbers from my January 7, 2010 searches in the Lancaster County MLS:

                 Active Listings   UA Listings   Ratio     Prior year Ratio

Jan 7, 2010      2,772               413      14.89%       16.05%

Dec 7, 2009      2,873               439      15.28%       18.19%

Nov 4, 2009      2,907               641      22.05%       20.43%

Oct 6, 2009       2,882               759      26.34%       22.65%

Sep 8, 2009      2,884               773      26.80%       24.12%

Jul 7, 2009        2,761               796      28.83%       29.17%

May 7, 2009      2,845             801         28.15%       34.95%

Mar 7, 2009       2,812             545         19.38%       31.00%

Jan 3, 2009       2,660             427         16.05%       21.29%

 Here is a list of the number of Active Listings, Under Agreement listings, the ratio of the two, and the date I reviewed the MLS information.  This covers the years from 2001 through 2010.  The Approximate # of Months Supply figure simply takes the number of active listings and divides it by the number under agreement.  A more precise calculation would use the actual number of homes that went under agreement in a given period of time, but this method gives a similar picture of the market.

 

      Date           # Active       # UA               Ratio      Approx. # Months Supply

01/11/2001

2333

539

23.10%

4.3

01/07/2002

1964

676

34.42%

2.9

01/04/2003

2235

1087

48.64%

2.1

01/07/2004

1485

1144

77.04%

1.3

01/19/2005

1430

1219

85.24%

1.2

01/09/2006

1489

706

47.41%

2.1

01/08/2007

2041

678

33.22%

3.0

01/05/2008

2273

484

21.29%

4.7

01/03/2009

2660

427

16.05%

6.2

01/07/2010

2772

413

14.90%

6.7

 

Over the years you can see the market strengthening from 2001 until 2005, and then begin to weaken substantially.  A year ago I predicted that we hit bottom in terms of activity, and realize now that wasn't correct.  (A hazard of making such predictions)  This year again I see positive things in the market and expect improvement over 2009 in measurements such as number of homes sold and a shortening of time on the market.  The Lancaster County Association of Realtors publication, House Calls, reports in the December 2009 issue that the National Association of Realtors® forecasts 2010 home sales are expected to be 15 percent over 2009.  Time will tell if this is correct or not, but overall I see it as a good time to purchase a home.

House Calls also reports in the January 2010 issue that home sales for the month of November 2009 were 49.8 percent higher than November 2008.  This is the fourth consecutive month that we saw more homes sold than the same period in the prior year.  House Calls also reports that 39.2 percent of homes sold in a month or less, compared to 24.7 percent in November 2008, indicating that the aamount of time homes are on the market is shortening. 

Once again, this time of year tends to have fewer active buyers and sellers, but those who are active are generally feeling a strong need to move for some reason or another.  There is talk of interest rates heading up in the Spring due to the Federal Reserve changing strategy and focus, in an attempt to avoid inflation.  Astute buyers are trying to lock in ahead of that.

If you haven't heard about the $8,000 tax credit, please contact me and I'll be happy to forward information about it to you.

On January 7 we resumed operations at the Prudential Homesale Services Group Kiosk at Park City in the Boscov mall.  In the three shifts I've been there since then the flow of people stopping to talk has been good.  There are people wanting to move.

If you know someone who is thinking of buying or selling, please recommend they call me.  I'll also be happy to contact them if that is appropriate.

Thank You!

Prepared by:   J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor®

Prudential Homesale Services Group

150 North Point Boulevard, Lancaster, PA 17601

717-560-9100     www.msollenberger.com        msollenberger@topproducer.com

Licensed in PA

Feel free to visit me on Facebook.com, LinkedIn.com, or Twitter.com.

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Rainmaker
178,678
Bob & Bonnie Horning
Mount Joy, PA

Hey Merle, Happy New Year to you too. I think it's best if we all just try to adjust to the new economic situation and prepare for a few years at best of these conditions. Money is only going to get tighter for the next few years,  in my opinion. We will make it, lean and clean. Hang Tough.

Jan 14, 2010 05:44 AM #1
Rainmaker
1,939,763
Michael J. Perry
KW Elite - Lancaster, PA
Lancaster, PA Relo Specialist

Wow, great stats !!!!!!!!!!  Wasn't 2003-2005 amazing ?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Feb 04, 2010 05:46 AM #2
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Rainer
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Merle J. Sollenberger

GRI, CRS
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