5 Predictions for the Future of the 2010 Housing Market: 5 Suits Speak 5 Different Perspectives

5 Predictions for the Future of the 2010 Housing Market

5 Suits Speak 5 Different Perspectives

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When I went with Chris to NYC, the Big Apple, to attend Real Estate Connect sponsored by Inman News, it came as no surprise to me that that the leaders in the housing industry were all men and of course they were all wearing suits. Nice ones ! Very handsome.  But what did take me by surprise was what these 5 men predicted for the future of the 2010 housing market.  Below is a shot of the stage and our 5 featured speakers with Brad Inman leading the pack to the far right.

There they were. 5 glorious men in their corporate uniform, steeped in the minutia of their profession, being challenged to make 5 Predictions for the future of the 2010 Housing Market. The panel included Carter Murdoch (Bank of America), Sean O'Toole (CEO Foreclosureradar.com), Greg Rand (CEO Better Homes and Garden Real Estate), Nishu Sood (Research Analyst Deutsche Bank Securities) and Patrick Stone (Chairman of The Stone Group).

Their answers ranged from pessimism to conservative optimism. No one on this panel was doing cartwheels and spinning rainbows. I never saw one of them pull a crystal ball from their breast pocket though that would have been pretty funny. These 5 men spoke the truth as they saw it. In fact, their answers, though not earth shattering, will provide a simple and agreeable message for everyone including Buyers, Sellers, Investors and those who are "on the fence" or just plain old curious.

The Question: What is your Prediction for the Future of the 2010 Housing Market ?

The Predictions (prefaced and slightly dramatized by me)

Suit #1 The Alarmist- There is still too much risk in the housing market. The $8,000 tax credit is just not enough to solve our long term problems. We are in for an uphill climb once the tax credit is gone. Run for the hills!

Suit #2 The Realist- There is a "New Normal" in the mortgage industry. Suck it up, brush it off, and get used to it. Your going to need more money to buy a home. So stop spending like it is 1999, "plan accordingly", save your dollars now and plan for the future.

Suit #3 The Optimist-  The vacancy rate of properties will continue to improve through 2010. Affordability of homes has improved and will continue to improve through the year. The investor market is booming now and will continue for those who have cash and want to hold and rent.

Suit #4 The Redundant - Properties will continue to have declining values in 2010. Banks will continue to hold back on foreclosures. More home loan modifications will continue to happen. In short, same stuff, different day.

Suit #5 The Obvious   There was never a meltdown. It was just mass hysteria. The problem was predictable. What goes up must come down and what goes down will level off.  Duh!

I have to say, panelist number 5 resonated with me most. What goes up must come down and what goes down must level off because that is the natural cycle to the Housing Market. We are moving toward a norm of sorts. That is something we lost over the last decade of excessive loans and inflated home prices. There was no normal. But now we are creating a "New Normal". The collapse of the housing market may well have been predictable as panelist #5 mentioned in his response. I guess hind site is always 20/20.

What are your thoughts or predictions for 2010 ?

Which answer did you agree or disagree with ?

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