2010's Potentially Bumpy Road to Recovery in Marin
There's reason to be both optimistic and guarded about the 2010 real estate market. On the one hand, after more than a year of bad news for home prices, we finally are starting to see some steadiness in several Marin market segments. However, excitement about this possible turning point is tempered.
Many analysts are predicting another dip in the market, about mid-year. The reasons? Rising foreclosures, possibly higher mortgage rates and the end of government homebuyer incentives (the scheduled end-some predict there will be an extension).
Still, I say let's focus on some positive news while we have it! And that is, early signs of stabilization.
Despite the holiday season and unusually low housing inventory levels, home sales in the 4th quarter of 2009 (Oct 1-Dec 31) were up six percent over the 3rd quarter. If you want a really impressive statistic, how about this: year over year sales in Marin have surged by 69%. In Q4 2009, 488 homes sold, up from 289 homes in the last quarter of 2008. This underscores how gloomy the housing market became after the near economic collapse in September 2008. Buyers simply retreated.
Fortunately, thanks to government incentives, lower home prices and low interest rates, buyers came back, most clamoring for properties in the ‘$600,000 and below' market. In San Rafael, the 4th quarter of 2008 saw 14 homes sell in this segment. In late 2009, there were 38 sales-a 171% increase! Buyers who previously had been priced out of the Marin market jumped in.
As of this writing, it seems there could be a new round homebuyer incentives offered by California. The governor is proposing a $200 million package that would offer a $10,000 tax credit to all buyers of new or existing homes. Yes, even existing homeowners would qualify.
Average Home Prices: Compared Year over Year
City Q4 2009 Q4 2008 % change
Belvedere $3,257,500 $6,120,000 ↓47%
Corte Madera $928,821 $1,077,500 ↓14%
Fairfax $629,571 $699,364 ↓10%
Greenbrae $1,119,038 $1,080,000 ↑4%
Kentfield $2,196,308 $1,845,000 ↑19%
Larkspur $1,321,091 $1,128,000 ↑17%
Mill Valley $1,180,860 $1,336,309 ↓12%
Novato $530,344 $650,726 ↓19%
Ross $1,975,400 $2,443,125 ↓19%
San Anselmo $870,932 $1,035,267 ↓16%
San Rafael $652,072 $927,923 ↓30%
Sausalito $1,390,596 $1,687,667 ↓18%
Tiburon $2,414,474 $1,949,993 ↑24%
If you'd like to receive our full quarterly newlsetter for Marin County real estate, please email kmcginnis@fhallen.com
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