Is Shadow Inventory Bad?

By
Mortgage and Lending with America's Mortgage LLC

I have read several stories in the last month from organizations like RealtyTrac and others that they estimate that banks own another 3 million homes nationwide that are NOT on the market to be sold yet. This inventory is called shadow inventory and is widely considered to be bad news. Why? This further supply of homes will drop real estate prices lower is the expectation or it will cause the housing recovery to be slower.

But, let's look at the Denver market. Most "experts" think that banks own about 13,000 homes in shadow inventory currently in the Denver area. I would guess that half of those homes are worth $200,000 or less.

According to the local MLS data there is fewer than 3 months of unsold homes on the market priced under $200,000 here in Denver currently. And I would bet a large majority of those homes are short sales that most buyers don't have the patience to wait for.

In fact, over the last 6-8 months most of my clients buying homes under $200,000 have gotten into bidding wars on homes that are not short sales because there is so little inventory available.

Thus, it would be GREAT NEWS if the banks were to release to the market 1,000 or 2,000 of these homes every month in my opinion. What do you think?

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Tags:
denver
sellers market
realty trac
shadow inventory

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Rainmaker
455,639
Paul Guenther
Empire West Title Agency - Chandler, AZ
Empire West Title- Chandler, AZ

Lonnie,

 I heard the shadow inventory was 15 million, I also heard B of A was going to start releasing 2500 a month.  I haven't checked either of these stories out

Feb 03, 2010 02:40 PM #1
Rainmaker
343,891
Don Wixom
RE/MAX Executives Nampa, ID - Nampa, ID
"Looking out for your next move..."tm

Lonnie, it would be interesting, but then I believe the prices of the short ales would drop even more and continue a decline in prices... I've always thought that a non-short sale or non-distressed property should bring a premium price, but in our market, 60% of the inventory is distressed, making THAT the market. Wow!

Feb 03, 2010 02:53 PM #2
Rainer
49,980
Denise OnullDell
Santa Clarita Mobile Notary - Santa Clarita, CA
Mobile Notary Public/Real Estate Agent

The biggest mass of foreclosures hasn't even hit us yet!

Feb 12, 2010 12:45 PM #3
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Rainer
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Lonnie Glessner

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