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Why don't more people talk about this?

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Mortgage and Lending with Southeast Mortgage

Well it does get a few mentions but not like I thought it would. As we might or might not know, the Fed is going to stop buying mortgage backed securities at the end of March. They could extend that date but most likely they will not. What does this mean? Well it means that the really great rates we have enjoyed for quite some time now will most likely be rising. The current conventional 30 yr fixed rate is in the high 4's depending on credit score, and other loan adjustments. Let's just say it is a great rate right now. We should not quibble over 4.75% or 5.00%...its all good. However, that is about to change and in my opinion it will change rather quickly. Of course that is just my guess.

So lets take a look at the opinion of the bond guru, the one, the only Bill Gross of PIMCO. It is safe to say that when Bill talks, markets listen. Bill was recently quoted as saying that he could not figure out why mortgage rates were not .50% higher than they were right now. He said all of the technical and fundamental data pointed to higher rates than we currently have. Why do I mention all of this?

All of us, mortgage folks and realtors need to inform our borrowers/buyers that rates are very likely to go up at least half a point and perhaps more. This will most likely happen sooner rather than later. On a loan of $200,000 you are talking a payment of more than $60/mth higher. To some folks, that is the difference in buying the home they really want. A poll of "experts" was recently polled and most predict rates between 6.00% and 6.50% by the end of the year. I am going to try to do a better job communication to my clients that rates are most likely going to rise and probably in the near future.

 

Comments(5)

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Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

Sure, and the buyer is not going to believe that the agent is saying that to pursuade the buyer to buy sooner rather than later.

Better they read your blog post.  I'll bookmark it.

 

Feb 05, 2010 10:21 AM
Mark Towler
Southeast Mortgage - Atlanta, GA

Well you can lead a horse to water....

It is like the end of the buyers credits coming up. No one will worry until it gets too late. Then they will want to buy and close in 3 weeks.

Feb 05, 2010 11:39 AM
Dale Terry
Yadkinville, NC

Bill Gross knows what he is talking about.  With that said, how much money could you make if you knew rates were going up?  You might get on the other side of a trade.  So at present, with little demand in the mortgage business, I will assume that rates will stay the same for the short term.  Conversely, I will tell my clients that I believe housing prices are going to fall in some areas because of unemployment concerns and rising foreclosures.

One of the issues, higher rates affects a few, foreclosures affect us all.

Feb 08, 2010 03:48 AM
Charles Dailey
iLoan - NMLS ID#1947845 - Saint Paul, MN

You're totally right Mark.  I've found myself doing more 90 and even 120 day locks than I ever have in 14 years.  I suspect that rates are being held down by the euro right now but that will pass (probably right around the time the Fed backs out of the market, . . . great!).  If your clients need a little incentive to lock sooner than later, show them these forecasts: MBA and NAR.

Feb 09, 2010 07:02 AM
Mark Towler
Southeast Mortgage - Atlanta, GA

I don't think anyone will argue the comment about foreclosures having an affect on all of us. I agree. I am just afraid that if you think the housing market is slow now, let rates climb a point and see how demand goes.

Charles...4th qtr(2010) origination projections look really grim.

Feb 10, 2010 12:45 PM