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Ouch! The Media Bite..I want to read,"Okay, Everyone It's Okay to Buy Again"

By
Real Estate Agent with The County Land Company

So, here we are... real estate professionals, buyers and sellers and all the people maybe thinking about becoming a potential realtor, buyer or seller, and some of us, at least in my region, are sitting on our hands waiting for something to "happen" in the real estate market. 

Now, I know most people are not ready or don't want to sell, buy and move. I am one of them now. But you just know there are people out there that are just waiting for "something" to happen... but what are people waiting for? Well, current sellers are waiting for someone to buy their home and potential sellers are waiting for the buyers to come around until it seems "safe to sell their home." Potential buyers are waiting for I don't know what. It seems like a vicious circle to me. Here is my mystery. I am a statistician by nature...I love looking at numbers and trends and  I know that it may not be the only reason, but it seems that mortgage rates have hung us up...but they are still historically very, very low..(I looked at averages from 1963 to present day).

 I personally, don't understand it...maybe I am not "seasoned" enough to understand the standstill in this area. As a buyer I don't remember what it is like to pay, what I consider HUGE interest rates of 10-15% for a mortgage like in the early to mid 1980's. But does anyone else remember those interest rates? Or how about the 7-8% in more recent history, in the mid 1990's? 

The media...they like to brainwash us with their constant "hot topics" and flavor of the months. I get brainwashed with certain topics too...and it still doesn't stop me from reading the newpapers, or watching the news.  "The Bubble Has Burst," "Real Estate taking a Down Turn," On and On and On. It has been a buildup for years on topics like, "Is the real estate bubble going to burst?" and "Will the bubble burst right after you buy?" I especially like what I saw on the internet today,"Real Estate Bubble Crash, The Real Estate Bubble is Bursting. Protect Yourself now while you can." 

"Protect yourself now while you can"? It makes me feel like I need to take shelter in the basement, under the stairs, with rations of canned goods and bottled water.  Scary stuff! But what the heck is really going to happen? The market is going to spiral downwards, hurting everyone's economy and in part because we didn't take what the media was saying with a grain of salt. There was some truth in what the media was saying, everything has it's ups and downs..but the market goes down, with interest rates at historic lows?

So we read these and of course, think "Oh no, I am not buying now, the Real Estate market is terrible." It's like the big Shark Attack scare in the media a while back, all of a sudden, we were hearing about Shark Attacks all the time...were the really more Shark Attacks?...No. The media just zero'd in on them, we haven't heard about them before much, because there was bigger news to be told. Or how about things such as Train accidents? All of a sudden, we (at least in my area) were hearing all about train accidents for a while....but train accidents have always been around, unfortunately, we just haven't heard about them.  

Media Frenzy:Describing the behavior of the media when given a particularly item of news. The information content of the story is usually of secondary importance to the amount of publicity that it can generate, which of course leads to increased sales and profits for the media.

No whining here...after years of working in corporate America,  I find that real estate satisfies both my requirements of hard work and enjoying what I do. I am okay with a roller coaster effect and don't expect everything to be roses or on the "high" all the time. I am ready to weather the storm, to do what I enjoy to do. What goes up, must come down...but I would urge buyers to really do some numbers, instead of just listening to the media.

Some people may think that the interest rates are at 10%, because they are not doing the research. I say this as someone who just sold and bought a house this year, not as a real estate professional. This is a good time to buy: there are HUGE, FABULOUS deals right now, with a HUGE inventory to choose from. Interest rates are still marvelous, and they aren't going to go down too much, if at all. Homes are priced a bit lower now, so even if you have to pay a half of percent higher on a mortgage, you are going to at least even out with a great deal. I see it as an all around WIN-WIN situation.

Show All Comments Sort:
Tricia Jumonville
Bradfield Properties - Georgetown, TX
Texas REALTOR , Agent With Horse Sense

For some time I've been wanting to just smack some media folks who seem bound and determined to create a crash just so they can say, "See????" and preen themselves. 

 The term "self-fulfilling prophecy" comes irresistibly to mind.  In that, if you tell enough people the sky is falling for long enough, they'll believe you and act accordingly - thus causing the sky to fall.

(Grump, grump, grump)

Oct 15, 2006 07:19 AM
Melissa Mullany
The County Land Company - Saint Charles, IL
I have actually thought about the irony in the newspaper media also, in how they love to take our money and put a headline right above our $200 ad of "How the Real Estate Market Stinks." (Okay that was my fictional title, but illustrates a point, nonetheless.) Self fullfilling prophecy..absolutely. But although, I am grumpy about the media things too, it will also pass. Something else they feel worth bullying will come around...and real estate will be free again  :)
Oct 15, 2006 07:26 AM
Eddy Martinez
Nationwide Funding Group - Highland Park, CA
Great blog , it is a buyers market and things are well on the lending side of things :)
Oct 15, 2006 07:56 AM
Marguerite Crespillo
Marguerite Crespillo - Roseville, CA
The people who lose in real estate are the ones that life forces you to sell.  Death, Divorce, job loss, job relocation.  All things that no one can predict.  Otherwise, sit tight and wait till things come around again... they always do!
Oct 15, 2006 09:14 AM
Brian Brady
Matthews Capital Markets - Tampa, FL
858-699-4590

I hate to be the realist here but... I have three thoughts:

1- Housing is cyclical.  It continues to appreciate  at an average rate of 3-5%.  We've experienced unprecedented growth of 10% perannum over the last 5 years so a "reversion to the mean" is imminent.  this means you'll see flat prices for another 4 years.

2- Stop advertising because they print things that you don't like?  Your competition will crush you with their advertisement next to the negative story because the public will view them as the experts. 

3- There is an affordabilty problem.  Mortgage companies gave away money without checking te ability to prey the loans and those loans are just starting to go into default .  4 times the amount asre going into default next year!  that means that the foreclosure (quick sale) inventory will dominate the market in 2007 and drice prices dowm.  That's good for you because it will clear out the suckers and get prices in line with affordablity once again.  That's so much better than getting bled to death like we did in the 90s.

Adice:  Shift your business to deal with buyers.  Tell them that they can be offering 10% below list.  Make lots of offers and do well for buyers.  You'll set the stage as knowledgeable professionals for when the next boom comes...in 2010 

 

Oct 15, 2006 09:24 AM
Tricia Jumonville
Bradfield Properties - Georgetown, TX
Texas REALTOR , Agent With Horse Sense

Another thing I find interesting is that the media seems to see the real estate market as one big blob that's the same all across the country.  So, while they're proclaiming doom everywhere because of things that are happening on either coast, we're not seeing anything like what they're describing, and likely won't to the extremes that some of the markets will, because we never had the "bubble" that they did - just a slightly increased growth in prices. 

Adjust your business if necessary, but make sure that you're adjusting it for YOUR market, not for what's happening in California or NYC or Florida or someplace that you aren't but that the media talks about a lot. 

 

Oct 15, 2006 10:17 AM
Susan Trombley
Trombley Real Estate - Wake Forest, NC
Broker/Realtor, Raleigh, Cary, Wake Forest, Youngs

Yes you are right the media can and will hurt us and help us. Especially then they are talking about what the market is doing real estate wise and you need to know where they are getting their information. Because not all states are in the same market.

great blog thanks

Oct 15, 2006 11:41 AM
Rob Wills
Gilpin Realty Inc. - Everett, WA
It's time to start thinking outside of the box.
Oct 15, 2006 12:16 PM
Home Design
Alpharetta, GA
Home Design and Real Estate

Well said, I agree and have posted some similiar blogs about the medias control on the economy.  People put way to much weight on what is said on CNN.

Alpharetta Real Estate

Oct 15, 2006 12:27 PM
Mitchell J Hall
Manhattan, NY
Lic Associate RE Broker - Manhattan & Brooklyn

If you're waiting for the media to say OK It's time to Buy you will miss the next boom!

They are always a day late and a dollar short.

When everyone says it's OK to buy that is when it's time to SELL!

Oct 15, 2006 12:56 PM
Toby Boyce
C.G. Boyce Real Estate Co. - Delaware, OH
MBA, Delaware Ohio

I agree Mitchell that we can't wait for everyone to be ready. It is said that the market is usually six months ahead what the public believes. However, the media has put such a dooms-day message on this that it has scared a ton of buyers into hiding.

Oct 15, 2006 01:51 PM
Carl Guild
Carl Guild & Associates - East Hampton, CT
Central Connecticut Real Estate
Wait... there is gonna be a real estate bubble crash?!? Oh noooo!!!!
Oct 15, 2006 02:55 PM
Derek and Mariana Wagner
The Artisan Group- Keller Williams Premier Realty - Colorado Springs, CO
The Artisan Group - Colorado Springs REALTORS®

From what Ive heard, a Sellers Market means that the average DOM is 6 months or less. Buyers Market is 6+months. Our average DOM (Colo.Spgs.) has jumped from 3 months to 5 months. It IS a relatively big jump, but nothing spectacular. 

Media Schmedia... I can't watch the news.

Great Post! 

Oct 15, 2006 03:01 PM
Adam Tarr
MavRealty - Phoenix, AZ
PC -GRI, ABR, CDPE, RSPS, ePro - Designated Broker
We had the largest appreciation in the nation last year here in the Phx area.  We were bound to have a correction.  But you are right.  If there were some positive media pointing out the good, such as interest rates and jobs etc, then we might get back to an even keel quicker.  It is media bred reaction
Oct 15, 2006 05:07 PM
Ray Higdon
Forever Wealth Club - Fort Myers, FL
I agree with Brian's comments. Stop advertising and your competition will crush you. I have ramped up my advertising and marketing 500% with the market being down and it has certainly paid off. You cannot beat the media, you have to work them like they work all industries.
Oct 15, 2006 11:47 PM
Robert D. Ashby
Cruise Planners of South Florida - Plantation, FL
Providing Personalized Travel

OK, late to the party here to.  I guess I cannot take a day off from AR. 

First off, don't expect to ever see the media post something positive.  Negative news is what sells, fear sells, and that is what they do, sell news!

Brian is correct, we are in a time of correction.  Although not as violently swinging up and down as the stock market, the real estate market does have its down sides and up sides.  The avrage will settle over time at around 4-5%, just like the stock market (S&P 500) typically settles around 12% long-term.

Mortgage rates are going back to normal ranges as well.  Is it having a factor?  Only related to investors.  If someone is looking to buy a home to live in or as a second home, the interest rates are not enough of a factor to keep them from buying.  Based on a $250,000 loan amount, 1/8 of a percent amounts to only $26 per month.  Are they going to let that stop them?  No, more likely the will cut back their spending by 5 cups of Starbuck's coffee or something else.

Keep the proper perspectives and we will all stay inside the roller coaster car until the ride is over.

Oct 16, 2006 01:45 AM
Michael Roberts
Real Estate Professionals of Glynn - Saint Simons Island, GA
This is not a good thing to say but mankind loves to hear bad news and the media loves to print it.  Afterall if you hear X is down that means the guy with more than you is hurting.... The public tends to forget how interconnected we all are... I think in part it has something to do with envy.... then you have to throw in the "Lemming Mentality" that says jump, jump... not why am I jumping?  Afterall, we a herd animals and we need a leader and the media tries to assume that role for Joe Q Public.  So the problem tends to be the group oogle and leap.... And the general lack of individual thought......
Oct 16, 2006 02:29 AM
Tony and Suzanne Marriott, Associate Brokers
Serving the Greater Phoenix and Scottsdale Metropolitan Area - Scottsdale, AZ
Coldwell Banker Realty
The media is now busy on attempting to control the upcoming elections, so they have (for now) abandoned their efforts to control the housing market. :-)
Oct 16, 2006 02:32 AM
Ken Cook
Content, coding, marketing, host. - Marietta, GA
Content Marketer/Creator

I spend a great deal of my time re-educating the public, mostly investors. As a wholesale and direct lender specializing in real estate investment financing in Georgia and Florida I have experienced the good and the bad all on the same day many time. The press has done more to damage the industry than the economy possibly could have. Part of what I teach people is to forego the $1200 per month car payment and buy a new investment property even if it has a little negative cash flow at first. That car will devalue almost immediately and then rot. That house? It's going up in value even if you're in a down market now. GREAT POST and some AWESOME responses.

PLEASE! VOTE FOR FREE MARKET CAPITALISM so we can take care of our own instead of letting Robin Hood politicians redistribute YOUR wealth under power of law. Vote FAIR TAX, Tort Reform and Social [Program(s)] reform!

Oct 16, 2006 04:27 AM
Eddy Martinez
Nationwide Funding Group - Highland Park, CA
Brian i actually forsee the next boom in mid 09
Oct 16, 2006 04:40 AM