Birmingham AL real estate sales & inventory trends through January, 2010 were a disappointment when viewed in relation to the perceived momentum of November and December of 2009. As realtors, we had viewed the positive signs of increased sales and lower inventories as reason for optimism moving into the new year but January's preliminary figures continue to support the notion that this is clearly still a buyer's market with plenty of inventory to choose from in virtually all price ranges. Take a look at this graphical depiction of months inventory over the past 15 months:
Months inventory is a measure of the balance of supply and demand for housing. It is calculated as units of inventory (# of homes on the market) divided by the units sold. The graphic shows the raw months inventory as well as the 90 day moving average. The trend line for both measures is upward for January, 2010 which suggest excess supply. The 90 day average is very similar to 2009 but the raw data is higher than the prior year. Birmingham AL real estate sales & inventory trends suggest that this is still very clearly a buyers market with excess inventory in relation to sales. In short, there is an imbalance with regard to supply and demand. Take a look at the raw data below, which is the basis for the chart above:
Clearly, January is one of the weakest months during the year as real estate follows a very predictable cycle. Having said that, Birmingham AL real estate sales & inventory trends during November and December suggested a skewing of the cycle, presumably due to the effects of the federal tax credit. Given the strength of November and December, the hope was that momentum would carry into the new year. There are still some other signs that this could hold true but January's numbers are a sign in the opposite direction. For example, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported last week that mortgage applications had risen 21% over the previous week to climb back to levels in December. For the complete article, please go to MBA. It is really too early to tell whether January's weak numbers suggest a trend and the hope is certainly that volumes will increase in the months ahead as we approach the April 30th expiration of the federal tax credits. For more on the federal tax credit, go to tax guide.
In summary, what all this means is that buyers continue to have a large selection of inventory and a strong negotiating position. For sellers, it means that you should price aggressively (or at least realistically) and stage your home for the best possible showing experience for potential buyers. Homes in tip top condition, staged properly and priced right will still sell, even in this buyers market. Please contact me via email at sold@markcrain.com or via my cell phone at 205-919-3821 for information about properties that are listed or sold in your area or if you have questions about an appropriate listing price for your home. Go to Birmingham MLS to search for homes meeting your criteria for location and features. I can email properties that meet your criteria directly to your inbox automatically on a daily, weekly or monthly basis to help you assess the market from a buyer or seller standpoint.
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