Let the games begin!

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with Tutas Towne Realty, Inc and Garden Views Realty, LLC BK607690

Let the games begin! Ok, so I just received a call today. I’ve kind of been expecting it but was hoping it wouldn’t come for a while. The call I received was from an Appraiser. Now, since I sell a lot of properties in my market, I get one of these about every week, asking me about a recent sale, so they can use it in their appraisal. I always try to answer any of their questions and try to be as helpful as I can. Why? Because I want to be the “go to guy” in my market. Also, Appraisers buy and sell houses. I usually get a couple of listings a year from Appraisers wanting to sell in my market area, Poinciana Fl. So having them call me is a good thing.

Today was different. Today, he was asking me about one of my pending listings. He had plenty of sold comparables but the few he had, that were pending, were listed for about 10% below recent comparable sales. I spoke to him for a few minutes and he explained to me that he was making downward adjustments based on current market conditions. Did you catch that? Downward adjustments. As in, discounting the value of the sold comparables. Folks, this is not a good thing. This means lenders are checking and double checking house values and are wanting to see “true” market conditions as opposed to just recent sales. It also means values in Poinciana Fl are coming down. I already knew this but was hoping I was wrong.

Poinciana is one of those Florida markets where you can still find affordable housing. Most homes are in the $185,000 to $250,000 range. What happened over the last couple of years, was that, all the “investors” from S. Florida and NY were feasting on Poinciana real estate. They were here by the hundreds and purchasing vacant lots and new construction like crazy. Because of this, houses that were selling for $100,000 in 2004 were selling for $225,000 by mid 2005. Lots that could be bought for $10,000 in 2004 skyrocketed to $60,000 to $70,000 by early 2005. Fortunes were made in Poinciana during 2005. But, and this is a big BUT, if you didn’t get out of the investor market by December 2005, you are now stuck. As of this morning, there are 1,500 houses on the market in Poinciana. 800 of these are less than 18 months old and most of them are vacant investor owned properties. They are flips that have flopped. Not only that, but builders have pre-sold hundreds of houses that they have just now started building. These houses were sold at 2005 prices.

This, my friends, is a recipe for disaster. Property values are plummeting. Poinciana is in trouble. My Sellers know this. I have told them we must sell and we must sell now. It is going to get worse before it gets better. Our peaceful little town has been raped by over zealous builders and fly by night investors. And frankly, it *&^%* me off! But what do you do? It is what it is and I have to deal with it. My strategy is to become the short sale and foreclosure expert in my area. I want to be the “go to guy” if you are in a distressed situation. I can’t change the market but I can try to position myself to help as many people as I can to get through this and hopefully still have a shirt on their back.

I expect to be very busy. I expect to make a lot of money. I expect it to be a “bitter sweet” success. Let the games begin!

Clip art courtesy of madlattern.com(madlattern art)

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 Tutas Towne Realty, Inc handles Florida real estate sales, Florida short sales, Florida strategic short sales, Florida pre-foreclosure sales, Florida foreclosures in Kissimmee Florida Short Sales, Davenport Florida Short Sales, Haines City Florida Short Sales, Poinciana Florida Short Sales, Solivita Florida Short Sales,  Orlando Florida Short Sales, Celebration Florida Short Sales, Windermere Florida Short Sales. Serving all of Polk, Osceola and Orange Counties Florida. Florida Short Sale Broker. Short Sale Florida.

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Rainmaker
1,142,050
Bryant Tutas
Tutas Towne Realty, Inc and Garden Views Realty, LLC - Winter Garden, FL
Selling Florida one home at a time

Hey Guys, good to wake up to a post that was raised from the dead. Good points on both sides.

In case anyone ever wonders, I would never delete a comment from from anyone ever. UNLESS is was laced with profanity. Other than that all opinions and comments are welcomed. Just always remember my post are PUBLIC.

In this case, this is a great discussion. Thanks

Oct 20, 2006 12:35 AM #66
Ambassador
557,018
"The Lovely Wife" (Broker Bryantnulls Wife) The One And Only TLW.
President-Tutas Towne Realty, Inc. - Kissimmee, FL

"Good Morning Everyone"

BB's Lovely Wife here...What a great discussion this is.

Wonder what you would all think about the Multiply Licensing problem we have in Florida?

Hmmm...Realtor/Appraiser...What a mix that is and it's legal.

Makes you wonder...When the offers come in they arrive with the Realtors Apprisal...

Stuff those wallets...Baby...Stuff those wallets!

TLW "The Lovely Wife"...Kum La Ka Lakka...ROAR!

Oct 20, 2006 01:00 AM #67
Anonymous
Nick

Good morning Jeff and others. You are welcome to the 'last word' if you like. The appr/broker comment is more like a joke and the'insert laugh here' is called a clue. Now I understand that there are different moitvation and interests on both sides of that coin. And yes, I do get along with some brokers who are more on the honest side, but many have come across my desk, tried to influence me to do things when we were in a crazy market or straight out committing fraud and I personally am not having it. I have comes across multiple contracts in a deal, and obviously only one of them is real. To answer your question 3 years. Yes, 3 short years of working my tail off and will say with complete confidence, that I am familiar the major in and outs of the mortgage business, and I feel that I know my job. I am ethical all around, no worries there. I will never do something that is even borderline.

So I welcome your debate. But lets stick to the point. Broker Bryant made a comment in his post about downward adjustments. George commented about appraisers influencing the direction of the market. I fired off in my long post with the bolded points being in quotes and my comments. Ok , so they veered a little towards the end, Buy I would love to hear what you think I said without facts. About reports being kicked into unerwriting for checking a certain box? The entire point of my entering the thread is noted at the beggining of this paragraph. That is what I was debating. I even think that Bryant agreed with some of my statements. Somewhere in there you commented that I said I was a loan officer, etc.. So I think maybe you got a little confused and lost within the thread. Read Georges first 2 o 3 posts from the beggining, read my 'bolded' post, if you notice everything went of tangent, then fine. If you respond talking about guidlines etc, you missed the point. This is getting repetitive.. sorry.

Let me know what you want to dicuss, or Maybe Bryant will write a new post about this topic and we will post another 60 something comments on that thread. I can easily defend my position about adjustments, market conditions, using pending sales etc. So your experience may be greater, but I've been in the trenches in a booming South Florida Market, so no BS get by me. BTW, I was thinking last night as my PC was shutting down. The definition of market value is the most propbable price a home with sufficient market expsoure will bring in. So ths house is worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it. IMHO, a pending sale is what someone is willing to pay for a home in that market, therefore that seems like a good indicator to me.

And yes, Mrs BB, I hold both lic., but they never come into play in the same deal. 

So Jeff, we can drag it on. But please, quote my exact words so I can see exactly where you think I am going wrong. Also, I just noticed that you folks can edit your posts after the fact. Dont change your words now!!

 

Oct 20, 2006 01:25 AM #68
Ambassador
557,018
"The Lovely Wife" (Broker Bryantnulls Wife) The One And Only TLW.
President-Tutas Towne Realty, Inc. - Kissimmee, FL

"Nick"

I certainly was not pointing a finger at you. If you have mentioned having ML's I have not noticed it.

I was simply curious what folks think about ML's. My presentation of my comment is the way I present comments. It's me. Just the way I am.

That is all, that is it, nothing more. No hidden agenda Sir.

Just a curious mind that has dealt with ML's in the past and had a few bad experiences.

I hope I have not offended you in any way. If I have please accept this Lovely Wife's apology. :>

TLW "The Lovely Wife"...Kum La Ka Lakka...ROAR!

Oct 20, 2006 01:47 AM #69
Anonymous
Nick

Mrs BB, no offense at all. Didnt feel any finger pointing at me.
I guess I have that stronger type personality where things come off a little more 'abrasive' than I mean them :)

But I came back to comment, the problem with Multiple lic's is when it a Realtor(r)/Mortgage Broker combo. Because in that case, the broker ego pushes to get the deal done in unethical ways becuase of their interest in the sale (i.e. the commiss. on the sale also).

oh, and my skin is much tougher, so no worries. I wouldn't be offended. But I love heated discussion. Mr BB. its like bad publicity, but I got the post count UP!!! :)

best regards to all. Yes, also to George and Jeff.

BIG ego or should I say multiple EGO.

BIG nick (is really under 6 ft tall, way under.. haha)

Oct 20, 2006 02:05 AM #70
Ambassador
557,018
"The Lovely Wife" (Broker Bryantnulls Wife) The One And Only TLW.
President-Tutas Towne Realty, Inc. - Kissimmee, FL

"Hey Nick"

Good. I very small fingers and I do not use them to point...They are easily broken you know! LOL. See :>

We have had our share of "stuffing the wallet" as I call it.

It is such a blatant conflict of interest. I am real big on The Code. Just a Code king of gal. I can tell you are also big on that Code...Big Nick!

Glad you have tough skin. You need it in this business.

I know you guys like to go at. I watch and sometimes you all just crack me up! Bad Pub...Funny!

Don't you get me started on the Multiply Ego thing. I could get carried away with that.

It is best if I tip my cowgirl hat right on out of this little box!

Tipping Baby...Tipping...Must go spread some love in the Rain!

TLW "The Lovely Wife"...Kum La Ka Lakka...ROAR!

Oct 20, 2006 02:41 AM #71
Rainmaker
1,142,050
Bryant Tutas
Tutas Towne Realty, Inc and Garden Views Realty, LLC - Winter Garden, FL
Selling Florida one home at a time

Ok here's some good reading.

http://commerce.appraisalfoundation.org/html/2006%20USPAP/std1.htm

When reading through this it clearly states the appraiser MUST take into consideration economic conditions and data, especially if it affects the value of the property. If the market is declining he MUST note this is in the appraisal. This is not a choice this is a requirement on any government related loan i.e Va, FHA, Fannie Mae, etc.

Oct 20, 2006 02:49 AM #72
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749,610
Jeff Belonger
Social Media - Infinity Home Mortgage Company, Inc - Cherry Hill, NJ
The FHA Expert - FHA Loans - FHA mortgages - USDA loans - VA Loans

Hey Nick... there is too much to go back and read .....etc etc... but overall, next time you jump ito a discussion and we don't know anything about you, tell us what you do....  considering that you are both a loan officer and an appraiser. It does make all the difference in the world. Because as I go back and read a lot of it....it can be confusing on what position that you are taking and why.....and when someone knows what your background is, it can help a little...at least for me to understand where you are coming from and why.

Thanks....everyone, enjoy your weekend. Oh yea...didn't Bryant ask you why you hadn't joined yet? I could see someone that was not part of this industry..... just curious.

Oct 20, 2006 11:04 AM #73
Ambassador
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George Souto
George Souto NMLS #65149 FHA, CHFA, VA Mortgages - Middletown, CT
Your Connecticut Mortgage Expert

Bryant just curious, are you interpreting that the appraiser has to "note that there is a declining market" with him having the right to adjust the value of the house down?

Oct 20, 2006 01:05 PM #74
Rainmaker
1,142,050
Bryant Tutas
Tutas Towne Realty, Inc and Garden Views Realty, LLC - Winter Garden, FL
Selling Florida one home at a time

George, In my opinion, yes. I am not an appraiser. However, the example in my post is a true case. And it happened again yesterday. Appraisers in my are ARE making downward adjustments due to market conditions. This is no different from '04 when they were making upward adjustments on comps for "time" and market conditions. I think this is where is falls:

 

Identify any extraordinary assumptions necessary in the assignment;
 

 

Comment: An extraordinary assumption may be used in an assignment only if:

  • it is required to properly develop credible opinions and conclusions;

  • the appraiser has a reasonable basis for the extraordinary assumption;

  • use of the extraordinary assumption results in a credible analysis; and

  • the appraiser complies with the disclosure requirements set forth in USPAP for extraordinary assumptions

 

AS a perfect example, there was a condo development in Kissimmee that was built and sold to overseas investors wanting to do short term vacation rentals. These were being sold brand new for $225,000. This is a true story by the way and happened about 7 years ago. These were being sold with the promise that the on site management company would rent them out for x amount of dollars every week and they would pay for themselves. Well it was a rip off. The development had about 50 units and all were sold in a short period of time. Within about 2 years all were foreclosed on and taken back by the original lenders. They were placed on the market at prices ranging from $65,000 to $85,000. There had been a couple of resales to other unsuspecting investors in the $200,00 range. How would you appraise these current units if one went pending? Would you base it on the historical sales price of $200,000 or would you have to make an adjustment "downward" to reflect current market conditions? Obviously, you would have to make a downward adjustment. This is an extreme case but true.

In my market right now, whether they have to or not, appraisers are making downward adjustments based on market conditions and info obtained on pending transactions. The reason they called me was to find out the price the pendings were under contract at. I could not give then the selling price but could tell them they sold at list price or less with seller concessions of 3%.

It may not be happening where you are at but is definitely happening all over Florida.

 

Oct 20, 2006 01:34 PM #75
Ambassador
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George Souto
George Souto NMLS #65149 FHA, CHFA, VA Mortgages - Middletown, CT
Your Connecticut Mortgage Expert

I would think that the appraiser would now use the lower prices, he can't go back two years, the lower prices were the most recent and he has to use those, because that is what he has to work with, he didn't create the price.

The appraiser stating on the appraisal the market conditions is required, that alerts us to what they are seeing in the field and it allows the bank/mortgage company to access the risk. But it seems to me that in Florida, the appraiser are going beyond what they are required to do.  Warn, yes...but discount"  

The market over here is flattening out here, but I have not seen what you are experiencing in FL., I hope you keep it over there.  Good luck with it.

Oct 20, 2006 02:00 PM #76
Rainer
62,574
Nick M.
Certified Residential Appraiser- West Palm Beach Real Estate - West Palm Beach, FL
Realtor-Appraiser in West Palm-South Florida Real Estate Appraiser

i'm back. didnt notice these posts, I wasn't signed up to receive notification.So 'wow!' to the situation on those units, Bryant. I wonder what the comps were in the area 7 years ago?..I'm guessing much lower than 200K. Someone probably broke a few laws there and pushed that value. I can tell your all about the 'Code'.  

Getting back to the appraisal adjustments, I could see how there could be negative adjustments for time here. If there are limited comps that are most similar in size and location, age, style then you would use that you have within an expanded range and time, and use a combinaton of each (older sale and one from a competing subdivision, etc). It all depends on what the area is doing and how much data is available. Well, you all know that. 

If a time adjustment (or a condition adjustment) is made whether positive or negative, then a comment describing why should be made. For a time adjustment, I need to horde some data to prove my point, about 1 yrs worth and get a final percentage for the past year. 'the stinker' is when you check the current listings on the market and find a home sitting on the market for months and months which is similar to the subject in size >ouch< and listed just above the price it looks like the appraisal is coming to. Makes you wonder.. Having this license seems like gambling. let me see those comps again? 

hi jeff, just to clarify. I'm not a loan officer.. and i guess for the record, not actively appraising. I dropped off a while ago when the market got tight in end of 2005. just doing my share as a local Realtor® now and applying to the state for my appraiser certification. Yes, for the moment, technically I am (drop head in shame) just a trainee..(who has been stepped on too many times). 


So, obviously I AM guilty of getting a sore nerve squeezed and going off. now i see that huge post, and realize even more so that i overeacted. my apoligies all around. let me chant.. 'stay level headed, stay level, stay.." thanks for George for pointing out the obvious and keeping his cool first. 


Mortgage George, I think in Florida we got investor pushed,.(IMHO) by both the flipper, foreclosure guy, builder, etc. There is a development in an area here that put up a sign last year for Single Family Homes starting at $399,900. and I was like "what?!".. with the comps in that area?!? now after permitting, clearing the land, etc.. the sales office trailer goes in and the now sign reads 'starting at $299,900. I'm curious as to how many units they sacrificed that 100K spread on! 

just my 2 cents. I guess we can all get along! Just kidding.. of course we can.

nick 

 

Oct 22, 2006 01:41 AM #77
Rainmaker
1,142,050
Bryant Tutas
Tutas Towne Realty, Inc and Garden Views Realty, LLC - Winter Garden, FL
Selling Florida one home at a time

Hi Nick, There was definitely fraud involved in the selling of these units. It was and is still a big mess. Lawsuits flying everywhere.

Now rules for debate.  Debates can be as heated and intense as anyone wants to get. But always respect the person. Debate the issue, respect the person.

Personally, I don't think anyone crossed the line on this thread. You guys can debate on my posts anytime. It's why I write them.

Ok off to Church!

   

 

Oct 22, 2006 01:53 AM #78
Ambassador
3,781,012
George Souto
George Souto NMLS #65149 FHA, CHFA, VA Mortgages - Middletown, CT
Your Connecticut Mortgage Expert

 

Nick, no need to apologize. I think the more each one saw where the other was coming from, we started to understand each others point of view.  It would be pretty boring if we all agreed all the time on everything, but by discussing things, maybe we can walk away with a better perspective.

The information above is helpful to me in understanding what is happenning in FL. 

I agree with Bryant everyone stayed within the lines, and Bryant I just got back from Church, and I almost cleared the building with my singing. 

  

Oct 22, 2006 06:54 AM #79
Rainmaker
453,646
Allison Stewart
St.Cloud Homes - Saint Cloud, FL
St. Cloud Fl Realtor, Osceola County Real Estate 407-616-9904

Thanks for the insightful post. There is no question we are headed into turbulent times, and upside down closings. Lenders are gun shy and fearful of being burned. We need to be extra diligent these days.Hopefully we are not living in "Paradise Lost"

 

 

Oct 24, 2006 11:07 PM #80
Rainmaker
201,806
Stephanie Edwards-Musa
thredUP.com - The Woodlands, TX
knitwit at thred UP
Bryant, before I start reading all of the comments-this same thing happened to me a few years back.  The appraiser was not so straight forward though, I had to squeeze it out of him why he needed to know.  It was not a pretty conversation.
Aug 12, 2007 07:58 AM #81
Rainmaker
201,806
Stephanie Edwards-Musa
thredUP.com - The Woodlands, TX
knitwit at thred UP

OK, I guess I will throw in my 2 cents.  I don't know what more I can add really..but here goes.

An appraisal to me should be 2+2=4.  A downward appraisal is like saying 2+2 might equal 3 if the market continues to go down.  BUT what if the market turns and 2+2=6? 

I found this conversation to be very interesting, especially to see an appraiser view on it.  I understand what all is being said, but that doesn't mean I have to like it.  I'm just thankful that we are in a better market over here.

Aug 12, 2007 08:13 AM #82
Rainmaker
1,142,050
Bryant Tutas
Tutas Towne Realty, Inc and Garden Views Realty, LLC - Winter Garden, FL
Selling Florida one home at a time
Stephanie, Like it or not...it's true in some markets. It makes sense if you think about it. And the way the lenders are taking a beating right now it will become more common. Thanks for taking the time to read through all these comments.
Aug 12, 2007 11:31 AM #83
Rainmaker
201,806
Stephanie Edwards-Musa
thredUP.com - The Woodlands, TX
knitwit at thred UP

Hi Bryant,  It does make sense.  But here is another thought.  The banks have been out of control for many years, IMO and this is another way for them to have control over something.  Do we really want the banks to control our Markets? 

Hmm.  It's a little scary to me, even though I understand why they are doing it.  Just a little more food for thought.  :)

Aug 16, 2007 12:21 AM #84
Rainer
332,782
Irene Kennedy Realtor® in Northwestern NJ
Weichert - Lopatcong, NJ

BB,

Here I am almost 2 years after the last comment - and you're right - it still makes great reading!

Aug 04, 2009 09:49 AM #85
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