There are several indicators to look for to see if housing starts are going to slow down. Many people in the housing industry look at lumber prices and orders, as well as other housing material orders.
It recently occurred to me, while talking to a friend of mine in the blueprinting business, that if house plan orders and printing of blueprints slows down, then a housing start slowdown is surely on the way. This was kind of like a light bulb going off in my head.
In Tuscaloosa, Alabama, there are more houses on the market than ever before. I keep wondering when it's going to slow a bit to allow for the buyers to catch up, but builders just keep building.
Personally, from being a builder myself in the past, I think that the local builders can't afford to stop building because they have been living off of the construction draw money that they receive from the local banks. This is a dangerous situation to be in and at some point, the piper must be paid.
I surely don't want to be perceived as being negative, but I think that there are going to be some builders in trouble soon, especially in Tuscaloosa, Alabama - just check with your local blueprinter to find out.
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