It’s been a while now since I’ve used this forum to address any topic directly relevant to our Industry. There’s a simple reason for this, day after day I see, I read, I hear reports from various sources providing commentary and projections on the future of the market and the industry, so the last thing the world needs is another wind bag blowing smoke.
Here are the facts for 2009 in the Jackson Hole Commercial Real Estate Market;
Total No. Leases: 7
Total No. Building Sales: 4
Total No. Lot Sales: 1
Total No. Transactions: 12
Total Volume: $17.9m
1. Transactions include commercial leases, commercial building sales and commercially zoned land sales as reported in the MLS.
2. Wyoming is a non-disclosure state so not all transactions are reported.
3. The majority of lease transactions are conducted outside of the MLS directly between the Landlord and the Tenant.
What does this mean? Truthfully - Not very much. By the numbers 2009 was a more ‘normal’ year in the context of the past decade. 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 were ridiculously high, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 were generally on par with 2009.
However, coming off a 4 year sugar high, 2009 felt like detox for our industry and for our city and county revenue streams. Less permit activity, less fees paid for applications etc.
As we know, perception is reality. 2009’s perception was pain. 2010’s forecast…you’re not going to get one here, try the hundreds of commercial commentating windbags, take the average of the forecasts, divide by your age and then stand on your head. That should give it some clarity.
Seriously, what we do know is that there is little to no commercial lending available at present and nationally the CMBS market will face many new challenges in 2010 as existing loans fall due without a new vehicle to pick them up. Until the national CMBS picture gains some clarity and direction, we don't expect to see any significant recovery in the Commercial Real Estate market.
Meagan Hill is a Commercial Real Estate Investments Specialist and Principal of NAI Jackson Hole servicing the Jackson Hole WY and Teton Valley ID markets.
For further information, contact Meagan at (307) 734-8700 or email@example.com