It's that time again. We get to look back at the year ending 2009, as we hope to see signs of recovery for 2010.
Mris recently released it MRIS Economic and Market Watch Report for the 4th Quarter, 2009. It provides detailed information on market performance for Maryland, Pennsylvania, the District of Columbia, Virginia, and West Virginia. It provides data on market performance on a Statewide and County wide basis, as well as zip code statistics for each County.
As you take a look at the information, in some Counties/Cities, market performance varies widely across zip codes. So, for your County, it is helpful to examine the "averages" in different zip codes to see how they compare to peformance numbers for the jurisdiction as a whole, If a disproportionate share of sales activy is bunched in a small geographic area, the City/County "averages" will be skewed accordingly.
For example, In Baltimore City,1,321 homes sold in the 4th quarter, a 105% increase in the number of transactions from the 3rd quarter of 2009. During that period prices declined by 16%. However, the question is, does the 16% reduction provide a reliable reflection of the city as a whole. In the case of Baltimore, I don't think it does. Consider this:
351 of the 1,321 sales (27%) were concentrated in 2 out of 20 zip codes;
- Prices in 21230 (South Baltimore) declined 26.19% with (156 transactions); and
- Prices in 21224 (Canton) declined 21.67% (195 transactions).
18 of the remaining zip codes had price declines less than 16%;
6 recorded declines of less than 5%; 3 recorded price increases
- 21201--11.10% increase (16 transactions)
- 21202--20.24% increase (25 transactions)
- 21225 15.51% increase with (26 transactions
There are many reasons why some areas in a jurisdiction do better than others and getting into all of the factors is beyond the scope of this discussion. However, you can reproduce this type of analysis for any of the States or Counties that interest you. I think you will find it enlightenting and lend credence to the National Association of Realtors, tag line---Every market is different. As you drill down on a neighborhood basis, you get a much clearer idea of what is going on and why.
I wish you the best in 2010. Visit my website at www.remarkableprop.com to learn more.
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