The Economy Grew 5.9% in the Fourth Quarter, BUT

Reblogger Lenn Harley
Real Estate Agent with Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate 303829;0225082372

Jay Beckingham writes that "The recession is over". 

I'm so glad to hear that good news because NOW. . . . . .

  • The unemployment figure will fall to an economically viable rate of about 6% or lower.
  • The number of foreclosures will fall to a rate considered normal for a viable economy following a recession.
  • Home owners will cease to walk away from the burdensome mortgage that equals twice the market value of their property.
  • Children will no longer hear the frightening evening news predicting more families losing their homes.

My hobby as a real estate market prognosticator will be much easier because all I'll have to read is the investment in software and computers.  I wasn't aware that this statistic was the primary economic index.

WAIT!  There is that little voice again.  "Wait for the adjusted numbers next month".

The "indisputable" will be disputed.

Courtesy, Lenn Harley, Broker, Homefinders.com, 800-711-7988.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

 

Original content by Jay Beckingham 385907

BUT NOTHING!!!!!

The economy grew 5.9% period!

That's the facts, Jack!

It may be, and will be mentioned that that growth came after a 2.2% increase in the 3rd quarter.

Now for all of you naysayers, quickly click out of the post, and go immediately to Constantly Negative News, also known as CNN for some sort of negative spin. Go ahead, it'll probably make you feel better.

For everyone else, read on!

The recession is over!

Even CNNMoney.com is reporting that most economists feel the recession crashed somewhere last summer. It must have killed them to reach that conclusion, and actually report it.

Let's see now;

"investment in software and equipment grew at the fastest pace in almost a decade," so says Bloomberg's Timothy Homan.

Today's report showed purchases of equipment and software increased at an 18.2% percent pace in the fourth quarter, the most since 2000. Once again Homan's the source. I like this guy! 

"the rise in domestic product marked the best performance in more than six years," so says the Commerce Department.

Okay, all is not perfect, it never is. We still have some areas of concern... yada, yada, yada

BUT!

It is indisputable that we are headed in the right direction. I mean how many cliches would you like;

crawl before you walk, walk before you run

You are getting this, aren't you?

There's been a substantial improvement over the last two quarters.

The recession died!

The fourth quarter GDP increased 5.9%

But

BUT NOTHING!!!

Let's continue to go forward!

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Rainmaker
516,438
Russell Lewis
Realty Austin, Austin Texas Real Estate - Austin, TX
Broker,CLHMS,GRI

Wow, it's the crack of dawn on a Saturday morning and you have already posted 3 or 4 new articles?  As far as this bit of good "news" I have my doubts, and frankly unemployment is not going to drop below 10% or where ever we are now for quite some time. Sorry to be a buzz kill but it's just not happening. In spite of my usually "guarded optimism", I have a feeling that in the near future "WERE DOOMED"... Yes, I stole the phrase from you but it sure fits for now ;-D 

Feb 26, 2010 10:10 PM #1
Rainmaker
4,797,811
Gabe Sanders
Real Estate of Florida specializing in Martin County Residential Homes, Condos and Land Sales - Stuart, FL
Stuart Florida Real Estate

Lenn, one indicator does not make a robust recovery.  I agree.

Feb 26, 2010 10:41 PM #2
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Ed Silva
RE/MAX Professionals, CT 203-206-0754 - Waterbury, CT
Central CT Real Estate Broker Serving all equally

Lenn, I'll reiterate, you did get a lot done so early. Please note the ground is covered in too much snow for you to get that worm.

As for the turn in our recession, I would reserve that report until the unemployment figures come down. Until we get our people working we are really going no place

Feb 26, 2010 10:43 PM #3
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Richard Iarossi
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage - Crofton, MD
Crofton MD Real Estate, Annapolis MD Real Estate

Lenn,

The bean counters can say anything they want...but...until the unemployment rate comes back down to around 5% the country will remain in a world of hurt.

Rich

Feb 26, 2010 10:46 PM #4
Rainmaker
5,085,970
Barbara Todaro
RE/MAX Executive Realty - Franklin, MA
Marketing Agent for The Todaro Team

Ditto to Richard's comment.....

Feb 26, 2010 11:02 PM #5
Rainmaker
1,522,098
Gary L. Waters Broker Associate, Bucci Realty
Bucci Realty, Inc. - Melbourne, FL
Fifteen Years Experience in Brevard County

A month of positive statistics is good for TV but let us see what the next six months bring!

Feb 26, 2010 11:40 PM #6
Rainmaker
3,841,220
Dorie Dillard CRS GRI ABR
Coldwell Banker United Realtors® ~ 512.750.6899 - Austin, TX
Serving Buyers & Sellers in NW Austin Real Estate

Good morning Lenn,

You are so right on and up early!!! One indicator does not mean we are on the road to recovery...the government does not want to listen to the people and think they know best for all of us..we are in for serious trouble down the road. The unemployment rate needs to get down 50% before anyone can say things are looking better.

Feb 27, 2010 12:01 AM #7
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Jim Crawford
Crye-Leike REALTORS® - Atlanta, GA
Jim Crawford Atlanta Best Listing Agents & REALTOR

The 4th quarter was when all the government monies hit the fan in terms of 8K credits, and replenishing auto inventories under cash for clunkers.  Any growth after a free fall even looks incredible.  An economist would amuse himself with this and entitle could write a post and call it "Funwith Numbers!"   The DJIA stock market can collapse from a 14400 level to 6500 and climbback to 10000 points on the DJIA, but the fact of the matter is no matter what the percentages of gain on, the real numbers...the reality indicatesa financial tsunami occurred.  As the writer of the post you re-blog said..."That's the facts Jack!"

Feb 27, 2010 12:30 AM #8
Rainer
295,550
Stephen Kappre
KW Hometown - Mantua, NJ
Helping You Home

I'll be last to know maybe if the recession has turned and we are headed north. I'll just be happy when people are paying bills (and so will everyone else) and staying in their homes. We are not clear yet. Did someone mysteriously add a million jobs when I wasn't looking?

Feb 27, 2010 12:33 AM #9
Rainmaker
922,059
Larry Brewer - Benchmark Realty llc
Benchmark Realty LLc - Nashville, TN

Getting better is relative. I guess that before you know it, 10 percent unemployment will be good enough to brag about. Until Pelosi is out of office, businesses will not be sppending money or hiring extra people.

Feb 27, 2010 01:26 AM #10
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1~Judi Barrett
Integrity Real Estate Services 118 SE AVE N, Idabel, OK 74745 - Idabel, OK
BS Ed, Integrity Real Estate Services -IDABEL OK

McCurtain County Oklahoma (where I live and work, raise my family, etc) hit all time high for unemployment.  We have the highest unemployment of any county in Oklahoma... It does not feel like the recession is over here.. we have not stopped the downhill slide yet.  It has to stop going down before it can go up!

Feb 27, 2010 01:37 AM #11
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1~Judi Barrett
Integrity Real Estate Services 118 SE AVE N, Idabel, OK 74745 - Idabel, OK
BS Ed, Integrity Real Estate Services -IDABEL OK

I so enjoyed visiting with you yesterday. Thank you for taking the time!

Feb 27, 2010 01:38 AM #12
Rainmaker
455,579
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Lenn - As one who is regularly criticized for presenting negative news, I'm amazed at the number of folks who see positive news in such insignificant facts.  GDP growth is tool used to describe when a recession begins and ends; and in the past, rising GDP was a pretty good indicator of when growth was beginning.  This, however, is not a typical recession, and the recovery will be far from typical.  As many have described, this will be a "jobless recovery," and that for most, is no recovery at all.  

Feb 27, 2010 05:28 AM #13
Rainmaker
183,995
Laura Gray
RE/MAX Realty Group - Gaithersburg, MD

Lenn - Every newspaper , TV and radio station has a SPIN doctor that creates the latest and greatest news in regards to our financial recovery. Unfortunately , these indicators in and of themselves can be very deceiving, if they are all truly combined and woven together, the sad truth would still be there.

 

We are far away from being a fraction of where we were priorn to the bubble.

Feb 27, 2010 06:59 AM #14
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Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

John M.  You did notice where my tongue was firmly planted????

Judi.  It was my pleasure.  Now you know what a jabber-box I am.  I know the employment report that is the subject of this "tongue in cheek" post is meaningless in 95% of the country.

Larry.  Nonsense.  They'll be paid $5000 of yours and my tax money to hire temps.

Steven.  Seek and ye shall find.  They're under Joe Biden's bed.

Jim.  Seems to me that every time the stock market increases 100 pts. in a day, the government says we're in recovery. HUH!!

Doris.  No way is an employer with a brain going to take on a salaried employee today unless they are a union shop. 

Gary.  You rascal you. 

Richard.  Agreed.

Barbara.  See above.

Ed.  THERE WILL BE NO RECOVERY FROM THE RECESSION UNTIL AND UNLESS THE 20-25% OF HOME OWNERS WHO ARE BURDENED WITH NEGATIVE EQUITY ARE BACK ABOVE WATER.

Gabe.  See above.

Russell.  One factor for one month isn't going to save us.  We still have about 637 spendthrifts in DC.

Feb 27, 2010 07:14 AM #15
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Tammy Lankford,
Lane Realty Eatonton, GA Lake Sinclair, Milledgeville, 706-485-9668 - Eatonton, GA
Broker GA Lake Sinclair/Eatonton/Milledgeville

BAHAHAHAHA.  That's really my only response to the original post.

The recession sure as hell ain't over in my neck of the woods.

Feb 27, 2010 07:55 AM #16
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Lenn Harley
Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate - Leesburg, VA
Real Estate Broker - Virginia & Maryland

Tammy.  It isn't in mine either.

 

Feb 27, 2010 08:20 AM #17
Rainer
112,087
Cari Anderson
Danville, CA

Lenn - The numbers were o.k.. Growth for 2 consecutive quarters is good news.  They always say that unemployment is a lagging indicator.  I don't know...I hope we are pulling out but, I talk to a lot of folks who do not think we are near the end of this.  I am keeping my fingers crossed but my eyes open.  Real Estate pulled us into this recession and I am hoping it pulls us out.  Consumers can cut back on many things but they have to have a place to live. ~Doug

Feb 27, 2010 08:41 AM #18
Rainmaker
1,560,731
Carla Muss-Jacobs, RETIRED
RETIRED / State License is Inactive - Portland, OR

The numbers crunched are national, and like everything national, they do not accurately reflect the LOCAL levels.  The news could report on an explosive Birth-rates.  But I seriously doubt that in the "Snow Bird" retirement areas this would be accurate at all.  Nope, the end of April will be the turning point, and the consumer confidence levels play a big factor in what will happen.  I doubt consumer confidence is bouncing back anytime soon. 

Feb 27, 2010 05:47 PM #19
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