Market Comment - Week of March 1st, 2010
Mortgage bond prices rebounded last week pushing mortgage interest rates lower. The majority of the data came in bond friendly. Weaker than expected consumer confidence data Tuesday helped mortgage interest rates improve. The Treasury auctions showed decent foreign demand. The gross domestic product price deflator component showed a smaller price increase than expected while the consumer spending component also came in weaker than expected. Existing home sales fell a surprising 7.1%, considerably weaker than the expected 1% increase. Rates fell about 3/4 of a discount point for the week.
The employment report Friday morning will take center stage this week. Until then, look for the PCE inflation data to set the tone for the beginning of the week and the ADP employment report to set the tone for the mid portion of the week.
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Economic Factors |
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Economic Indicator |
Release Date Time |
Consensus Estimate |
Analysis |
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Personal Income and Outlays |
Monday, March 1, 2010 |
Income up 0.4%, Outlays up 0.4% |
Important. A measure of consumers' ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
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PCE Price Index |
Monday, March 1, 2010 |
Up 0.1% |
Important. An indication of inflationary pressures. Decreases may lead to lower rates. |
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Construction Spending |
Monday, March 1, 2010 |
Down 0.6% |
Low importance. An indication of economic strength. A significant decrease may lead to lower rates. |
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ISM Index |
Monday, March 1, 2010 |
58.0 |
Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. A large decline may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
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ADP Employment |
Wednesday, March 3, 2010 |
-15k |
Important. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates. |
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Fed "Beige Book" |
Wednesday, March 3, 2010 |
None |
Important. This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates. |
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Revised Q4 Productivity |
Thursday, March 4, 2010 |
Up 6.2% |
Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
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Employment |
Friday, March 5, 2010 |
Unemp. @ 9.8%, Payrolls -25k |
Very important. An increase in unemployment or a large decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates. |
Fundamental Week
The abundance of fundamental data this week provides a good opportunity for mortgages to improve. If the data shows weakness in the economy with little or no inflationary pressures then it is possible for mortgage bonds to rally resulting in mortgage interest rate decreases. However, if the data shows that the economy is rebounding or any significant signs of inflation, mortgage bonds may fall pushing mortgage interest rates higher.
Mortgage interest rates remain favorable. Now is a great time to avoid the uncertainty surrounding continued market volatility.
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