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The Global Ticking Time Bomb: Government Debt

By
Services for Real Estate Pros with Zillow

This paper scared me very badly, so as a form of therapy I figured I’d share it with you. Misery loves company, after all.

Governments around the world are already drowning in debt, and many countries face a high certainty of debt levels that will exceed their GDP (100 in the graphs below means that GDP = the debt amount). Think about that for a second, and imagine it for your own household. GDP is the amount of all goods and services produced in the total economy – it’s sort of like your total personal income in a year. Now imagine if you make $100,000 a year and you owe $450,000 (note that the USA graph says 450 in 2040 which means the US government will owe 4.5x our total GDP by that year). How could you ever get out from under that debt burden? You can’t. And look at how high the interest payments on that debt will be – 25% of GDP by 2040. (Imagine you personally had a 5% interest rate on your $450,000 in debt – that would mean $22,500 in annual interest expense, or 22.5% of your pre-tax income. At least governments don’t have to pay taxes on their own revenue!)

In addition, unstoppable demographic trends (namely the ageing of the population in most industrialized countries) present a future in which we face a runaway train of additional government expenses.

Further exacerbating the debt crisis, the evidence shows that EVENTUALLY having more debt leads to high interest rates (for the government as well as for businesses and individuals), which only makes matter worse.

And basically the only way out of this global crisis is for governments to inflate their way out of the debt loads by printing money to pay down the debt (and to lower the real amount of the debt). Inflation is a pernicious tax on everyone, as it erodes the value of individuals’ savings and incomes. Inflation is very very bad. Basically, this paper says that the whole world is screwed. Uplifting.

 

 

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Comments(132)

Anonymous
Rich Watson
When Obama took over, this country was on the verge of economic collapse. Even Warren Buffet was nervous about our economic situation. If Obama hadn't put together the large stimulus bill,the entire global financial system would have collapsed. I'm with Warren, Obama did what needed to be done. What people seem to forget is America has always found a way to beat it's naysayers.
Mar 07, 2010 12:36 AM
#115
Joetta Fort
The DiGiorgio Group - Arvada, CO
Independent Broker, Homes Denver to Boulder

"The government needs to increase spending and put people to work" (from comments above) ... ?!?  Seriously?!?!  Everyone I know who 'can't find a job' is on unemployment, as soon as their unemployment runs out ... voila! ... they CAN find a job!  I know the situation is worse in some states and I don't want to belittle the problems there. My point is simply, most people will not get off their butt and take care of themselves if someone else is willing to do it for them.

Mar 07, 2010 01:34 AM
J. Philip Faranda
Howard Hanna Rand Realty - Yorktown Heights, NY
Associate Broker / Office Manager

You can't deficit spend your way to prosperity. I wish the administration would realize this. During the election, all the promises sounded great but the question was asked "how will we pay for it?" O's glib answer was to reverse Bush's policies. What spending policy has he reversed? We remain at war. Government meddles in commerce more than ever. Entitlements expand. It is all smoke and mirrors. 

Mar 07, 2010 02:32 AM
Dennis Erickson
Berkshire Hathaway Home Services Montana Properties - Bozeman, MT
My Best..., Always!

Hey!  This is good stuff!  Complacent Americans are getting a little po'd!  Yeah, baby!

I was 19 years old. Knew it all. One day, I made the mistake of asking my mother, who had her foot crushed by a machine that stamped out airplane parts during WWII (no safety guards, go figure) why she didn't just sue the government for negligence and make a million bucks?  My bad.  She turned to me, jabbed me in the chest with her finger, and in the only moment I remember seeing her truly angry shouted at me:  "WE WERE AT WAR!"   I can't think of that moment without getting a little choked up  That was all that was ever said, but it spoke volumes.  Faced with a crisis, that generation united in an unparalleled way and went to war against a common enemy.  They put aside their differences, religious, political, racial and defended one another's freedom.  You and I need to do the same thing.  I'm no longer a Republican or a Democrat.  I'm an American who understands there is a real threat to our way of life and it's alive and well in the halls of Congress and in the White House itself.  No blame going forward, just the realization we must act NOW. 

To my fellow posters:  #51 Susan, you offer solutions!  You go girl!  I'm listening

Tony #63, You sir, are correct.    Suddendeath #81  I feel your fire, you need to run again.  Now.

WE ARE AT WAR!  Remove the incumbents, replace them with vetted candidates who will listen to the will of the people.  Start now identifying the new leaders of our country.  Find better ways to communicate with our representatives than the lame "letter to your senator" that never gets read by the senator.  How about our own electronic polling place where instead of waiting for the Zagby folks or other professional and biased polling services to ask us we can generate and self-publish our dissatisfaction? 

This is good stuff.

Mar 07, 2010 03:09 AM
Anonymous
Brad weber
John Rakoci, You read Mauldin too? Venter used technologies that both public and private sources produced. Brad Weber
Mar 07, 2010 05:20 AM
#119
Jean-Paul Peron
The Outer Banks Real Estate Copmpany - Corolla, NC
Carova Beach - Living & Working in 4-Wheel Drive

I wonder what would happen if we replaced some of our politicians with businessmen who have actual experience at running a company for profit?

Mar 07, 2010 07:27 AM
Dan Hartman
Province Mortgage Associates - NMLS #2861 - Providence, RI

Spencer,

Maybe I'm missing something here, but it doesn't appear that the authors' data matches reality. For example, commonly discussed figures suggest that the federal government of the US owes about $14 Trillion, and has a GDP of about $50 trillion, leading to debt equivalent to 28% of GDP. the authors suggest this figure is closer to 92%. I suspect they may have an ulterior motive in their research, and that they may be going beyond commonly acepted definitions of government debt.

I've seen this type of "research" before from investigators who have a secondary agenda, like promoting gold sales.

Dan

Mar 07, 2010 12:11 PM
Lane Bailey
Century 21 Results Realty - Suwanee, GA
Realtor & Car Guy

Dan...  Where are your numbers coming from? Here is the public data from the World Bank.  US GDP is at $14.2T for 2008...  This is a Google link

If you don't like that one, there is always the US Gov't figures...  On 2/26/10 there released this:

Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 6.3 percent, or $219.6 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $14,461.7 billion. In the third quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 2.6 percent, or $90.9 billion.

Mar 07, 2010 12:27 PM
Sarah Pearce
eXp Realty LLC - Wiscasset, ME

I am with t he poster that only left a moniker "suddendeath"...this problem is older than a lot of us and it will take that long to fix it. If there is anyone left that has learned history. We allowed our manufacturing to leave the country. It was only a matter of time until we arrived here.

Mar 07, 2010 01:15 PM
Carl Schumacher
CIDM Real Estate - Grand Rapids, MI

"I am tired of working to support people that feel they are entitled to being taken care of!"

Here we go again.

Here's mine:

I'm tired of hearing the opinions of the ignorant.

I wonder; Are you tired of working to support the tax benefits of billionaires who pay about a 2/3rd's less in income taxes in relation to their income then you do?

Are you tired of working to support your government, federal, state, & local, shoveling billions upon billions of your tax dollars in welfare to corporations who are shipping the jobs of your clients overseas?

Are you tired of your neighbors children being killed so you can put gas in your car for a third of the cost that the rest of the industrialized world pays?

Are you tired of tripping over the homeless and downtrodden in the wealthiest most powerful nation ever to exist because your government insists on spending 2/3rd's of the tax money you send them each year on weapons development, military equipment, and personal?

Feel any safer?

It never ceases to amaze me how the otherwise literate cannot see the forest for the trees when it comes to economics.

The time for being tired is long since passed. If you had been tired back in 2000 when you voted for 8 years of irresponsibility, TWICE, we wouldn't be in the mess we're in today.

But instead of accepting responsibility for your actions and placing the blame on the institutions enslaving all of us, you instead choose to turn to the weakest among us and continue to beat them in the hope they will just die and go away.

Nice Christen values there. Hope you made a tidy sum during the bubble because you're about to learn what the real value of it is.

Keep voting against yourself and then bitching about it. Makes for great blog comments . . .

Carl S

Mar 07, 2010 02:19 PM
Carl Schumacher
CIDM Real Estate - Grand Rapids, MI

Whoa even more nonsense:

"PS;  I ran for US Congress in 1996 on all these issues....where the hell were YOU then????"

Listening to people who actually know what they're talking about?

Carl S

Mar 07, 2010 02:37 PM
Martin Dorgan
Prudential Indiana Realty - Columbus, IN
Excellent Comments by All, But I'd like to suggest that everyone sees the big picture, and suggest how to fix it, based off that the "big picture. But what everyone is apparently missing is the smaller picture - "Real Estate is Local". I may have missed a couple comments, but I only remember reading two that covered the subject from a local perspective, and they were generalizations. Yes it is our government, our politicians that are failing "We The People", but it is "We The People" the Realtors, Brokers, Agents, Mortgage Brokers & Advisors, that are missing the point. "Quit encouraging buyers to over spend!!!!' "Quit suggesting buyers should buy as much house as they can get" "Quit offering 100% financing". "Quit, utilizing government financed 100% loans!!!!". Not doing so, only perpetuates the current scenario! And based off of what we read here, in the news and on radio and TV, the current system is failing, leading to higher debt both by the government and personally. Consequently we don't improve the over all scenario. It only adds fire to the already burning house of cards. How about we try counselling buyers to improve their credit scores. How about showing them the benefits of utilizing a a book keeping system, of keeping a budget. How about taking a look at their debt to income ratio and suggesting they buy "Well Within Their Means" Which means they purchase a home 20% or better, below the current market value for the area, with fewer amenities that they can still enjoy. Suggest to them based off the current economic scenario it would be wise to consider spending less, and saving more, and not having huge expectations would be smarter, wiser, and would likely be far more beneficial in the long run. Stop! The Free For All, Try to ,not only be a good Realtor, but to be "their pseudo parent and give them the advice that will benefit them in this precarious position we are in economically.
Mar 08, 2010 12:07 AM
Carl Schumacher
CIDM Real Estate - Grand Rapids, MI

Martin:

Nice comment. That's what we used to do 25 years ago when you needed 20% down to purchase a home. Problem is I don't get paid to be a credit counselor. Many of the people I counseled at that time rewarded me for my efforts by purchasing their home through another agent when the time came. So much for "the more you give the more you receive" philosophy.

In closing I have 7 words for you:

"The Fish Stinks From The Head Down."

I think I'll make that my campaign slogan if I ever run for office . . .

Carl S

Mar 08, 2010 08:07 AM
Carl Schumacher
CIDM Real Estate - Grand Rapids, MI

Martin:

Nice comment. That's what we used to do 25 years ago when you needed 20% down to purchase a home. Problem is I don't get paid to be a credit counselor. Many of the people I counseled at that time rewarded me for my efforts by purchasing their home through another agent when the time came. So much for "the more you give the more you receive" philosophy.

In closing I have 7 words for you:

"The Fish Stinks From The Head Down."

I think I'll make that my campaign slogan if I ever run for office . . .

Carl S

Mar 08, 2010 08:39 AM
Jennifer Palmer
Integrity Mortgage Group - Escondido, CA

I've been to Portugal and I loved it, and they seem to be the lowest as far as debt by 2040.

Maybe I should move there!!!

Mar 08, 2010 01:24 PM
Carl Schumacher
CIDM Real Estate - Grand Rapids, MI

Australia is another area of the world that hasn't seen much effect from the global melt down. Lessons to be learned perhaps . . .

Mar 08, 2010 11:54 PM
Spencer Rascoff
Zillow - Seattle, WA

Wow wow wow, thank you all for the incredible comments.

There was an excellent Charlie Rose show the other day about this topic. If you're interested, here's the link.

Mar 15, 2010 10:54 AM
Spencer Rascoff
Zillow - Seattle, WA

Here's a scary article from this morning's NY Times...

 

"The gold-plated credit rating of the United States — an article of faith across America and, indeed, around the world — may be at risk in coming years as the nation copes with its growing debts. 

That sobering assessment, issued Monday by Moody’s Investors Service, provided a reminder that even Aaa-rated United States Treasury bonds, supposedly the safest of safe investments, could be downgraded one day if Washington failed to manage the federal debt. Moody’s said the United States and other major Western nations, particularly Britain, have moved “substantially” closer to losing their gilt-edged ratings. The ratings are “stable,” but “their ‘distance-to-downgrade’ has in all cases substantially diminished,” the credit ratings agency said."

Mar 16, 2010 06:31 AM
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