Where's the "Shadow Inventory" for Sonoma County,California? Does it Really Exist?

Real Estate Agent with The Kelly-Norman Team Keller Williams RE

The alledged and much ballyhooed "Shadow Inventory" has not surfaced here in Sonoma County, California. WHY? I recently interviewed Ivan Choi, current President of REOMAC, former Sr. VP for REO sales at Bank of American and now with Prospect Mortgage, Ivan stated we should be in a market with thousands of REO properties flooding our price points but we are NOT! Why--"Government Intervention" Ivan states.

  He related how our real estate market, in its greatest decline since the "great depression", has massive government intervention with many attempts to halt this huge slide of home owners into foreclosure. The HAMP program and now the new HAFA program taking effect April 5th, are examples of why the great "shadow inventory" is NOT flooding the marketplace. Though modifications are hardly "sticky" with 60-70% default rates, lenders are allowing great latitude in foreclosing on these home owners and are allowing forbearance for thousands more.

If you wish to hear Ivan's complete interview which was conducted on the "Real Estate Hour", Sundays, 9 to 10am, PST, locally at 1350AM,KSRO or via the web at www.KSRO.com, please go to www.TheRealEstateHourBlog.com and click on the old fashioned radio icon in the upper left hand corner. Ivan's talk was done March 6th and runs for an hour. Other noteworthy observations by Ivan, the ending of the Federal Tax Credits and the Fed not buying Mortgage Backed Securities all have him a bit scared!! But go to the blog and listen in. I'm sure you'll find it very revealing.


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Geoff ONeill
John L. Scott Medford - Medford, OR

Have you met anyone who had recieved a successful (permanant) modification?

Mar 30, 2010 04:58 PM #1
Julie A. Black
KAUAI DREAMS REALTY Kauai Real Property Specialist - Kapaa, HI
CLHMS, CRS, GRI, Realtor, Broker

We have been wondering for almost a year now about this shadow inventory. It hasn't come to Kauai either.

Mar 30, 2010 05:00 PM #2
Doug Anderson
Tucker Associates Real Estate Services - Danville, CA
Bay Area Real Estate Views

Michael - Thanks for the heads up.  We have been talking about the shadow inventory for a long time and it just has not surfaced.  I think we will be in for an upswing of REO's over the next 12-18 months if the economy, especially in CA, does not turn.  There are lots of homeowners under stress and IMHO the only thing that will keep them in their homes is a cramdown of principal balances. ~ Doug

Mar 30, 2010 05:00 PM #3
Kirsten Lindquist
Pacific Union International - Sonoma, CA
Realtor - Sonoma Wine Country

So this means the government's programs are, in effect, staving off a full blown depression?  Hmmm.....interested to hear the thoughts of some on this.

Mar 30, 2010 05:02 PM #4
Elite Home Sales Team
Elite Home Sales Team OC - Corona del Mar, CA
A Tenacious and Skilled Real Estate Team

No shadow inventory down here either.  As a mater of fact the short sales and REOs are decreasing.

Mar 30, 2010 05:45 PM #5
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Michael Kelly

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