MARKET STUDY FOR NEW HOUSING STARTS IN FLAGSTAFF AZ

By
Real Estate Agent with Russ Lyon | Sotheby's International Realty Flagstaff AZ

Hi All: Noted below is a study provided by our local builders and authorities. This analysis seems to indicated that the market bottom has been reached in new constrtuction.  I hope you find this analysis to be of value.  Please don't heistate to contact me with questions.

FLAGSTAFF CITY AND SURROUNDING AREA STUDY OF NEW  PROJECTS THROUGH 2010-2022 (SFR/MFR)        
PROJECTS STARTING IN 2005                    
                         
AZNORTH PROJECTS: PRICE RANGE DESCRIPTION TOTAL UNITS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 TOTALS
RIO HOMES (City) Final Phase only 170K-495K SFR/TWN 14     4 10     14
MAJESTIC VIEW I   800K+ SFR 15   1 1 1 1 1 5
MAJESTIC VIEW RANCH 900K+ SFR 9   1 1 1 1 1 5
Butler Condo/Comm/Apts 100K-775K MIXED/CONDOS 150     75 75     150
SWITZER CANYON VILLAGE (City) 125K-925K CONDOS 96   96         96
AZNORTH DOWNTOWN 650K-925K MIXED  16   4 4 4 4   16
TRAILS END (City)   290K-565K MIXED  206       20 20 20 60
FOREST SERVICE TRADE 375K-750K MIXED 300           30 30
NEW PROJECTS       ?   ? MIXED ?             0
    TOTAL   5% 806 0 102 85 111 26 52 376
                         
COMPETITIVE PROJECTS:                    
CITY:                        
INFILL (50 OR LESS LOT SUB) 375K+ SFR/TWN 950 50 75 75 75 150 150 575
CANYON DEL RIO   325K-800K MIXED 1000         25 25 50
PONDEROSA TRAILS (REMAINING) 375K-850K SFR/TWN 50   15 15 5 0 0 35
PINE CANYON COUNTRY CLUB 975K+ MIXED (700 UNT) 500 3 10 10 10 10 10 53
AGASSIG ESTATES   900K+ 395k-480k lot SFR 38       2 2 2 6
PINE KNOLLS Remaining 350k+ TWN 40       10 10 20 40
PINNACLE PINES   395k+ TWN 207   5 15 25 0 0 45
FOREST SPRINGS 4th st Remaining 385k+ TWN 100   5 5 5 25 25 65
PRESIDIO IN THE PINES I 225K-500K MIXED 740   15 15 15 15 15 75
PRESIDIO IN THE PINES II 385k+ MIXED 1000       50 50 50 150
CLEARCREEK Remaining 325k+ TWN/CONDO/Apt 300 100 25 25 25 25 25 225
ELDEN ESTATES Remaining     345k+ SFR/TWN 50   25 5 5 5 5 45
MCMILLAN MESA VILLAGE (112ac)     380k+ MIXED 250         20 20 40
RAILROAD SPRINGS     335k+ TWN/MODULAR 45   5 5 5 5 5 25
FAIRWAY AT FLAG RANCH (City) 500K-950K MIXED 200       25 50 50 125
ASPEN PARK "SAWMILL PROJECT" 350k+ MIXED 300     10 12 12 12 46
NEW DEVELOP/MALL HOUSING  ? ? MIXED 150       10 10 10 30
APARTMENTS/Condo Conv.       ? 900+MO. MF 300 0 0 50 50 25 25 150
    TOTALS     6220 153 180 230 329 439 449 1780
COUNTY:                        
INFILL (50 OR LESS LOT SUB) 450k+ MIXED 1700 30 50 50 10 10 10 160
A-1 MOUNT/FLAGSTAFF MEADOWS 325k+ TWN/SF 336 0 10 10 10 10 10 50
FLAGSTAFF RANCH    850k+ TWN/SF 470 12 20 40 40 40 40 192
NEW DEVELOPMENTS/TWIN ARROWS ? ? SF 750 0 0 0 20 20 20 60
APARTMENTS   ?   900+MO. MF               0
    TOTALS     3256 42 80 100 80 80 80 462
                         
  TOTAL UNITS / BUILT HOUSING UNITS   10282 195 362 415 520 545 581 2618
  HOUSING NEEDS (Based on 3% growth backed off for downturnin market) 245 500 515 530 546 563  
  SURPLUS/SHORTAGE (shortage due to labor force and approval process) -50 -188 -288 -298 -300 -282  
FLAGSTAFF CITY AND SURROUNDING AREA NEW  PROJECTS THROUGH 2021 (SFR/MFR)            
                         
CARRYOVER PROJECTS:                    
                         
AZNORTH CARRYOVER PROJECTS: PRICE RANGE DESCRIPTION CARRYOVER  2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 TOTALS
TRAILS END   325K-425K MIXED 146 30 30 30 26 0 0 116
FOREST SERVICE TRADE 450K+ MIXED 270 50 50 50 50 50 20 270
NEW PROJECTS   ? ?               0
                         
    TOTAL 792   416 80 80 80 76 50 20 386
COMP. CARRYOVER PROJECTS:                    
CITY:                        
INFILL ALL CARRYOVER 500K+ MIXED 4440 150 150 150 150 150 150 900
                         
COUNTY:                        
INFILL ALL CARRYOVER 500K+ MIXED 2794 50 50 50 50 50 50 300
                         
    TOTAL 7664   7650 280 280 280 276 250 220 1586
                         
NEW PROJECTS START                      
AFTER 2016:                      
AZNORTH PROJECTS: PRICE RANGE DESCRIPTION TOTAL UNITS 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 TOTALS
SECTION 20/OTHER STATE LAND  750+ MIXED 1900   50 150 150 150 150 650
NEW PROJECTS   ? MIXED ?             0
REDEVELOPMENT PROJECTS ? MIXED ?             0
AFFORDABLE HOUSING 200K-300K MIXED ?             0
    TOTAL 16% 2706 1900 0 50 150 150 150 150 650
COMPETITIVE PROJECTS:                    
CITY:                        
NEW (50 OR LESS)   500k+ SFR/TWN 200 30 30 30 30 30 30 180
VILLAGIO MONTANA/ SEC 30 STATE 400K+ MIXED 850 50 50 50 50 50 50 300
LONETREE/I-40 (314ac) "Juniper Point" 450+ MIXED 1500 100 100 100 100 100 100 600
REDEV-STATE LANDS INFILL-ECT 400K+ MIXED 1500 50 50 50 50 50 50 300
APARTMENTS   1100+MO. MF 600 100 100 100 100 100 100 600
    TOTALS     4650 330 330 330 330 330 330 1980
COUNTY:                        
NEW (50 OR LESS)   500k+ MIXED 100 10 10 10 10 10 10 60
SPLITS/SPLITS   500k+ SF 150 10 10 10 10 10 10 60
APARTMENTS   1100+MO. MF 60 10 10 10 10 10 10 60
    TOTALS     310 30 30 30 30 30 30 180
                         
  TOTAL UNITS / BUILT HOUSING UNITS   6860 640 690 790 786 760 730 4396
  HOUSING NEEDS       580 597 615 633 652 672  
  SURPLUS/SHORTAGE       -221 -128 47 199 307 365  
  TOTALS THROUGH 2016   10128 17142             7014
FLAGSTAFF CITY AND SURROUNDING AREA NEW  PROJECTS THROUGH 2027 (SFR/MFR)            
                         
CARRYOVER PROJECTS:                    
                         
AZNORTH CARRYOVER PROJECTS: PRICE RANGE DESCRIPTION CARRYOVER  2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 TOTALS
All Carryover   550+ MIXED 1280 100 100 100 100 100 100 600
                         
    TOTAL 1280   1280 100 100 100 100 100 100 600
CARRYOVER PROJECTS:                    
CITY:                        
INFILL ALL CARRYOVER 600K+ MIXED 6210 500 500 500 500 500 500 3000
                         
COUNTY:                        
INFILL ALL CARRYOVER 600K+ MIXED 2624 150 150 150 150 150 150 900
                         
    TOTAL 0   10114 750 750 750 750 750 750 4500
                         
NEW PROJECTS START                      
AFTER 2022:                      
AZNORTH PROJECTS: PRICE RANGE DESCRIPTION TOTAL UNITS 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 TOTALS
NEW PROJECTS?STATE LANDS ? MIXED ?             0
REDEVELOPMENT PROJECTS ? MIXED ?             0
AFFORDABLE HOUSING ? MIXED ?             0
    TOTAL 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COMPETITIVE PROJECTS:                    
CITY:                        
NEW & STATE LANDS   900k + MIXED 2500     100 100 100 100 400
REDEVELOPMENT/Other 600K+ MIXED 2500     100 100 100 100 400
APARTMENTS   ? MF ?             0
    TOTALS     5000 0 0 200 200 200 200 800
COUNTY:                        
NEW & STATE LANDS   900K+ MIXED ?             0
SPLITS/SPLITS   800K+ SF ?             0
    TOTALS     0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
                         
  TOTAL UNITS / BUILT HOUSING UNITS   5000 750 750 950 950 950 950 5300
  HOUSING NEEDS       692 713 734 756 779 802  
  SURPLUS/SHORTAGE       58 95 311 504 675 823  
  TOTALS THROUGH 2022             Balance: 9828 22142             12314
          10250              
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
FLAGSTAFF CITY AND SURROUNDING AREA NEW  PROJECTS THROUGH 2033 (SFR/MFR)            
                         
CARRYOVER PROJECTS:                    
                         
AZNORTH CARRYOVER PROJECTS: PRICE RANGE DESCRIPTION CARRYOVER  2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 TOTALS
Old Projects   850+ MIXED 680 100 100 100 100 100 150 650
                         
    TOTAL 680   680 100 100 100 100 100 150 650
CARRYOVER PROJECTS:                    
CITY:                        
INFILL ALL CARRYOVER 850+ MIXED 7410 800 800 800 800 800 800 4800
                         
COUNTY:                        
INFILL ALL CARRYOVER 850+ MIXED 1724 156 150 150 150 150 150 906
                         
    TOTAL 0   9814 1056 1050 1050 1050 1050 1100 6356
                         
NEW PROJECTS START                      
AFTER 2028:                      
AZNORTH PROJECTS: PRICE RANGE DESCRIPTION TOTAL UNITS 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 TOTALS
NEW PROJECTS   1,000,000+ MIXED ? 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
REDEVELOPMENT PROJECTS 1,000,000+ MIXED ?             0
AFFORDABLE HOUSING 1,000,000+ MIXED ?             0
    TOTAL 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COMPETITIVE PROJECTS:                    
CITY:                        
NEW & STATE LANDS   1,000,000+ MIXED ?     0 0 0 0 0
REDEVELOPMENT/Other 1,000,000+ MIXED ?     0 0 0 0 0
APARTMENTS   ? MF ?             0
    TOTALS     0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COUNTY:                        
NEW & STATE LANDS   1,000,000+ MIXED ?             0
SPLITS/SPLITS   1,000,000+ SF ?             0
    TOTALS     0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
                         
  TOTAL UNITS / BUILT HOUSING UNITS   0 1056 1050 1050 1050 1050 1100 6356
  HOUSING NEEDS       826 851 877 903 930 958  
  SURPLUS/SHORTAGE       230 428 602 749 868 1010  
  TOTALS THROUGH 2033             Balance: 3472 22142             18670
  EXSTING HOUSING UNITS   22,641 City 29780              
  TOTAL UNITS AT BUILDOUT     51922 YEAR AZ POP % / 2 # UNITS      
            2033 10,000,000 0.52% 25961 Assumes 50% second homes    
            11220            
            6190            
Note: This counts every last parcel to be built so we need to assume that 5% of the total units available will not be built (aprox 1000 to 1500 units)  
Note: If we assume that 50% of the housing units are second homes, above is the percentage of the state's population that would have ownership in Flagstaff. 
            17410            
            3802            
            21212            
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
                         
AZNORTH                      
                         
MARKET STUDY AND PROJECTIONS NOTES                
                         
                         
                         
NOTE:                        
                         
All projections are based on market study and map created and completed February 2005 by AZNORTH.          
All projections include information and data for Flagstaff city and county. (surrounding area within 15 miles of city center)(pop est City-62,000  County-18,000)
All projections are based on a 3% growth rate with a average household size of 2.8 persons.            
In this study we have counted all property. Note that a percentage of infill lots and ranch property will not be available in this growth period.     
All projections do include "all building" both single family and multiple family units including apartments.          
It is estimated that at the end of 2016 there will be around 10,000+ new and redeveloped units.            
Study suggests that Flagstaff will have a shortage of needed units because of the length of construction, planning, labor force and approval process of projects.
Carryover projects includes all past developments with units not built from 2005-2010 & 2011-2022 & 2023-2028          
Price range estimated to be the market value at time of sales.(3 % increase per year)              
Projections show that we will run out of private, known Forest service traded and known available state lands to be developed by 2023.       
Note that "Redev-State Lands Infill-Ect" include all other projects in the city with an estimate of number of units under the city development plan.     
Study suggests that we will be out of all private land in 2020 this assumes we will have developed section 20 and 30 of the state land by 2020.    
Jobs 56,000 Coconino County, 2.4% per year new jobs, 2006 Wage 38,126 year,               
New units needed 2007-2022 16,200 units with 200-250 per year for second homes              
Renters v Owners 50%/50%                    
                         
AZNORTH NOTES:                      
                         
AZNORTH has land and projects as of February 2005 of 850+ lots. (averages 50 to 100+ units per year through 2016 to 2023)        
AZNORTH projections include taking Section 20 (state land) to bid and not owning the entire property, we intend to develop only part of the 1900 units.   
AZNORTH intends to be a bidder on section 26 & 30 State Land and this projection does not include any of that inventory.        
AZNORTH plans to supply approximately 10% to 20% of all developments as affordable lots to be made available to the city of Flagstaff for their land trust deed program. 
AZNORTH has a Forest service trade and a rezoning to do on two projects that may effect the total projections of market share.       

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