Home > Blogs > Gregg & Debbie Munson > Gregg & Debbie Munson's (lifeisgreat) Blog

MARKET STUDY FOR NEW HOUSING STARTS IN FLAGSTAFF AZ

By Gregg & Debbie Munson

Real Estate Agent with Russ Lyon | Sotheby's International Realty Flagstaff AZ

April 07, 2010 03:12 PM

Hi All: Noted below is a study provided by our local builders and authorities. This analysis seems to indicated that the market bottom has been reached in new constrtuction. I hope you find this analysis to be of value. Please don't heistate to contact me with questions.

FLAGSTAFF CITY AND SURROUNDING AREA STUDY OF NEW PROJECTS THROUGH 2010-2022 (SFR/MFR)
PROJECTS STARTING IN 2005

AZNORTH PROJECTS:	PRICE RANGE	DESCRIPTION	TOTAL UNITS	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	TOTALS
RIO HOMES (City) Final Phase only	170K-495K	SFR/TWN	14			4	10			14
MAJESTIC VIEW I		800K+	SFR	15		1	1	1	1	1	5
MAJESTIC VIEW RANCH	900K+	SFR	9		1	1	1	1	1	5
Butler Condo/Comm/Apts	100K-775K	MIXED/CONDOS	150			75	75			150
SWITZER CANYON VILLAGE (City)	125K-925K	CONDOS	96		96					96
AZNORTH DOWNTOWN	650K-925K	MIXED	16		4	4	4	4		16
TRAILS END (City)		290K-565K	MIXED	206				20	20	20	60
FOREST SERVICE TRADE	375K-750K	MIXED	300						30	30
NEW PROJECTS ?		?	MIXED	?							0
		TOTAL		5%	806	0	102	85	111	26	52	376

COMPETITIVE PROJECTS:
CITY:
INFILL	(50 OR LESS LOT SUB)	375K+	SFR/TWN	950	50	75	75	75	150	150	575
CANYON DEL RIO		325K-800K	MIXED	1000					25	25	50
PONDEROSA TRAILS (REMAINING)	375K-850K	SFR/TWN	50		15	15	5	0	0	35
PINE CANYON COUNTRY CLUB	975K+	MIXED (700 UNT)	500	3	10	10	10	10	10	53
AGASSIG ESTATES		900K+ 395k-480k lot	SFR	38				2	2	2	6
PINE KNOLLS Remaining	350k+	TWN	40				10	10	20	40
PINNACLE PINES		395k+	TWN	207		5	15	25	0	0	45
FOREST SPRINGS 4th st Remaining	385k+	TWN	100		5	5	5	25	25	65
PRESIDIO IN THE PINES I	225K-500K	MIXED	740		15	15	15	15	15	75
PRESIDIO IN THE PINES II	385k+	MIXED	1000				50	50	50	150
CLEARCREEK Remaining	325k+	TWN/CONDO/Apt	300	100	25	25	25	25	25	225
ELDEN ESTATES Remaining			345k+	SFR/TWN	50		25	5	5	5	5	45
MCMILLAN MESA VILLAGE (112ac)			380k+	MIXED	250					20	20	40
RAILROAD SPRINGS			335k+	TWN/MODULAR	45		5	5	5	5	5	25
FAIRWAY AT FLAG RANCH (City)	500K-950K	MIXED	200				25	50	50	125
ASPEN PARK "SAWMILL PROJECT"	350k+	MIXED	300			10	12	12	12	46
NEW DEVELOP/MALL HOUSING ?	?	MIXED	150				10	10	10	30
APARTMENTS/Condo Conv. ?	900+MO.	MF	300	0	0	50	50	25	25	150
		TOTALS			6220	153	180	230	329	439	449	1780
COUNTY:
INFILL	(50 OR LESS LOT SUB)	450k+	MIXED	1700	30	50	50	10	10	10	160
A-1 MOUNT/FLAGSTAFF MEADOWS	325k+	TWN/SF	336	0	10	10	10	10	10	50
FLAGSTAFF RANCH		850k+	TWN/SF	470	12	20	40	40	40	40	192
NEW DEVELOPMENTS/TWIN ARROWS ?	?	SF	750	0	0	0	20	20	20	60
APARTMENTS ?		900+MO.	MF								0
		TOTALS			3256	42	80	100	80	80	80	462

	TOTAL UNITS / BUILT HOUSING UNITS		10282	195	362	415	520	545	581	2618
	HOUSING NEEDS (Based on 3% growth backed off for downturnin market)	245	500	515	530	546	563
	SURPLUS/SHORTAGE (shortage due to labor force and approval process)	-50	-188	-288	-298	-300	-282
FLAGSTAFF CITY AND SURROUNDING AREA NEW PROJECTS THROUGH 2021 (SFR/MFR)

CARRYOVER PROJECTS:

AZNORTH CARRYOVER PROJECTS:	PRICE RANGE	DESCRIPTION	CARRYOVER	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	TOTALS
TRAILS END		325K-425K	MIXED	146	30	30	30	26	0	0	116
FOREST SERVICE TRADE	450K+	MIXED	270	50	50	50	50	50	20	270
NEW PROJECTS		?	?								0

		TOTAL	792		416	80	80	80	76	50	20	386
COMP. CARRYOVER PROJECTS:
CITY:
INFILL	ALL CARRYOVER	500K+	MIXED	4440	150	150	150	150	150	150	900

COUNTY:
INFILL	ALL CARRYOVER	500K+	MIXED	2794	50	50	50	50	50	50	300

		TOTAL	7664		7650	280	280	280	276	250	220	1586

NEW PROJECTS START
AFTER 2016:
AZNORTH PROJECTS:	PRICE RANGE	DESCRIPTION	TOTAL UNITS	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	TOTALS
SECTION 20/OTHER STATE LAND	750+	MIXED	1900		50	150	150	150	150	650
NEW PROJECTS		?	MIXED	?							0
REDEVELOPMENT PROJECTS	?	MIXED	?							0
AFFORDABLE HOUSING	200K-300K	MIXED	?							0
		TOTAL	16%	2706	1900	0	50	150	150	150	150	650
COMPETITIVE PROJECTS:
CITY:
NEW (50 OR LESS)		500k+	SFR/TWN	200	30	30	30	30	30	30	180
VILLAGIO MONTANA/ SEC 30 STATE	400K+	MIXED	850	50	50	50	50	50	50	300
LONETREE/I-40 (314ac) "Juniper Point"	450+	MIXED	1500	100	100	100	100	100	100	600
REDEV-STATE LANDS INFILL-ECT	400K+	MIXED	1500	50	50	50	50	50	50	300
APARTMENTS		1100+MO.	MF	600	100	100	100	100	100	100	600
		TOTALS			4650	330	330	330	330	330	330	1980
COUNTY:
NEW (50 OR LESS)		500k+	MIXED	100	10	10	10	10	10	10	60
SPLITS/SPLITS		500k+	SF	150	10	10	10	10	10	10	60
APARTMENTS		1100+MO.	MF	60	10	10	10	10	10	10	60
		TOTALS			310	30	30	30	30	30	30	180

	TOTAL UNITS / BUILT HOUSING UNITS		6860	640	690	790	786	760	730	4396
	HOUSING NEEDS				580	597	615	633	652	672
	SURPLUS/SHORTAGE				-221	-128	47	199	307	365
	TOTALS THROUGH 2016		10128	17142							7014
FLAGSTAFF CITY AND SURROUNDING AREA NEW PROJECTS THROUGH 2027 (SFR/MFR)

CARRYOVER PROJECTS:

AZNORTH CARRYOVER PROJECTS:	PRICE RANGE	DESCRIPTION	CARRYOVER	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	TOTALS
All Carryover		550+	MIXED	1280	100	100	100	100	100	100	600

		TOTAL	1280		1280	100	100	100	100	100	100	600
CARRYOVER PROJECTS:
CITY:
INFILL	ALL CARRYOVER	600K+	MIXED	6210	500	500	500	500	500	500	3000

COUNTY:
INFILL	ALL CARRYOVER	600K+	MIXED	2624	150	150	150	150	150	150	900

		TOTAL	0		10114	750	750	750	750	750	750	4500

NEW PROJECTS START
AFTER 2022:
AZNORTH PROJECTS:	PRICE RANGE	DESCRIPTION	TOTAL UNITS	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	TOTALS
NEW PROJECTS?STATE LANDS	?	MIXED	?							0
REDEVELOPMENT PROJECTS	?	MIXED	?							0
AFFORDABLE HOUSING	?	MIXED	?							0
		TOTAL	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
COMPETITIVE PROJECTS:
CITY:
NEW & STATE LANDS		900k +	MIXED	2500			100	100	100	100	400
REDEVELOPMENT/Other	600K+	MIXED	2500			100	100	100	100	400
APARTMENTS		?	MF	?							0
		TOTALS			5000	0	0	200	200	200	200	800
COUNTY:
NEW & STATE LANDS		900K+	MIXED	?							0
SPLITS/SPLITS		800K+	SF	?							0
		TOTALS			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

	TOTAL UNITS / BUILT HOUSING UNITS		5000	750	750	950	950	950	950	5300
	HOUSING NEEDS				692	713	734	756	779	802
	SURPLUS/SHORTAGE				58	95	311	504	675	823
	TOTALS THROUGH 2022 Balance:	9828	22142							12314
					10250













FLAGSTAFF CITY AND SURROUNDING AREA NEW PROJECTS THROUGH 2033 (SFR/MFR)

CARRYOVER PROJECTS:

AZNORTH CARRYOVER PROJECTS:	PRICE RANGE	DESCRIPTION	CARRYOVER	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	TOTALS
Old Projects		850+	MIXED	680	100	100	100	100	100	150	650

		TOTAL	680		680	100	100	100	100	100	150	650
CARRYOVER PROJECTS:
CITY:
INFILL	ALL CARRYOVER	850+	MIXED	7410	800	800	800	800	800	800	4800

COUNTY:
INFILL	ALL CARRYOVER	850+	MIXED	1724	156	150	150	150	150	150	906

		TOTAL	0		9814	1056	1050	1050	1050	1050	1100	6356

NEW PROJECTS START
AFTER 2028:
AZNORTH PROJECTS:	PRICE RANGE	DESCRIPTION	TOTAL UNITS	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	TOTALS
NEW PROJECTS		1,000,000+	MIXED	?	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
REDEVELOPMENT PROJECTS	1,000,000+	MIXED	?							0
AFFORDABLE HOUSING	1,000,000+	MIXED	?							0
		TOTAL	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
COMPETITIVE PROJECTS:
CITY:
NEW & STATE LANDS		1,000,000+	MIXED	?			0	0	0	0	0
REDEVELOPMENT/Other	1,000,000+	MIXED	?			0	0	0	0	0
APARTMENTS		?	MF	?							0
		TOTALS			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
COUNTY:
NEW & STATE LANDS		1,000,000+	MIXED	?							0
SPLITS/SPLITS		1,000,000+	SF	?							0
		TOTALS			0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

	TOTAL UNITS / BUILT HOUSING UNITS		0	1056	1050	1050	1050	1050	1100	6356
	HOUSING NEEDS				826	851	877	903	930	958
	SURPLUS/SHORTAGE				230	428	602	749	868	1010
	TOTALS THROUGH 2033 Balance:	3472	22142							18670
	EXSTING HOUSING UNITS		22,641 City	29780
	TOTAL UNITS AT BUILDOUT			51922	YEAR	AZ POP	% / 2	# UNITS
						2033	10,000,000	0.52%	25961	Assumes 50% second homes
						11220
						6190
Note: This counts every last parcel to be built so we need to assume that 5% of the total units available will not be built (aprox 1000 to 1500 units)
Note: If we assume that 50% of the housing units are second homes, above is the percentage of the state's population that would have ownership in Flagstaff.
						17410
						3802
						21212






AZNORTH

MARKET STUDY AND PROJECTIONS NOTES



NOTE:

All projections are based on market study and map created and completed February 2005 by AZNORTH.
All projections include information and data for Flagstaff city and county. (surrounding area within 15 miles of city center)(pop est City-62,000 County-18,000)
All projections are based on a 3% growth rate with a average household size of 2.8 persons.
In this study we have counted all property. Note that a percentage of infill lots and ranch property will not be available in this growth period.
All projections do include "all building" both single family and multiple family units including apartments.
It is estimated that at the end of 2016 there will be around 10,000+ new and redeveloped units.
Study suggests that Flagstaff will have a shortage of needed units because of the length of construction, planning, labor force and approval process of projects.
Carryover projects includes all past developments with units not built from 2005-2010 & 2011-2022 & 2023-2028
Price range estimated to be the market value at time of sales.(3 % increase per year)
Projections show that we will run out of private, known Forest service traded and known available state lands to be developed by 2023.
Note that "Redev-State Lands Infill-Ect" include all other projects in the city with an estimate of number of units under the city development plan.
Study suggests that we will be out of all private land in 2020 this assumes we will have developed section 20 and 30 of the state land by 2020.
Jobs 56,000 Coconino County, 2.4% per year new jobs, 2006 Wage 38,126 year,
New units needed 2007-2022 16,200 units with 200-250 per year for second homes
Renters v Owners 50%/50%

AZNORTH NOTES:

AZNORTH has land and projects as of February 2005 of 850+ lots. (averages 50 to 100+ units per year through 2016 to 2023)
AZNORTH projections include taking Section 20 (state land) to bid and not owning the entire property, we intend to develop only part of the 1900 units.
AZNORTH intends to be a bidder on section 26 & 30 State Land and this projection does not include any of that inventory.
AZNORTH plans to supply approximately 10% to 20% of all developments as affordable lots to be made available to the city of Flagstaff for their land trust deed program.
AZNORTH has a Forest service trade and a rezoning to do on two projects that may effect the total projections of market share.

Re-Blog

MARKET STUDY FOR NEW HOUSING STARTS IN FLAGSTAFF AZ

Comments(0)

Gregg & Debbie Munson

Recent Posts