- Foreclosure/Short Sale Listings (4/15/2010): Total Listings 9302; Short Sales: 4323, 46% of all listings; Bank Owned Listings: 1348, 15% of all listings. Short sale and REO listings consume 61% of total listings
- New Home Sales (March 2010, units sold): 427 Year Change -8.4% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
- New Home Sales (March 2010, median price): $211,028 Year Change -7.5% (excl condo conversions, highrises)
- Existing Home Sales (March 2010, units sold): 3833 Year Change +25.1%
- Existing Home Sales (March 2010, median price): $124,500 Year Change: -12.3%
- New Home Permits (March 2010): 730 Year Change +213.3%
- Rental Rate (MLS Monthly Average February 2010): $1732/month
My analysis: Distressed listings (foreclosures and short sales) are 61% of total listings. This figure is dropping nicely HOWEVER REO is emerging as a new life form (investor trustee sale purchase flips.) Credit markets must be watched as underwriting guidelines continue to tighten. Condos are barely financeable. Resale sold units and pendings remain impressive. New Home Sales & Permits are steadily increasing as inventory in the Las Vegas Valley remains tight. The rental market is softening due to all the investor/first time buyer combination of activity. This adds more supply and creates less demand.
New Residents/Employment Conditions:
- New Residents (March 2010): 3813, Year Change -19.0%
- Total Employment (March 2010): 794,900 Year Change -5.7%
- Unemployment Rate (March 2010) 13.8%, Year Change +30.2%
My analysis: The tourism, gaming and convention numbers need to improve before these numbers improve. New Resident Count will continue to plummet if no new jobs are created. Economists are hoping that City Center brings tens of thousands of new jobs. The Las Vegas Valley has lost -132,000 jobs since April 2008. I am not optimistic that City Center can pull us out of this slump. (see Tourism/Gaming conditions below!) City Center is expected to draw in anywhere from 10,000-15,000 new jobs. Unfortunately around 8500 construction workers from the project will be unemployed so that really boils down to only 2500-7500 new jobs. Unemployment rate is painful yet again. While these numbers are looking VERY bad, I am seeing some changes in the Tourism/Gaming Sector which will help this sector in the long run if it is sustainable!!
- McCarran Airport Total Passengers (February 2010): 2,848,833 Year Change -6.2%
- Gaming Revenue (February 2010): $827,797,586, Year Change +16.5%
- Visitor Volume (February 2010): 3,143,414, Year Change -0.5%
- Convention Attendance (February 2010): 518,394, Year Change +11.1%
- Hotel/Motel Occupancy (February 2010): 79.7% Year Change -5.0%
My analysis: After rising in double digits for one month, Convention attendance is in the black again. This sector (tourism) needs to see some serious price corrections before we see a comeback. Corporate credit is not coming back any time soon. It will be hard to get convention attendance back up without corporate credit. Glad to see regular tourists are making their way here with the imbalance of the other numbers to replace the convention attendee numbers. Gaming numbers have increased and it seems like Las Vegas is quite possibly in the starting recovery phase with regular tourists finally making up for what we have lost in the gaming sector.
Sources: Salestraq, Home Builder's Research, Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, Nevada State Gaming Control Board, Nevada Department of Motor Vehicles, McCarran International Airport, Las Vegas Convention & Visitor's Authority, Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. My analysis is my humble opinion