Forgive me on the choppy post, but I thought I'd cut and paste two of my most recent blog posts regarding the market in the Missoula, Montana area. The 1st post was put online on April 23rd, the 2nd one I put up today.
4/23/2010:
With 1 week to go before the tax credit expires things are frantic to say the least, buyers are making offers left and right, and some houses are getting quite a bit of activity right now!
I thought it would be interesting to see how our market holds up with new buyer activity once this tax credit has expired. So, I took a quick look at the numbers today. Right now in our MLS as of the 23rd of April, we've got 831 active listings in Missoula, 190 under contract homes, and 67 sold in the last 30 days. That's a market absorption rate of about 15 months, suggesting over-supply. However we've always had over-supply in the early/mid spring, according to a report that the Missoula Organization of Realtors makes available to all agents that tracks these rates, the absorption rate last spring for the entire market was 13.29 and in 2008 it was 20.53.
As a refresher, the absorption rate tracks how long it would take for the entire listed inventory to sell based upon the last 30 days worth of activity. So for right now with an absorption rate in our market just over 15, there is 15 months worth of listed inventory currently for sale or under contract in our market. If there were no new listings to come out, and sales remained constant, 15 months from now there would be nothing for sale. Now clearly we know that wont happen, but it's a decent indicator of how saturated your market is. Anything over 12 months is a sign of over-supply, and I believe anything under 6 months is a fairly hot market.
I'm going to check these numbers again two weeks from Monday, what I'm really curious to see is if that number of 190 houses under contract homes changes much!
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5/3/2010:
As promised!
A week ago I checked and saw that in the greater Missoula area (not Lolo, Frenchtown, Bonner, or further beyond in those directions) had 190 houses that were pending sale.
This afternoon I pulled up the MLS and right now it shows that in those same MLS areas we have 201. So... a slight uptick, ho-hum...
However, there's something else to consider, how many of those 190 under contract listings on the 23rd have sold and closed over the last week? I checked those numbers and I was shocked to see that there were 41 sales according to the MLS. 41 in a week, wow!
So now lets apply those 41 homes sold. Removing 41 homes from the 190 that were pending on April 23rd and that leaves 149 houses still pending sale. Today we're at 201, so in the last week or so, we've had 52 more homes go under contract. Wowzers.
From here the tracking will get REAL interesting, seeing what activity goes on now that we're post-tax credit.
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