Great Article By Zillow

Real Estate Agent with Prudential Douglas Elliman

This quarter brought a mixed bag of results, with some slightly disappointing numbers on a national basis, but some bright spots in several large California markets.

The year-over-year rate of home value depreciation continued to shrink in March, even as home value changes remained negative on a month-over-month basis. The monthly rate of depreciation stayed unchanged from the prior month (see Figure1).

Year-over-year change in the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) was -3.8% in March, marking the shallowest change in home values since August 2007, while home values fell 0.3% from their February levels.  Rates of monthly depreciation have been relatively flat since January after worsening somewhat in late 2009 (the lowest level of monthly depreciation in recent years was reached in October, -0.21%).

We'd been hoping that we would see depreciation rates trend further toward zero during the first quarter, and the fact that this expectation hasn't materialized leads us to move our target for a national bottom in home values to the third quarter (previously the target was Q2).  Home values declined year-over-year in 106 of the 135 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) tracked by Zillow this quarter.

The number of homeowners losing their homes to foreclosure in March increased to 0.11% from a February level of 0.10%.  This is another record in Zillow's data beginning in 2000.  Negative equity remains high with 23.3 percent of all single family homes with mortgages underwater, up from 21.4 percent in fourth quarter.

Five California markets - LA, San Diego, San Francisco, Santa Barbara and Ventura - continued their streak of slightly positive monthly change. All five of those markets turned positive last April or May, and  home value levels at that time may prove to have been the bottom point. The markets have experienced between 3.1-3.9% appreciation in home values since their low points last year, but sustained total drops in home values of 30-36% between their market peaks and their low point last year.

We have no real change in near-term expectations: foreclosures, negative equity, and side-lined sellers getting back into the market now will keep supply up and upward price pressure at a minimum.  An L-shaped recovery with little price appreciation is getting closer, but we still expect to see a few more months of sustained decline.  After that, expect small changes in home values up and down from month to month.

Comments (10)

Ray Saenz
Exit Realty Laredo - Laredo, TX
Homes for Sale in Laredo, TX - Texas, Realtor

Erwin, that's a great article, zillow is doing a lot of work to please any kind of consumer trying to buy or sell real estate.


May 10, 2010 05:49 PM
Randy Dodd
Rosanna's Realty - Abilene, TX

Zillow may work where youre at. Please cross check your numbers. The numbers Zillow Trulia and other places spit out are way off in this market. Even Active Rain is funky I'm Texas and ranked number three in the county of three thousand agents. I know what I do (investors and deal makes looking to clean up the mess left behind) I'm the best Realtor in Abilene but I'm by no means the number three.. ZILLOW IS NOT A FRIEND.

May 10, 2010 06:12 PM
John Pusa
Berkshire Hathaway Home Services Crest - Glendale, CA
Your All Time Realtor With Exceptional Service

Erwin - Thank you for sharing a very good blog.

May 10, 2010 06:27 PM
Elite Home Sales Team
Elite Home Sales Team OC - Corona del Mar, CA
A Tenacious and Skilled Real Estate Team

It is something I agree with Randy on check out the figures don't just quote them.

May 10, 2010 06:30 PM
Randy Dodd
Rosanna's Realty - Abilene, TX

That picture make my head look big or what? Whats the deal woth that... i need to change it i guess..

May 10, 2010 06:41 PM
J. Philip Faranda
J. Philip Faranda (J. Philip R.E. LLC) Westchester County NY - Briarcliff Manor, NY

Denver was one of the first places the NY Times reported as where the bubble first burst. Good to see them in the black on that chart. 

May 11, 2010 12:03 AM
Erwin Giron
Prudential Douglas Elliman - Medford, NY

Thank you for all the responses, zillow is not as bad as you make it sound Randy, I'm well aware of their numbers are a off (about 4% in my market). Having said that I think Zillow is a great tool for all of us, I encourage my sellers to check Zillow and I also use it on my listing appts, all of use like information specially when is free! in today's market is all about TRASPARENCY and there is not a better way of being transparent than providing information for our clients.

Its not about us, its about our clients!

May 11, 2010 03:45 AM
Letitia Stevenson
BHHS Fox & Roach | - Greenville, DE
Listing Agent DE/PA/MD, Digital Marketer & Coach

Erwin, Stopping by to Welcome to Active Rain! Active Rain is a great place to share your knowledge, expertise and thoughts, as well as network and learn so much from the vast pool of talent already onboard.

Welcome Aboard and Much Success!

May 21, 2010 02:21 PM
Erwin Giron
Prudential Douglas Elliman - Medford, NY

Thank you Lettia. its been fun so far

May 23, 2010 03:03 PM
Letitia Stevenson
BHHS Fox & Roach | - Greenville, DE
Listing Agent DE/PA/MD, Digital Marketer & Coach

Hi Erwin, I would like to invite you to subscribe to my ActiveRain Blog by clicking here Subscribe to Letitia's Blog.

Also, I recommend that you check out the following posts/resources to get you going here on ActiveRain - if you haven't already done so:

  1. ActiveRain Point System
  2. Blogging and Time Management
  3. ActiveRain Guide
  4. ActiveRain Manual
  5. ActiveRain Starter Kit
  6. Getting Started on ActiveRain
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  8. How to Jazz Up Your Blog
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All the Best! Letitia

Sep 20, 2010 04:41 AM