Liquidity Crisis...Margin Calls...WHAT IS GOING ON????

By
Mortgage and Lending with DNJ / Gateway Mortgage

Mortgage Financing...What's Going On?

Anyone watching or reading the financial news this weekend, over the last few days and weeks has seen a lot of anguish and dismay over the state of the mortgage industry. In fact, one of the larger lenders in the US, American Home Mortgage, was forced to shut down operations last week. But why? What is happening, and most importantly, what does all this mean to you if you are in the industry or thinking of buying or refinancing a home in the Raleigh, Cary of the Triangle? Let me try to share my opinion so that you understand the truth behind the headlines.

Over the past several years, many loans were made to homeowners with somewhat non-traditional or "non-conforming" situations, be it a poor credit history, inability to document income, or any number of factors that do not fit within the traditional "box" for home loans. These loans are often called "Sub-Prime", or "Alt-A", meaning that they were somewhat riskier in nature than A credit, prime, or traditional loans. Another type of "non-conforming" home loan is one where the credit and income might be perfectly fine, but the loan amount is higher than $417,000 (which is the current maximum loan that can be done using pools of money from mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). If the loan amount is higher, it can certainly be done - it's called a "jumbo loan" - but the end money does not come from Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac...it comes from private institutions that are not government sponsored like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

In Raleigh non-conforming loan product rates popped significantly higher in the last week. Here's the scoop.

The end investor for "Sub-Prime" or "Alt-A" loans will charge a premium for taking on a pool of these loans, because they know that traditionally, they might have a higher rate of default and delinquent payments within that risky pool. But lately, default and foreclosure has been on the rise - partly due to the fact that with credit tightening and a shifting national real estate market (FYI - Forbes recently cited Raleigh as the best place to sell a house), many troubled homeowners nationally are unable to refinance or sell in order to get out of trouble. So now, these end institutions are demanding a much higher "risk premium" for taking on these pools of loans, as they see the rates of default are climbing higher.

But since these institutions are purchasing these pools of loans sometimes months after the borrower has actually closed at a given rate, this increase to the risk premium means that instead of paying $101K for a $100K loan that will bear interest, they may only be willing to pay $95K for that $100K mortgage to account for the risk. Now multiply that times thousands upon thousands of loans...and you have millions upon millions of dollars in loss for the company trying to sell the pool at a much lower price than they were expecting. This is called a "liquidity crisis", and is exactly what happened to American Home Mortgage - there was no mismanagement, but they simply got caught holding too many "hot potato" loans, forced to sell them at massive losses...and eventually they had to make the decision to close the doors and stop the bleeding.

Further, even when a lender is able to take some losses, they may be subject to a "margin call". This means that as their losses and risk premiums increase, the value of their loan portfolio decreases. As the value decreases, the credit lines that are secured by those portfolios begin to issue margin calls as the value of the asset that they are secured on is now diminished. This is exactly like margin calls in the Stock market. If you have a loan against a Stock that is losing value, you will get a "margin call" and need to pay down the loan, as the underlying Stock is losing too much value to be considered adequate collateral any longer. So for the big lenders, as their portfolio is losing value due to increased risk premiums and losses...the margin calls start coming in, and they are required to pay down their balances. In turn, this means that they have less availability to fund their new loans, which then exacerbates the problem.

In response to seeing this situation play out in the demise of American Home Mortgage, lenders of other non-conforming loan products increased their interest rates dramatically almost overnight to be better prepared - and likely over-prepared - for increased risk premiums down the road. Even though loans above $417,000 are not presently suffering from increased delinquencies like the "Sub-Prime" and "Alt-A" loans are, these rates popped higher as well, because they are being purchased by smaller private entities that can't afford to take on any margin of risk.

What happens next, and what should you do now?

The present situation will likely settle out over the coming year, and the rates on products that have moved so significantly higher now should trend lower down the road as delinquency rates stabilize. But here are a few important things to do right now.

First, even if you are not presently in the market for a home loan of any type, call me or visit my site at www.FreeRaleighMortgageInfo.com to make sure that your credit standing is as solid as possible. Many people I talk to about home loans didn't expect they would have a need, and didn't plan in advance to ensure their credit would qualify them for the best possible financing. With no immediate need for a home loan, time will be on your side...why don't we take a few minutes together and just make sure you are prepared, should a need arise down the road?

Next, if you are in the market for a home loan, or know someone who is - know that now is time to be working with a real qualified professional who can keep you informed of changes in the market and get your loan funded quickly. Now is NOT the time to be playing the risky game of trying to scour the entire nation to find someone who promises to save you a measly amount on costs, or deliver a rate that seems too good to be true. Your home and your financing are just too important, and times have changed. I am here to help and advise during these volatile times - and would welcome calls from you, your friends, family, neighbors or coworkers.

Kevin Martini

http://www.freeraleighmortgageinfo.com/

Comments (8)

Brian Schulman
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, Lancaster PA - Lancaster, PA
Lancaster County PA RealEstate Expert 717-951-5552
Kevin, excellent explanation of the liquidity crisis and margin calls.
Aug 05, 2007 11:00 PM
Rob Wesler
Harborview Financial Partners, LLC - Land O Lakes, FL

Jim Cramer puts it so elloquently...

 

http://youtube.com/watch?v=wtjkWJzxdQU
Aug 05, 2007 11:01 PM
Mike Jaquish
Realty Arts - Cary, NC
919-880-2769 Cary, NC, Real Estate

Super explanation, Kevin.

Does this increase liquidity for A borrowers?  Or will they suffer too?

Aug 05, 2007 11:04 PM
» Bill Burress Nationwide Mortgage Originator
» Bill Burress Nationwide Mortgage Originator - Fort Myers, FL

Kevin:

Good explanation.

Aug 05, 2007 11:06 PM
Lanette Branch
RE/MAX Components - Fallston, MD
Bel Air, MD Real Estate Agent

Hi Kevin,

Thank you for such a great explanation, in English.  I feel much more enlightened.

Aug 05, 2007 11:27 PM
Jim Hogan
The Loan Source - Sandy Springs, GA
Atlanta Loan Source
Kevin,  Awesome job putting this kind of information out to the community.  It is easy to look back now and foresee the current problem, but we should not forget that one of the primary "engine's" that fueled the worlds best economy over the past few years was the home building, home buying and home lending industries.  This is a short term problem that will (is) adjusting to gain investor confidence.  Keep up the good work.
Aug 05, 2007 11:49 PM
Kevin Martini
DNJ / Gateway Mortgage - Raleigh, NC

Thank you for the responses...Mike - i beleive this will beleed in to the "a" paper world.  In fact, fannie Mae has posted new u/w guidlenes that will o into effect in September relating to how someone must qualify for an I/O loan.

Jim - your comments are so true...7 of the last 8 recessions in the USA were fueld by real estate.

 

 

 

 

Aug 06, 2007 01:31 AM
Eleanor Thorne
Equity Resources - Cary, NC
Equity Resources 919-649-5058
Did you see the FORTY foreclosures in the Cary News on Weds??  Scary stuff!
Oct 04, 2007 06:33 AM