How to Short The US Housing Market and Throw The Global Economy Into a Recession

By
Real Estate Technology with BoomTown

I’ve been writing a bit over at Housingwatch about the recent news surrounding reasons behind housing market crash, viewed through the 20/20 hindsight lenses we all posses.  While this article was originally published on April 24th 2010 on my site at TheXbroker, I wanted to bring it to Active Rain too because I enjoy the comments and subsequent engagement so much.  I even stripped out all the 'colorful' language a.k.a. 'swear/cuss' words and any analogies that could be misconstrued as sexist, ageist, religiously biased, insensitive to animals or otherwise...so as not to incite any raucous exchanges, be they in the comments or in follow-up posts, between members who may be offended by such (at least for one post).  I would like people to focus on the relevant content of the entire article and links within, not just 4-5 words...call me an idealist.  Anyway- on with the article...

You can’t make this stuff up:

Magnetar from WikipediaMagnetar Capital, a Chicago based hedge fund with an epically ironic name , went into business in 2005 at about the time that Sub-Prime mortgages were recognized as being ‘toxic’ in the sense that they don’t perform, as in- Homeowners don’t make their payments and investors don’t get paid.  Nonetheless, they started buying up these toxic loans (through various conduits) and bundling them up in Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO’s), creating huge demand and liquidity for 'toxic' mortgages to put people in.

 

All Magnetar CDO’s contained the worst kind of mortgages…the No Income No Asset, No Job, Low FICO, short term ARM variety located in states with the highest appreciation mortgages…the mortgages that default like the consumers they gave them to had no income or jobs with a poor track record of paying debts back.

 

Magnetar subsequently bought Credit Default Swaps (CDS’s) or insurance policies against the 'toxic' CDO’s (they created) just in case they defaulted.  CDS’s cost money in the form of premiums, just like you pay on your car insurance.  Magnetar used the higher yields from the CDO’s they created to pay the CDS insurance premiums…until the CDO’s defaulted that is…then they collected the insurance policies payout.  These insurance policies paid out far more to the hedge fund than any  loss they would incur if, err, when the CDO defaulted.

This became known as ‘The Magnetar Trade’ as is being pegged as the primary reason the US Housing market crashed so hard and pulled the world economy down with it.

For review:  The Magnetar Trade strategy was to fuel the marketplace by purchasing 'toxic' mortgage securities (creating liquidity and loans) bundle them up into CDO’s, achieve a AAA rating from the relative agencies, sell them to investors as such, then bet Big Money on the fact the CDO would default and collect said Big Money when they did.  It was simple, even an elegant piece of financial engineering...and legal.

Almost every major institution on Wall Street played this game, executing ‘Magnetar Trades’…Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan, Lehman Brothers even The Streets most prestigious firm: Goldman Sachs.  John Paulson of Paulson and Co. created the Abacus Fund for Goldman.  Abacus was architected after the Magnetar blueprint.

Recently the SEC decided to bring a lawsuit against Goldman Sachs alleging fraud around the Paulson created Abacus hoo-ha.  The core of the suit alleges Goldman deceived and sold investors on a security that Paulson helped design to fail, and made a bunch of money because of it.

Regardless of lawsuits and agendas, there is no getting around the fact that these sort of ‘investment strategies by ‘Wall Street’ negatively effected millions of homeowners…never mind the investors and investment banks.  It’s not hard to draw a pretty straight line between Wall Street greed and the implosion of the US Housing market.

I don’t think the lawsuit sticks but it raises an incredible amount of awareness in the public arena around a sophisticated and ethically challenged Wall Street play that negatively effected millions of homeowners.  That’s great for pushing an agenda, especially a political one as the timing of all this is obviously politically motivated…but this isn’t a political post- I pro-actively filibuster this article from political based arguments so it doesn’t turn into a 300 comment finger pointing contest.

Consumers were either unwitting pawns or consumed by greed and subsidized this game of sophisticated capitalism…at least that’s whats going to be played out in the press on on TV.

So, will a public growing more weary by the day of Big Government side favorably with Big Government in having its way with Wall Street?

 

Comments (19)

Maria Morton
Platinum Realty - Kansas City, MO
Kansas City Real Estate 816-560-3758

Excellent recap, Jeff. Reblog.

Jun 01, 2010 03:48 PM
Fred Hookham
Keller Williams - Milton, WI

Thanks, Jeff, for the most concise explanation of the mess that I've seen. I know I'm not the only one following the search for the causes, but more importantly, many want to know what is going to be done to prevent a reoccurrence.

I'm normally a small-government-is-better guy, but I can't see any other solution than to regulate these big players who seem to have no regard for anything except profit. We've all heard the too-big-to-fail excuse, now it's time for the too-big-to-play-reckless lesson. Just like we have special laws for 18 wheelers because of their size, we need a few new laws for the ethically challeged on Wall Street.

Jun 01, 2010 03:56 PM
Mike Jones
SUNSTREET MORTGAGE, LLC (BK-0907366, NMLS 145171) - Tucson, AZ
Mike Jones NMLS 223495

Jeff,

This is good stuff.  There's a whole lot of posturing going on, isn't there?

Mike in Tucson

Jun 01, 2010 04:26 PM
Pippa Mac
Chevaux Group Realtor, The Woodlands and Spring - The Woodlands, TX
The Woodlands TX Real Estate

Jeff ... I saw a program on 60 minutes about a year ago that really showed this (different corporation) kind of thing in detail ... It takes alot of thought to come up with all that planning to rip people off!

Jun 01, 2010 04:31 PM
Katerina Gasset
Get It Done For Me Virtual Services - Wellington, FL
Get It Done For Me Virtual Services

Jeff- Ah, I have been heavily engaged in research on this issue and my oh my, how the same players keep showing up, over and over again. Well, when people call others conspiracy theorists for actually calling it for what it is, what do they call us when it is proven the case? And what do we call those who walked around with their heads in the sand, or their tails between their legs? Or maybe it is just that too many people have been conditioned for far too long- that government is to be trusted and knows best and does not sleep in bed with banks and big business. 

The outcry towards Wall Street is the same as during FDR years- where they wanted to hang the rich out to dry. Funny thing is, I never met anyone who gets their paycheck from a poor person. I just came back from our homeschool convention and one of the seminars I went to was a professor of economics who discussed this very subject. He suggested we stop calling rich people rich and start calling them productive. So that is what I now will say. 

I hate the banksters but not because of the homeowners. I hate the banksters for the same reasons that Thomas Jefferson did. He warned us over 200 years ago to not go into debt and servitude to the banks. My feelings about banks has nothing to do with money and capitalism since I am a capitalist all the way- but rather about the abuse of our capitalist society and their lust for control. When big biz like the banks sleep in bed with Washington, that is no longer capitalism. Banks also did not lay down their arms and surrender to NAR in their plans to get into the real estate business so that they could treat more customers like crap. Their bankster lobby groups are alive and well, they may have lost the battle but they plan on winning the war. 

Regulation is exactly what got us into the mess, regulation and demands on more subprime mortgages to be handed out to anyone that breathed. Pressure on the banks to give out these mortgages by the powers that be. 

Don't kid yourselves for one moment to think that MORE regulations are the answer. Regulations are only for the rest of us. Those in power do not obey their own regulations and they are above the law so they think. The players that are making the rule book now are the very same players who did not apply the rule of law back then. They just looked the other way.

All we had to do and still have to do is allow the market to correct itself and stop all the stealing and lying of mortgage backed securities of zero worth and of swaps and all the rest of the garbage that they want to use to influence the market. Yes, it would hurt for a while, but we will rise above it as we always do.  Katerina

Jun 01, 2010 04:39 PM
Patrick Harfst
Realty Executives - Phoenix AZ - Gilbert, AZ

Jeff -

Perfectly written - great job!

 

Jun 01, 2010 04:43 PM
Nate Gerard
Keller Williams Premier - Stillwater, MN
CDPE, East Metro Twin Cities Realtor

I don't think we'll actually see any real muckraking of wall street. There is too much money tied up on both sides of the isle for the Federal Government to force any real change. I agree fully that the problem was and is greed.

I'm not sure how this developed in our society but it is rampant today. The only real antidote I see is controlling the only thing we can - ourselves. So long as we keep greed out of our own lives we at least end up being the change we want to see in the world.

Keep up the good writing!

Jun 01, 2010 05:17 PM
Denise Hamlin, Broker/Owner
Cardinal Realty ~ 319-400-0268 - Iowa City, IA
Helping Happy Clients Make Smart Choices

Hi Jeff ~ As true as this all may be, chances are that long term absolutely nothing will change. Katerina brings up FDR, which I think just about makes my point. They were talking about it then, we're talking about it now. What's the difference? Regulation won't change anything. People motivated by greed and power will find new and innotative ways to play the system. The pendulum swings one way, then the other and nothing changes...

Don't get me wrong, I don't think the end of the world is nigh. I just think we'll roll along dysfunctionally as we always have.

Denise

 

 

Jun 01, 2010 05:47 PM
Russel Ray, San Diego Business & Marketing Consultant & Photographer
Russel Ray - San Diego State University, CA

It's all in the past, and nothing will matter after December 21, 2012, anyway since that's when the world will end. LOL

Jun 01, 2010 07:23 PM
Missy Caulk
Missy Caulk TEAM - Ann Arbor, MI
Savvy Realtor - Ann Arbor Real Estate

Jeff, laughing out loud at your first 2 paragraphs.

Jeff tamed by Activerain posters. Ditto at Katerinas comment.

Jun 02, 2010 12:10 AM
Katerina Gasset
Get It Done For Me Virtual Services - Wellington, FL
Get It Done For Me Virtual Services

Russel- The past has a habit of repeating itself. :)

Jun 02, 2010 04:01 AM
Katerina Gasset
Get It Done For Me Virtual Services - Wellington, FL
Get It Done For Me Virtual Services

Nate- Yes, Self government is the most important left out detail that most people do not want to accept responsibility for or over. Self government is the first and most important government and the only one that has meaning in the big picture. 

Jun 02, 2010 04:02 AM
Jeff Corbett
BoomTown - Charleston, SC

@Missy- Just for one post :)

@Katerina- 'The past may not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme' -Twain  One of my favorite quotes.

 

I'm sure 'Financial Innovation' will continue, actually it must...

Jun 02, 2010 07:16 AM
Denise Hamlin, Broker/Owner
Cardinal Realty ~ 319-400-0268 - Iowa City, IA
Helping Happy Clients Make Smart Choices

Hmm, what does it mean that this post has 13 comments and your estrogen infused markets has 78? Was that one featured BTW?  I think people like to be mad at you Jeff. Lucky that you just tamed it down for one post!

While I'm here... History may not repeat itself? It may make for a great quote, but that's about it. History repeating itself is a self evident truth on just about any topic under the sun. Take England playing soccer against Germany in major tournaments for instance. They have never won a game when it came to shooting penalties. History tells us this is unlikely to change any time soon. This has been going on for so long that by now it's in the genes. (You like your analagies, so I'm sure you'll appreciate me taking this onto a different plain). And believe me, I wish I was wrong about that. I would LOVE to eat my words in the World Cup later this month!

Denise

Jun 02, 2010 01:59 PM
Jeff Corbett
BoomTown - Charleston, SC

Astute observations on many levels Denise...

'That' post was featured...as was this one for about 8 hours, then mysteriously vanished from the board.  If it had stayed, there would have certainly been more comments as that is the nature of being on the most heavily trafficked page on AR.  

I like to play games and test theories with articles, their content, context and considering the venue where they are displayed...mainly for my bemusement.  I've been a member of AR since shortly after the network launched, its a fascinating petri dish to streak...I have been and always will be a fan.  

The 'Estrogen' post was rattled off in about 15 mins, knowing full well the title, colorful language analogies et. al. would garner 'negative' attention from those who don't know me.  If I would have simply stated that geopolitical headlines move the mortgage markets and cited examples such as the dollar vs the euro, Germany's fiscal policy changes and North Korea beating the war drum...pffft.  Thats boring to listen too let alone read.  

This post was far denser in research, keywords and overall quality.  It was a summary of a series of posts I was paid to write, one of which was featured on AOL's home page (yes there still is an AOL, to the tune of 45M Uniques/mo, much to my surprise).  The topic and subsequent content was pretty deep and I imagine esoteric to many folks...if you don't know the material its not easy to wrap your head around unless you take the time to read the deep links.  

Anyway, my point being is that if you don't stand up and create a signal louder than the rest of the noise, you're likely to get drowned out, never heard and hardly remembered.  I'll be back to my 'colorful' ways but thank you for helping me make a point :)

Jun 02, 2010 02:33 PM
Denise Hamlin, Broker/Owner
Cardinal Realty ~ 319-400-0268 - Iowa City, IA
Helping Happy Clients Make Smart Choices

You know the funny thing is Jeff that the estrogen post bugged me too, except for different reasons voiced by others. (I think mainly I found it condescending). Oddly enough though you're right, you did make yourself heard above the noise and you have my attention now. Look forward to you getting back to your 'colorful' ways and happy to help you make your point! (Off to subscribe now.;-)

Denise

Jun 02, 2010 04:11 PM
Lane Bailey
Century 21 Results Realty - Suwanee, GA
Realtor & Car Guy

I would disagree that the CDOs and CDSs were the root cause...  I think they were/are another symptom.  The disease is the debt.  Government, corporate and personal. 

And no matter how much regulation is put in place, creative types will find a way around the regs until they are so onerous that nobody can do business.  Ethics are what is lacking there... and if we don't have ethics in government and ethics on the part of individuals, why should we expect corporations to be ethical?

Jun 03, 2010 03:00 PM
Sharon Alters
Coldwell Banker Vanguard Realty - 904-673-2308 - Fleming Island, FL
Realtor - Homes for Sale Fleming Island FL

Jeff, thanks for the explanation of Magnetar and CDOs and CDSs. There will always be a way to game the system. The solution is to have people who have more of a conscience than greed and that is hard to come by. They regulated after the crash of '29 and thought they would avoid another meltdown. There is always another way to have a meltdown that they didn't think of. Less government, not more, please! Change some of the rules we already have or enforce them. Many aren't enforced that are already on the books.

'Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.' John Acton

Jun 03, 2010 05:36 PM
John MacArthur
Century 21 Redwood - Washington, DC
Licensed Maryland/DC Realtor, Metro DC Homes

i like both posts........i am not sure we will make it to december 2012....i don't understand much of this stuff....i don't know much of anything....i do know that the people with the money make the rules and they also break the rules........the rest of us eat cake.

Jun 04, 2010 08:02 AM

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