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When the real estate market finally cycles, will it be payback time for sellers?

By Richard Weisser

Real Estate Broker/Owner with Richard Weisser Realty

June 27, 2010 01:06 AM

Real estate is cyclical. There is no doubt about that. And although today’s buyer’s market is unprecedented, the market will inevitably shift into one in which sellers are in control.

Those that have been unable to sell during this down market will be set on vengeance for all of the low-ball offers and one-sided terms.

Additionally, since many of today’s buyer’s will at some point become sellers, there is a good chance that the “demand it all” philosophy will be in full force in the opposite direction.

It’s going to happen at some point. The only question is when.

And when it does, there is going to be heck to pay!

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Craig Rutman

Helping people in transition - Cary, NC

Raleigh, Cary, Apex area Realtor

fortunately, the Real Estate market is not like stocks: Buy low/ sell high. It's a parallel type of market: Buy low/ sell low. Buy high/ sell high. But in the end, you make some great points Richard. I'm looking forward to the next phase of the cycle.

Jun 27, 2010 11:52 AM

Neal Bloom

Brokered by eXp Realty LLC - Weston, FL

Realtor CRS-Weston FL Real Estate

Richard,

I don't think most sellers will think that way. Most sellers should know by now that they do not control market value....neither do buyers for that matter The bottom lines is value is determined by what the buyers and sellers are negotiating in the market but that still doesn't make it definite..... Of course the appraisers are really the ones who are controlling value. It sounds as if you are saying there might be spiteful sellers out there?..also we have a long long time before we see a shift back to a sellers market.

Jun 27, 2010 12:36 PM

Rhonda Mapp-Johns Creek Georgia Relocation & Neighborhood Expert

Keller Williams® Realty-Atl Partners-Johns Creek - Alpharetta, GA

I think it is all about "JOBS"! Until the high unemployment comes down, there's going to be fewer home buyers, no matter what kind of artificial home buyer tax incentive program they try to hook them with. Many with jobs are still worried about down-sizing or their position being eliminated.

The number of homes on the market in my market area has not really changed since this time last year. There is a lot of inventory on the market and the banks still have thousands in backlog of foreclosures to go here.

In my opinion, 2012-2013 could be the turning point of the real estate market. And even so it will take years to return to 2005 prices. Those homeowners that did 100% financing have long, long road to build any equity if they can hold on that long. I think we are going to see-saw for the next few years.

In a few subdivisions builders have bought up a few lots and started building but it is not the same product standards as the subdivision began with. The first homeowners in the subdivision are going to lose equity because the newer product is generally cheaper and of lesser quality.

Jun 27, 2010 01:50 PM

John Walters

Frank Rubi Real Estate - Slidell, LA

Licensed in Louisiana

I don't know Richard I think we are years away from this happening. We shall see.

Jun 27, 2010 02:04 PM

Patricia Aulson

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY HOME SERVICES Verani Realty NH Real Estate - Exeter, NH

Realtor - Portsmouth NH Homes-Hampton NH Homes

Ha....It'll be awhile before we have a "sellers market" again.

Patricia

Jun 27, 2010 02:52 PM

Marcy Moyer

eXp Realty of California Silicon Valley Probate, Trust, and Investment Sales - Mountain View, CA

Probate, Trust, and Investment Specialist

Love the picture. We already see it in our market. The best areas are seeing low inventory and multiple offers and the sellers are getting more demanding.

Marcy

Jun 27, 2010 03:11 PM

Tammie White, Broker

Franklin Homes Realty LLC - Franklin, TN

Franklin TN Homes for Sale

Boy I hope I don't run into any sharks like that.

Jun 27, 2010 04:28 PM

Terry Chenier

Homelife Glenayre Realty - Mission, BC

Richard,

It does go in cycles, but we're five years away at least.

Jun 27, 2010 05:25 PM

Terkel Sørensen

Real Estate Places - Temecula, CA

Realtor, 951.805.0773 , Bank owned and Short Sales

Funny reading this Richard.

Here in SW Riverside county... Temecula to be exact. We have no properties to sell - sure, there are short sales galore, but for properties you can bid on today and close in 30... Not much. Maybe 10 a week, so they go kinda hot.

I think the market here has turned, and we are seeing prices going back up. It's a good feeling.

Jun 27, 2010 07:59 PM

Laurie C. Bailey-Gates

Robert Paul Properties - Barnstable, MA

ABR, SFR

The more things change the more they stay the same. Many of the buyer's will be seller's and they will still want it all.

Jun 27, 2010 11:24 PM

Ginny Gorman

RI Real Estate Services ~ 401-529-7849~ RI Waterfront Real Estate - North Kingstown, RI

Homes for Sale in Southern RI and beyond

Interesting comments on your blog Richard...in my area i think it will be years before we see a turn around...we need jobs & we need demand for housing...will re-blog this post!

Jun 27, 2010 11:34 PM

The Scott Loper Team Bux-Mont Premier Properties

Keller Williams Real Estate - Montgomeryville - Lansdale, PA

Hi Richard,

The ironic part is the buyers who demanded the "world" when buying will also be equaling demanding when selling.

~Lisa

Jun 28, 2010 02:21 AM

Brian Bean

The Dream Big Team at Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Champions - Riverside, CA

Homeowner Advocate, Dream Big Team, S.Calif

Richard, if you are looking for a seller's market, make a trip to S. Calif. and work the under $250k range. Multiple offers on everything and many sellers (the banks and investors) make all manner of odd requests.

Jun 28, 2010 02:31 AM

Charlie Ragonesi

AllMountainRealty.com - Big Canoe, GA

Homes - Big Canoe, Jasper, North Georgia Pros

Interesting notion. I hope it is payback time for ME if sellers do ok along the way so be it . Nice post Richard

Jun 28, 2010 02:44 AM

Rick Schwartz

William Raveis Real Estate - Danbury, CT

Some sellers may want some kind of vengeance but sellers don't really control the price - even in a "seller's market". It's always about what the buyers are willing to pay - it's just than in low inventory situation the buyers are willing to pay more.

This isn't a cycle in the traditional sense - it's the new market.

As Ken (#15) said it's always about supply and demand. The market will shift to a seller's market when there are more buyers than inventory. There's a lot of inventory not yet on the market that will be hitting in he next 18 - 24 months so I don't see a shift for several years.

Jun 28, 2010 03:14 AM

Lyn Sims

Schaumburg, IL

Real Estate Broker Retired

What goes around, comes around. It will be interesting to see how today's buyers become sellers and how they behave in the market. I think that they expect to make a killing with top price & no terms for the buyers.

Jun 28, 2010 04:45 AM

Damon Gettier

Damon Gettier & Associates, REALTORS- Roanoke Va Short Sale Expert - Roanoke, VA

Broker/Owner ABRM, GRI, CDPE

Richard, I have a little more faith in the sellers than you do....I think most want to sell their homes not play games.

Jun 28, 2010 08:01 AM

Pam Turner, REALTOR®, e-PRO®, SFR

Century 21 Belk Realtors Dalton GA - Dalton, GA

I think sellers enjoyed their time a few years ago - but when the tides changed buyers have still been hesitant even with low prices and interest rates. In the boom time buyers were scarfing up everything on the market in spite of high prices. It's a confusing time.

Jun 29, 2010 12:49 AM

Richie Alan Naggar

people first...then business Ran Right Realty - Riverside, CA

agent & author

Today's home purchasers are paying what properties are truly worth. The banks will not have to foreclose anymore because there will be less properties to take back. To further support that statement, rents have caught up with mortgages making it easier to keep and rent instead of having to sell. There are exceptions and pockets dynamics everywhere......One thing stands out though. If you offer a good clean value, then you will always get a healthy response. Gone are the days where you can make a killing. We know this. Real Estate is returning to the land of long term investments and that will take time....until it stabilizes

Thank you

Jun 29, 2010 06:59 AM

Morris Massre

Pembroke Pines, FL

Real Estate Instructor Broward County Florida

I'm glad you brought this up because there is going to be hell to pay, but I don't think it's going to happen anytime soon, unfortunately.

Jun 29, 2010 12:18 PM