The stock market opened +102 points on the DJIA, the 10 yr note at 9:30 off 10/32 at 2.98% with mortgage prices -1/32 (.03 bp). As we have noted for the past few days the markets (bonds, mortgages, and equity markets) all over-extended and overdue for reversals. Not a trend change though, just that markets are in need of some bounce.
At 10:00 the first of only two key economic data points this week; the June ISM services sector index was expected to hit at 55.0 frm 55.4 in May. As reported the index fell to 53.8; the new orders component at 54.4 frm 57.1, prices index at 53.8 frm 60.6 and employment index fell to 49.7 frm 50.4. On the margin the data supports the now consensus view that the economy is struggling. Any index over 50 is considered expansion while under 50 contraction s was the employment component. With oversold indicators in the equity market there was no negative reaction to the report. The key stock indexes actually improved immediately after the report.
Australia's central bank out this morning saying the economy is continuing to improve and will not lower rates after six rate hikes over the past 18 months. The comments out of Australia were reasons for the better equity markets. Got to have a reason; even if it is as innocuous as news from down under.
Talk this morning about the bank stress tests coming in Europe; the tests have just started and already there is concern that unlike the tests run on US banks, the tests in Europe may not be thorough enough to ease fears of bank problems among the largest banks in the EU. So far the ECB has not made it clear as to what the tests will cover and how deeply they will penetrate in the under belly of the books with many concerned the EU banks may be "hiding" bad debts.
This Week's Economic Calendar:
Wednesday;
7:00 am weekly MBA mortgage applications
Thursday;
8:30 weekly jobless claims (-12K to 460K
3:00 May consumer credit (-$3.1B)
Friday;
10:00 May wholesale inventories (+0.4%)
We expected it most of last week, this morning we have it---a strong rally in equities and some selling of treasuries; mortgage market are so far holding well with the 10 yr lower in price but not much so far.
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