According to the Idaho Statesman, Ada County housing prices have risen despite our slump in the market.
Ada County’s median home price rose 2 percent in July despite the 12th consecutive month of slumping single-family home sales, according to industry data released Monday.
The source for this information is Intermountain MLS. This pdf document contains some very specific data that illustrates which areas of Ada County are pulling down the largest number of sales. There’s also an analysis of new construction compared to existing.
The most important part of this Genius Realty BLOG entry is this custom chart I put together. This shows July SOLD vs what’s available to buy… “The Active Listings”.
Yellow bar shows what sold in July as a percent of the total number of homes sold. The distribution is over the price interval.
Green bar shows what’s for sale today. Distributed over the the same price interval.
Do you see the disconnect here? What the market is supplying isn’t what the market is buying. The buyer market is outstripping the lower end (below $200K) by 13%. On the flip side, the market is out supplying above $250K by a similar perportion.
The correction to come needs to be from the supply side. I don’t predict buyers are going to step up anytime soon.
Builders need adjust the supply to fill the buyer demand and existing home sellers need to lower their prices or face long market times. I don’t expect this to happen within the next 24 months. In part, my reasoning is the developer pipe line is full of the same and builders are already committed to overpriced lots that can’t support lower priced homes.
Somethings got to give and I think I hear the vulchers taking to the sky’s.
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