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Recently the Las Vegas Review Journal ran a story which concluded that there were 12,838 "foreclosure filings" in June here in Nevada. If this were to be believed, we should conclude that there might be more than 150,000 foreclosures in Nevada in 2010! The article was, at best, highly misleading.
The "RJ" article indicates, without explanation, that 5,140 of these filings were "Notice of Default." This means that they cannot be foreclosed for at least four months (usually much longer). Another 4,736 were "Notice of Sale." These can't be foreclosed for at least 22 days (often longer). That leaves just under 3,000 actual foreclosures in Nevada in June. Yes, that is still a tragically number but it's a far cry from the almost 13,000 the "RJ" was hysterically screaming about.
If we use the Review Journal's statistical method, we would count everything several times, which would give us th at ridiculous 150,000 annual figure. In actual fact, if there are 3,000 foreclosures a month, that will be 36,000 by the end of the year. That's less than one quarter of the "RJ's" number!
The article also stated that one in 17 Nevada households received a "foreclosure" notice during the first six months of 2010. With just over 900,000 households total, this would be about 65,000 foreclosure notices. The real statistics indicate there were only about half as many number so once again they are counting both types of notices sent to one household as two foreclosures.
Imagine if a store owner counted everyone who walked through the door, in or out, as a customer. If 12 people came into the store, he would believe he had 24 customers. That would be foolish and so is the type of statistical analysis used in the "RJ's" article.
This type of irresponsible reporting causes fear and worry in a state that has more than i t's share of both. We, as consumers, must realize that bad n! ews sell s newspapers but it often does a very bad job of informing the public..
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Nevada is suffering through one of the highest unemployment rates in the Nation. The two big questions on everyone's minds are how did we get here and how long will this last. The answer to the second question will depend on a lot of factors but Las Vegas will not fully recover until people in other states and countries start to feel confident enough to visit here again. How we got into this mess is a lot easier to understand.
As you can see in the above chart, our labor force (purple bars) grew dramatically from 2000 through 2009 and has only fallen slightly this year.
Employment (green bars) also grew dramatically but only until 2007. In 2008 it leveled off. Since that time we have suffered through a significant decline.
If the labor force hadn't grown so much after employment peaked in 2007, we would probably have an unemployment rate at or below the national average.
This is a case of Las Vegas being just too darn attractive. People kept moving here even as the jobs started to disappear. Some have moved away but many remain. Ultimately these are some of the people who will help write the next exciting chapter in Las Vegas' always entertaining story.
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Real estate theorists have a standard measure for determining the relative condition of any real estate market. This is referred to as Months Of Inventory (MOI). Here's how it works. You take the total number of homes currently for sale (11,165) and divide that by the number that sold that month (4,108). This tells us that if no more homes were listed, it would take 2.7 months to sell everything. That is the MOI.
We are told that if the MOI is much over six months, we have too much inventory (supply) and price should fall because high supply causes a Buyer's Market. In January of 2008 we had 27 Months Of Inventory. Prices fell. Boy did they fall.
From four to six Months Of Inventory gives us a Balanced Market and prices should stabilize. We saw those levels of MOI by the beginning of 2009 and prices had stopped free falling.
For more than a year our MOI has be en well under four (as low as 2.4) so shouldn't prices be going up? The answer is "Yes... but."
Here's the catch. Inventory levels have been driven down by investors snapping up the foreclosures and short sales at bargain basement prices. With unemployment high and few "move up" sellers (those with equity), our real estate market is not behaving as it normally should. Until the Las Vegas employment market starts to recover, the real estate market will continue to exhibit this sustained combination of low inventory and low prices. This situation clearly violates the law of supply and demand.
There is a tectonic aspect to all this. Just like a geologic fault line, the upward price pressure is building in Las Vegas. When the conditions are right, the shift will take place with stunning speed and prices will accelerate at a dizzying pace.
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Any property that is bank owned (foreclosure) or a short sale is classed as a Distressed Property. Over the last couple of years Las Vegas has gained unwanted national attention as the epicenter for distressed properties. That is changing.
This graph shows that foreclosures are becoming far less important in the Las Vegas real estate market. After peaking in early 2009, foreclosures, as a percentage of all sales, have steadily fallen. The percentage of foreclosures for sale has also decreased significantly.
Short sales will soon replace foreclosures as the biggest factor in the Las Vegas market. Although the percentage of listings that are short sales has leveled off since getting close to 50% in January, their percentage of sales has experienced a steady increase since the spring of 2008.
CLIENT's_Fname, if you know anyone weighing their home sale options, I would appreciate the opportunity to speak with them. As you know, I will give them fair, honest, and knowledgeable advice.
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There are currently over 20,000 Real Estate Licensees here in Clark County. There are almost 12,000 Realtors®. That's a lot of choices and I am honored that you have chosen me as your Las Vegas real estate professional.
In addition to being a great honor, it is a big responsibility. I am absolutely dedicated to providing you, and anyone you feel confident to refer to me, with the highest level of professional real estate service. Nothing less than that is acceptable.
CLIENT's_Fname, I hope this newsletter contributes to your knowledge of the exciting and dynamic Las Vegas Real Estate Market.
Please call me at 702-436-1011 or email me at missey524@aol.com and let me know what you think of this Newsletter. Thanks.
Melissa Towbin
702-436-1011
 
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Interest rates and Las Vegas home prices are at historic lows. You can buy a lot of home for around $250,000. Here are the numbers:
Conventional Financing:
$250,000 Purchase Price
$50,000 Down payment (20% is required)
$200,000 Mortgage loan
4.5% Interest rate (FICO of 720+)
$1,015 Principal and interest
FHA Financing:
$250,000 Purchase Price
$8,750 Down payment (3.5% is required)
$241,250 Mortgage loan
4.5% Interest rate (FICO of 620+)
&nbs p; $1,250 Principal and interest (+ MIP)
VA Financing:
$250,000 Purchase Price
$1 Down payment (Seller must contribute)
$250,000 Mortgage loan
4.75% Interest rate (FICO of 620+)
$1,305 Principal and interest (+ funding)
CLIENT's_Fname, please call me at 702-436-1011 for the payment on a lower or higher priced home.
(This assumes a FICO Score as indicated. For lower scores, higher rates may apply. Payments do not include taxes, insurance, and homeowner's association, if any, since these can vary significantly).
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get this
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