I subscribe to a quarterly statistical report specific to West Cobb real estate sales. The 2nd quarter 2010 numbers have just been released by Chartmaster Services and include the following:
- Sales of single family detached houses January through June were +3.9% above those of the same period last year
- Monthly 2010 sales have been higher in each month than in the comparable months of 2009 - until May and June. The expiration of government homebuyer incentives at the end of April have contributed to the slower sales during May and June
- It's important to watch sales during the 3rd quarter 2010 to see if the lower numbers from May and June signaled the start of a renewed downtrend
- Foreclosed properties made up a slightly smaller percentage of total W. Cobb sales in the 2nd of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009.
- However, distressed sales (foreclosures + short sales) represented almost 40% of all 2nd quarter sales in the <$200K price range.
- Foreclosure sales affect on non-foreclosure sales prices - As the number of foreclosure sales has increased, the median sales price of non-foreclosure properties has declined
- The portion of sales which were distressed sales remained 19% or higher in all price ranges below one million, continuing to impact sales prices, seller concessions and time on market
- Segmenting sales by price range and new vs. resale shows that there was an increase in resale sales above $200K and a decline in new home sales above $200k during the 2nd quarter of 2010 compared to the 2nd quarter of 2009
- The median sales price in the 2nd quarter of 2010 was -2.4% below that of the 2nd quarter of 2009, showing that price resistance was still present in the market even though sales were increasing slightly
- Sellers were forced to negotiate away even more of their original list prices in order to reach a contract agreement as buyer price resistance increased in a market changed by foreclosures, short sales, higher listing inventories and tighter credit
- The supply of listings has continued to decline; there were -3% fewer homes on the market in W. Cobb at the end of the 2nd quarter of 2010 compared to the same time last year.
- Using a 3 month average of 2nd quarter 2010 sales yields a 9.6 month supply, meaning that it would take more than 9 months to sell the current inventory of listings at the current sales rate, if no new listings came on the market. A "balanced" market is usually considered to be at 6 months of inventory.
It's natural to experience a slow down in sales immediately following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit. And, this goes right along with the slower traffic most sellers are experiencing. The last week of July, I enjoyed an increase in phone calls and emails about my listings plus initial contact from a few new buyers. I'm hopeful these are signs of a healthy upcoming 3rd quarter.
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